Remark that each project has a lead time before attaining full capacity.

The Khurais Exp, for example, is not reflected has a sudden 1.1 Mb/d jump, but has a ramp-up that seems reasonable (at least to me - I must have used a similar ramp-up rate, because I get a chart extremely close to Fig.1).

Hi Garyp,

Some assumptions for Fig 1 graph:

No surplus capacity

EIA and IEA state there is about 2 mb/d surplus capacity but then EIA and IEA state it takes 30 days to deliver this capacity and would last for a minimum of 90 days. Also I think that this spare capacity, if it really exists, might be mostly heavy crude that refineries don't want to process. One piece of evidence for the spare capacity being heavier crude is the decreasing price differential between Saudi Heavy and Saudi Light. This implies that Saudi is cutting supplies of heavy crude.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_pri_wco_k_w.xls
Mar 30, 2007 Saudi Heavy was $57.06/b; Saudi Light $60.26/b. Diff of $3.20.
Oct 13, 2006: Saudi Heavy $49.12; Saudi Light $54.07; Diff$4.95

Ghawar, excluding Haradh

Ghawar is assumed to be producing at 4.35 mb/d for Jan 07 declining at an annual rate of 8%.

Existing fields

Existing old fields such as Berri, Safiniya and Zuluf are assumed to have annual decline rates of 6%.

New projects

Only Haradh(ghawar) and Nuayyim have the lowest decline rates of 4%/yr.

New projects which are workovers of old fields

Projects such as AFK, Khurais exp, Manifa, Shaybah(difficult field) are assumed to have decline rates of 6%/yr.

Project ramp up and plateaus

Future projects have a ramp up period to the peak plateau. Ramp up periods are about one to two years. In the case of Khurais - it might take three years. Peak production stays on plateaus ranging from one to five years.

Production versus reserves

I've just posted (see above) a long range forecast of Saudi Arabia to Dec 2020 to reconcile forecast production to Dec 2020 to Saudi reserves.

I assume that reserves are 2P reserves=URR. I assume that URR for Saudi is 165 Gb. I assume that URR produced to year ending 2006 for Saudi is 110 Gb. I calculate using the Dec 2020 forecast that additional URR produced from 2007 to 2020 is 40 Gb. URR produced at Dec 2020=110=40=150Gb. This leaves 165-150=15Gb which appears reasonable.