IMO, exactly right SamuM. A mean calculated from results produced with such disparate methodologies, has little value. Many of the studies (e.g. CERA) use data or assumptions that are demonstrably incorrect, or use methodologies that are irrelevant. Such results should be excluded from any mean that is calculated. Even then, a mean is of limited significance as most Contributors who have done detailed analyses and leading commentators (e.g. westexas) seem to be homing in on a narrow window of "nowish" to 2010.

The most interesting thing about this, is that it raises awareness of this probability amongst the MSM. It will be interesting to see how this develops and its effect on oil prices (now towards $66), esp. combined with Iran's antics with the captured sailors. It's almost as if they are trying to stir up antagonism and strengthen excuses for an attack later this year.