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128 comments on Of Oil Supply trains and a thought on Ain Dar

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Cid Yama on April 3, 2007 - 3:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"I don't mean to quibble but your post says absolutely nothing about why Stuart's interpretation of the Saudi information is wrong. All you've done is cast an unspecific aspersion without any data other than an unnamed source with unnamed conclusions."

Dave does this all the time, and what he does produce in the end tends to be questionable and biased, doesn't actually address the issue or remains ambiguous.

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Dave Cohen on April 3, 2007 - 6:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

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Stuart Staniford on April 3, 2007 - 7:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I guess we should just all trust the professionals in the oil industry to keep production rising and prices stable, huh? I'm sure they all know what they're doing and we'd never see any problems with our energy supply. Oh, wait...

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Fractional_Flow on April 3, 2007 - 7:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Stuart-

I am looking through your "nosedive" topic to see how much net oil you are missing with the additive effects of the new projects.

I think the after breakthrough cut in Ain Dar/ Shedgum should be about 90% water... so you should be missing 1.7 MMBOPD less the new oil on the SA total curve.

Production in Ain Dar/Shedgum is now 300,000 BOPD and 2.7 MMBWPD... from 2 MMBOPD and 1 MMBWPD in 2003 if the water has risen to the top of the crest. Until someone shows me different, I find it hard to see any other way.

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Cid Yama on April 3, 2007 - 10:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No doubt confirmed by the announced export cuts.

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memmel on April 3, 2007 - 11:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If it helps I did a bit of digging into oil consumption in the KSA it looks to me like the numbers could easily be low.
By about 200-500kbd.

I sent the info to WT. So if your seeing say 2GB of oil missing it could have well gone into internal consumption.

I could find nothing that would justify the low average oil consumption for KSA compared to Kuwait for example.

The US is at like 0.08mbpd per million
And Kuwait is at 0.12mbpd per million
If you plugin 0.10 per million for KSA you come up with 2.4 mbpd.

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