237 comments on Further Evidence of Saudi Arabia's Oil Production Decline
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237 comments on Further Evidence of Saudi Arabia's Oil Production Decline
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This is the seventh post now on sauidi and the pieces of the puzzle slowly but surely are slotting home. I've drunk so much coffee reading these articles and ditched a few books recently!! The missing bits of the puzzle?
Now it is time for Roger Conner to spill the beans. Come on Roger what do you know? What are you not telling us? Why are you not wading in with empirical data to support the contrarian viewpoint and restore balance to the force?
I'm running out of coffee brands here waiting!!!
Marco.
I also had to restock on coffee last night :)
Maybe we need to do a quick check on world coffee supplies :)
. shaking hands
Peak Coffee...
Think about that, and tremble in fear...
According to this link (http://www.unicamp.br/fea/ortega/energy/Oscar.pdf), conventional coffee production (only growing the beans!) requires ca. 14 kg of various pesticides and 2000 kg of fertilizer/ha/year and 50l of petrol fuel/ha/year, among many other things.
The burning, packaging and transport requires more, of course. Peak coffee, however, doesn't seem to come in sight yet, as the low price of coffee has prompted attempts to use it as, indeed, an energy source (http://www.teaandcoffee.net/0801/world.htm)(scroll down).
whew :)
Thanks.
I'm trying to grow my own coffee plants in Southern CA and they are not doing well. They seem pretty picky.
Gotta have the Bean Juice
Everyone calm down. You can make a coffee sub by roasting the roots of chickory or dandylion and grinding. Tastes like shit but any port in a storm? No? Well then stock up I know I will.
I'm going to get those coffee plants growing.
I think I know my calling if TSHTF local greenhouse coffee and tea barista. You can drink your dandelion crap.
Even roving bands of mutants need coffee.
No one would dare attack me :)
Moonshine might be a better bet, unless you are near the tropics. There's a lot more than temperature involved in growing coffee. Daylight length, soil type, drainage, etc.
I heard of this Filipino man who smuggled thousands of macadamia nut trees into the Philippines, planning to start a mac nut farm. No one told him the latitude was wrong for mac nuts. The trees grew, but they never bore nuts. Daylight length is what triggers flowering in mac trees, so they never flowered.
This is why I'm not sanguine about keeping food production up despite climate change. Just moving crops north is not going to be a solution.
Speaking of food production. I picked up a copy of Capital Press( Ag news weekly). Front cover $112,480 in fines for spraying illegal chemicals to control thrips on onions( no other control is known).
back page of second section. Monsanto and dairymen upset by other dairy companies touting that thier milk is rBST
(artificial hormone) free, which is illegal, because the hormone was tested and found to be safe, and advertizing non-rBST is deceptive advertizing. rBST makes cows produce up to an extra 10 lbs of milk a day.
This is only 1 week - makes you want to grow your own food PO or not.
"which is illegal, because the hormone was tested and found to be safe"
That's pure bullshit, though of course any milk, organic or hormone-laced, is full to the brim with disease and disease-causing crap. Monsanto and the "dairymen" are amoral, poison-pushers...hope no one confuses these greedy fucks with regular the regular small farms which they have done such a good job destroying...
"TSHTF Coffee Co." It has potential IMHO.
There's also the Kentucky Coffee Tree which grows easily in much of the U.S.
A few words of caution, however:
The common name "coffeetree" derives from the use of the roasted seeds as a substitute for coffee in times of poverty. They are a very inferior substitute for real coffee, and caution should be used in trying them as they are poisonous in large quantities
I doubt that the bean contains any caffeine, but I don't know this for sure.
Independent Lens on PBS just had a documentary on how the collapse in the coffee price has impacted Ethiopian farmers. It left me wishing I could pay MORE for coffee.
http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/blackgold/?campaign=pbshomefeatures_3...
But you can! Don't you have trade-aid coffee available where you are? I have drunk nothing else for the last ten years. Generally small growers are under contract and paid a fair price. Often organic too. Even without the conscience money, I find the quality justifies the price differential.
I think it's large-scale planting in Vietnam which has driven world prices down.
Thanks for the tip, the show did mention a Minnesota roaster that used Ethiopian beans.
Probably not. "Fair trade" products seem to be a European thing. It's almost unheard of in the U.S.
It started off as a boutique thing, but even the supermarkets carry fair-trade coffee now.
Here's a link to a list of certified fair-trade coffee suppliers in the US
Coffee is an easy vector because people are so passionate about it, it's a lot harder to extend the principle to other consumer goods.
Still looks like a boutique thing to me. Not many places on that list, and most of them seem to be concentrated in big cities or tony resort areas.
Fair trade coffee is available in Whole Foods and Wild Oats markets. It can also be ordered online.
Starbucks is the largest purchaser of Fair Trade coffee in North America. They don't serve it in brewed form but they sell it in bags. So if you're lucky enough to have a Starbucks in town :) then you should be able to find Fair Trade coffee.
The 'spice' is found only on Arrakis! :-)
The coffeeberry that grows on the west coast (Rhamnus sp.)is good mainly as a laxative.
Marco asks,
"Now it is time for Roger Conner to spill the beans. Come on Roger what do you know?"
I know enough not to take Stuart and Khebab on in a statistical fight...I have never pretented to be a match for that kind of firepower! :-)
Once more we are back to my pet three: Khurais (referred to here as “an old small field”, it is the second largest oil bearing structure in KSA [per Simmons], the Saudi’s seem to believe in it enough to spend billions, would they just throw that kind of money in the garbage on a bluff?), the empty quarter (Shaybah for now, more later? Who knows?), and offshore (the assumption here seems to be there is nothing there to speak of, but if that’s true, KSA is wasting a lot of money bringing in those offshore jackups)
But, as I have long said, we are running in the blind. We are having to place our bets somewhere between our mouth and Saudi money....and I feel a bit uncomfortable betting against the latter.
Who knows. We may be there, we know that “peak time” has to come for KSA sometime, now is as good as any I guess. If so, one prediction of mine is holding strong: The price will be no warning. As I looked just a few moments ago, crude prices were just over $61 a barrel. That would be insanely, INSANELY cheap if we are within months of Saudi peak. But, that was the case when U.S. peaked in '70, oil was dirt cheap. It came virtually without warning.
What do I know? I know I am paying down debts. I just made a spare $300 plus spare place per month in my budget, so if Diesel goes to $6 to $7 per gallon, I can still get around! Next step may be apartent shopping closer to work....we are so overbuilt on apartments, townhouses and condos in our area it should take a while to fill them all up....now as to the condition of my employer :-(........who knows. Either way, we will know by end of summer, let's all meet up here after Labor Day and see how it went!
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember we are only one cubic mile from freedom
(but aparently, reserves are disappearing on paper even faster than we are burning them! How does that work....? I have heard of "reserve growth", now we are getting massive "reserve shrink"!) :-)