128 comments on Of Oil Supply trains and a thought on Ain Dar
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
The contents below are paid advertisements. Their appearance does not imply an endorsement by The Oil Drum.
“Where ideas are concerned, America can be counted on to do one of two things: take a good idea and run it completely into the ground, or take a bad idea and run it completely into the ground.”
—George Carlin
Search The Oil Drum with Google
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Prof. Goose, Heading Out, Stuart Staniford, Nate Hagens
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Gail the Actuary, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Khebab, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Local: Glenn
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Technician: Super G
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Local
- Summer Streets a Success!
- Plan for Hydro-Fracture Drilling for Unconventional Natural Gas in Upstate New York
- Enjoying Life Close to Home: Fun Streets
TOD:Europe
- Russian gas and European energy security - a reprise
- Russia: There Is Life After Peak Oil
- Should EROEI be the most important criterion our society uses to decide how it meets its energy needs?
TOD:Canada
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
- Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008)
- Weekend Energy Listening: Wind Power with Paul Gipe
TOD:ANZ
Peak Oil Primers
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- Ecological Economics
- David Strahan
- Econbrowser
- The Energy Blog
- Entropy Production
- Environmental Economics
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- jeffvail.net
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Organizations
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
Dave,
I don't mean to quibble but your post says absolutely nothing about why Stuart's interpretation of the Saudi information is wrong. All you've done is cast an unspecific aspersion without any data other than an unnamed source with unnamed conclusions. In the computer world this is called "FUD" (fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) and is deeply, deeply frowned upon.
I'm sure you have interesting information on hand but please refrain from posting until you are willing to share.
Thanks,
Gary
I have things to do, and won't be hanging around here today. But, I said
And I will do this, so stay tuned. I'm sorry if you think my giving everyone "a taste" of what's forthcoming is inappropriate.By the way, just who is spreading "Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt" about Saudi Arabia's oil production? It isn't me. You might examine your own confusion around this point.
Dave: if you can get experienced people with no conflict of interest to discuss the issue in detail publicly, that will be valuable.
Did you get an email about demand/supply?
Subject: Saudi Oil Production
Even if there is a conflict of interest, but it is open and declared, then I'll be very interested.
But I do agree that it does little good to use an anonymous source to cast doubt on Stuart's and Euan's work. It's no answer to say that Stuart et al are doing the same: they laid out their case -- whether one finds it conclusive or not is a separate issue.
I'll send you some mail.
"I don't mean to quibble but your post says absolutely nothing about why Stuart's interpretation of the Saudi information is wrong. All you've done is cast an unspecific aspersion without any data other than an unnamed source with unnamed conclusions."
Dave does this all the time, and what he does produce in the end tends to be questionable and biased, doesn't actually address the issue or remains ambiguous.
I guess we should just all trust the professionals in the oil industry to keep production rising and prices stable, huh? I'm sure they all know what they're doing and we'd never see any problems with our energy supply. Oh, wait...
Stuart-
I am looking through your "nosedive" topic to see how much net oil you are missing with the additive effects of the new projects.
I think the after breakthrough cut in Ain Dar/ Shedgum should be about 90% water... so you should be missing 1.7 MMBOPD less the new oil on the SA total curve.
Production in Ain Dar/Shedgum is now 300,000 BOPD and 2.7 MMBWPD... from 2 MMBOPD and 1 MMBWPD in 2003 if the water has risen to the top of the crest. Until someone shows me different, I find it hard to see any other way.
No doubt confirmed by the announced export cuts.
If it helps I did a bit of digging into oil consumption in the KSA it looks to me like the numbers could easily be low.
By about 200-500kbd.
I sent the info to WT. So if your seeing say 2GB of oil missing it could have well gone into internal consumption.
I could find nothing that would justify the low average oil consumption for KSA compared to Kuwait for example.
The US is at like 0.08mbpd per million
And Kuwait is at 0.12mbpd per million
If you plugin 0.10 per million for KSA you come up with 2.4 mbpd.