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136 comments on DrumBeat: April 1, 2007
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136 comments on DrumBeat: April 1, 2007
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a couple thoughts on your article:
Your concluding paragraph about using 10 times less to heat a house is a great message. This is what must eventually happen on a grand scale.
About that first chart: Oil measured in "real money" is a meaningless gimmick that may be fun to stare at, but has little real value. Oil and gold are both real assets and alternative stores of value compared to our paper dollar. However, comparing the two as if there is some fundamental linkage that must always be maintained is ridiculous.
Of course both will rise together as the value of paper dollars fall. There is no causal relationship between the two. One is energy, necessary for life, economy, and industry. The other is a curiosity with little practical use, aside from storing some value. Oil is used, and destroyed, and must be replaced. Gold is mined and accumulated. They are only similar in that they are part of a large family of non-dollar assets that will definitely rise as the world loses confidence in the worthless paper money the US keeps printing.
All of your other conclusions and graphs are well presented and form a good coherent message about oil prices. The link to gold is just a distraction.
> "real money" is a meaningless gimmick
I generally agree that gold is a "barbarous relic" as a monetary standard -- liquidity governed by mining output? geez.
That being said, there may be some merit to the idea that the world's savers (Asia and other exporters) will gravitate to gold (or other precious metals) at some point for lack of a better place to hide. It's been suggested that those savers have sought US/Western investments because local investments have not traditionally had the desired levels of investor protection. What a weird world we live in.
Most of the real gold bugs in the US are old and discredited, but what about Asia? Are there "gold-money" newsletters out there in languages that I don't understand? That I believe is an interesting question.
During the 19th century, on the gold standard, we had no inflation. During the 20th century, using fiat currency, the dollar lost 95%+ of its value to inflation. WHich one do you prefer?
The "liquidity by mining output" statement makes no sense to anyone that understands how a gold standard works. Professor Antal Fekete has written numerous papers on real bills and self-liquidating credit under a gold standard. (See www.financialsense.com). There is absolutely no problem financing production under a gold standard. (Which is what I assume you meant by liquidity).
Over the last 100 years the Fed has gone to a lot of trouble to discredit the gold standard, since it is the natural enemy of a fiat currency. FIat currencies allow governments to spend without any voter restraint (other than worrying about creating excessive inflation). The gold standard on the other hand limits government spending to what can be raised by taxes and borrowed against future tax income.
Why would anyone therefore (other than a banker that is) NOT support a gold standard? In today's world, you could use electronic debit cards linked to your gold account just as easily as cards linked to your fiat dollar account, and you could spend .001 oz of gold on a cup of coffee as easily as you would $2.50. The difference is that under the gold standard you can sleep at night not worrying about the bankers printing additional money and devaluing the notes in your pocket.
The general misunderstanding and ignorance of how a gold standard works/has worked in the past is beyond belief.
Francois.
When someone deflates the value of paper money by, for instance, the CPI without inflating the amount of paper money by the T-Bill rate then they haven't been completely honest about the value of paper money. This mistake is repeated ad nauseum by gold bugs. Paper money has NOT lost 95% of its value to inflation. The gold standard is self-discrediting. The gold bugs are "beyond belief".
Francois? You still concious?