Hi i am from Serbia and first just want to apologize for my weird English.
I learned it from movies as a kid.
I want to give a proposal. We live in world of economics for hundreds of years and it matters in ours everyday lives. Price off oil achieved its anti peak in 1998, 8 dollars per barell, my country was at that moment at war with world so i didn't got it, but seems to me that economy was at its highest point at that time. I believe we are on downslope ever since. It makes sense, money is what aloud s you to buy more and more toys, all made from plastic, metal, and lots of fossil fuel consumed energy don't forget that much more than half of produced fuel is used in industry. So when the price jumps so does products, it cost more to produce as simple as that. So we are in effective peak oil scenario all the way back to 1998. its almost ten years sins it hit. Flow dosent mater, its a mater of money sorry for this “Cornucopian” point of view but i just wanted to point out this fact.
I think we are headed towards economic crash caused by high oil price stress.
After that?
Probably a die off.
How strange this new land would be, high unemployment, homeless people and more and more cops at the streets. Violent clashes with police, looting and then nothing. Food will be gone in just a few days, hunger is very strong motivation.
Happy holidays from Serbia and sorry again for my poor English.

Hi sorry to be off topic .

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf

This is the latest UN Global Climate change report.

BTW rale, don't worry about weird English, I love it that's why i cum here now. 8$ oil? I couldn't remember it but it sure looks low on this graph at that time even in current dollars:

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

I also don't think your cornucopian idea of die off misplaced, as I am sure the planet will, at days end, not become Venusian.

Ok my bad.
The price was 12.72$ in 1998 dollars, value is around 15$ for inflation adjusted price. 8$ was in 1864 (100$ in new dollars). Data comes from “BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006”
And if i remember Clinton's era is marked as a “good years” and it was a time of budget sufficit in US.
If you are interested for totally destroyed country by lack of fuel (and any imported goods) you could check the last 15 years of Serbia's history. In the beginning of 1992 (may) the security council voted for complete ban of any economic activity with the outside world (like Cuba only worse). Only oil we had was here in Vojvodina, the place i live. The regime choose d to show the world how smart we are, that one system with population of 10 000 000 (Bosnian Serbs include t) can create a economic miracle. Miloshevic claimed that this is just a minor difficulty on our way to Swedish standard. They planed to do this by printing money and giving it to industry in order to push-start the economy. Result was the greatest inflashion ever recorded. With a aide of new printing press we managed to become nation of billionaires. It was a joke, you res eve a pay which you must change in anything solid, if you are quick you can get 80 DM. After few days the value was 5 marks or less. Petrol was bought on the streets, in plastic bottles. It was officially illegal to do this but those who were on black market helped life to continue. I don't know how much oil we had in those days, maybe less than a half normal.
We now live normal, more or less. But im afraid that soon there would be another crisis. This time there wont be food from international aide agencies and times would be very easter islands type. That is what bugs me. This is die off im a fraid.
About climate, when we stop with pollution nature would return in its full glory in short time. Maybe different but healthy.

Rale, I think the price of oil bottomed in 1999 at $10/barrel. And I don't think the global economy has been going down since. It depends on where you live. The Indian and Chinese middle classes have never had it better. But in general I think you are right. As oil becomes more and more expensive and scarce, life will get harder.

Skipping the details, and from my semi - knowledge, that all makes sense, and makes an important point.

Ppl tend to forget the break up of Yugoslavia, its media and ‘military’ success, and the economic and energetic consequences for the ppl who live there, the intertwining of sanctions, war, invasion, and ‘oil’ as well as wider political considerations such as the extension of the EU and NATO (indirectly to be sure.)

It is never quoted as an example (in the mainstream) except as a success for Clintonian foreign policy (to make it short.)

rale

My USE of English is pretty bad, as I was criticizing my poor memory about the value of oil in 1998 and not your figures, and I agree with you... when we stop with pollution nature would return in its full glory in short time. Maybe different but healthy. and I would like to hear what you have to say on that subject.

We tend to drink our own bath water here, so something fresh from you would be great.

Rale,

Thanks for posting. I think a lot of us are worried about the same things you are. The higher prices of oil are starting have already started to hit some of the poorer countries, but it is likely that the richer countries will be feeling the effects in not too long as well.

None of us have found complete solutions to the problems. But we are trying to look for things that would help such as local food production in sustainable ways. We can also try to find things to be happy about now - our friends, our families, ways we can help ourselves and others, favorable weather.

Even if we cannot solve the problems, we can at least focus our thoughts in ways that don't make us depressed now.

Hello Rale, your english is good. You even spelled 'weird' right which most english speakers get wrong.

Could you provide evidence that the world economy peaked in 1998 as you say? I believe the world economy has grown significantly since then. For instance, many people in Asia and Eastern Europe have more money and better economies now than then.

Hi Keith,

Even if the economy has increased, so has the population as well as upward flow of capital and resources. It's just an old standard tune being played, the rich get richer and the poor?, well who cares.

I don't think there can be any solution to our problems until there is some equality,or at least the attempt at it, do you?

Probably a die off.

Serbia probably has the skills and experience to survive any social disruption, as this photo of the Arkans mobile die-off unit at work shows. Note the cool sunglasses & the cigarette. The dead woman was pregnant by the way.

Sebian Arkans unit having fun

I find this offensive. Could it be removed?

Yes it could Gail, by a redistribution of wealth.

Sorry about going all political.

Gail,

I find it disturbing but having it removed is akin to having pictures of the concentration camps removed from sites that discuss World War II.

Having it removed is "wrong" on multiple levels, imho.

I too find this incident offensive.

The image has haunted me ever since I saw it some years ago,

We sometimes need reminders ... especially in forums which discuss "Die Off" like it was a casual walk in the park.

I find this offensive.

Yeah! So?
NO CENSORSHIP!!!

Gail...if you use Firefox and Ad-Block, you can block any image with a click.

When unemployment reach some 50% you have plenty of people with nothing to loose and loot to have. The fact they claimed its for good of Serbian nation dosent make them any less criminal they are. Most people here were normal, non warrior type. They were the victims of insane nationalism brought by incompetent dictators who cared only about power and nothing else.
In extreme situation people do extreme tings.
Peak oils effects could very well lai hand in hand with far right or far left, it would be great opportunity for extremist to gain foot in wider public, only need to claim that Mexicans did it (remember Germany in 30-s).

What is your opinion on the regime changes in the decade after '89? How did the different regimes compare? Where there certain keypoints where (identifiably) wrong or right choices have been made?

The United States may be different in certain respects with regards toward industry. Most industry in the US is powered by electricity and very little of our electricity is fueled by oil. It is just a guess but I once heard that 1/2 of our rail and truck traffic is for transporting food which would mean 1/2 of our diesel fuel is used to transport food. Biodiesel has a much better EROEI than ethanol plus creating producing diesel fuel from waste materials via thermal processes is much easier than producing a gasoline substitute.
Some areas of the US have had high levels of unemployment and homelessness for decades and riots are still quite rare. What few riots we've had were usually instigated by police incompetence. Unlike civilized countries the police in the US are mostly financed on the local level. This means the police forces don't pay enough to attract the enough people of the higher intelligence level needed for the job. Therefore areas with high unemployment and homelessness have fewer policemen per capita than the rich suburbs. Ironically areas with high levels of homelessness usually have higher levels of empty dwellings. Its all about ability to pay in America despite what the Country Club Cry-babies say about this being a welfare state.

Hello Rale! Welcome to The Oil Drum! Don't worry about your English, I'm sure very few Americans can do as well as you writing Serbian or any other European language.
I also believe that most people do not care about the actual date of peak oil production, but instead care about the price to them of the products that they use and the availability. Although I see a die off as not very likely, you can find many people who hold your views on William Kunstler's website dieoff.com.

I am curious how you found The Oil Drum. Were you referred by another person, did you find us through a search engine? Also, how old are you, what is your occupation?
I am 55, I work in oil and gas exploration in the United States, I was referred to the site by an old friend who is in oil and gas exploration and was one of the founders of ASPO USA.