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Right tool, afaik, but GIGO.
Look at the data going in.
If they had included all the CERA/IHS/USGS rehash studies, they could have pushed the probability of <2034 to near zero.
What we need to feed is:
- independent (i.e. done without other studies data)
- different methodology (e.g. bottom up, HL, economic, loglets, whatnot)
- credible (i.e. now back of the envelope calculations)
...studies. Also, for balance measure, we would probably need also to include some earlier estimates that have been proven wrong (too early), because it is likely that some of the other late peak estimates are wrong too (assuming somewhat normal distribution, even if tailed).
Then we MIGHT get some useful data. Perhaps. Agree?
Sounds like a plan. I'd love to see that done.
IMO, exactly right SamuM. A mean calculated from results produced with such disparate methodologies, has little value. Many of the studies (e.g. CERA) use data or assumptions that are demonstrably incorrect, or use methodologies that are irrelevant. Such results should be excluded from any mean that is calculated. Even then, a mean is of limited significance as most Contributors who have done detailed analyses and leading commentators (e.g. westexas) seem to be homing in on a narrow window of "nowish" to 2010.
The most interesting thing about this, is that it raises awareness of this probability amongst the MSM. It will be interesting to see how this develops and its effect on oil prices (now towards $66), esp. combined with Iran's antics with the captured sailors. It's almost as if they are trying to stir up antagonism and strengthen excuses for an attack later this year.
I don't necessarily agree that you want independent data in this kind of averaging. If many experts agree with a particular line of analysis and write papers supporting each other, then it makes sense to take the fact that that is the widespread consensus into consideration. Anyone who fails to recognize that near-term Peak Oil is very much a minority view is deluding themselves. The averaging process should reflect that reality.