296 comments on The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce
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Just a reminder that regardless of what year we peak or peaked, Robert Rapier has also been recommending (and implementing) the ELP concept.
Also, I believe that we are also both on board with some type of energy consumption tax.
My personal preference is for an energy consumption tax, to be primarily used to fund Social Security/Medicare, offset by cutting or eliminating the Payroll (Social Security + Medicare) Tax.
Finally, I recommend, if you can, that you take a weekend trip to Portland, Oregon and stay downtown--without a car. The Max line runs from the airport to downtown. See how it is possible to live in an urban environment, without a car, using your two feet, bicycles, light rail and streetcars. Some of the people that I talked to in Portland didn't even have a driver's license.
I came away from our recent trip to Portland more convinced than ever that Alan Drake should be president. IMO, we should all be pushing hard for Electrification of Transportation in our own communities. Alan and I are discussing putting together a joint presentation: Peak Oil & Electrification of Transportation: A Necessity Not a Choice.
Among the other reasons, IMO we are rapidly approaching the point where we will need jobs for a lot of people that will be laid off as discretionary spending contracts.
I think your missing the biggest issue post peak. I've looked into our current manufacturing base and the way we produce goods. Generally its based on JIT (Just in time) processes and integration of supply chain and customers CRM. This is a incredibly fragile system if stressed by peak oil and it will almost certainly break down. Whole factories will be idled for the lack of one key part and loss of contact with the manufacture either because of economic or political reasons.
For example if the supply of platinum is disrupted.
http://www.unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/platinum/ecopolicies.htm
We have less than one year before goods that depend on platinum in their manufacture would be seriously curtailed.
These sorts of weak links in our current manufacturing system are immense.
Taking a electric rail to a factory closed for lack of critical parts is not that useful.
If we don't take a hard look at how our manufacturing systems work I don't see most of it lasting for any length of time in the case of either financial or political stress.
America and most of the industrialized world has feet mode of very wet slippery clay. Critical shortages will quickly bring our current industrial base to a halt.
Not factoring this in to ELP makes ELP a theoretical argument not a practical solution. I enjoy talking about ELP as much as the next person but I don't see it as even close to a realistic solution.
I agree with you. But there's nothing we can do about it.
So ELP, or die.
The point is ELP does not work as proposed because we no longer have the manufacturing base to support it.
During WWII we still had a lot of vertical integration but this is long long gone. ELP requires vertical integration and consistent sources of materials.
Not to mention that production maximized for cost and volume is not even close to the right way to produce goods in a ELP scenario.
Simple things like fuel shortages in Africa that prevent raw material shipments will rapidly degrade our current system.
Nothing against ELP but we have to take a critical look at what it would really entail.
Given the amount of investment needed and our current world financial system ELP for all practical purposes a fantasy.
Your a lot better off to focus on how you can build a comfortable life with only the resources available with 100 square miles of your location. Electric trains are not part of this picture unless we have a 100% vertical solution for the manufacture of all critical components.
Thus you again need the government to recognize peak oil and support the recreation of vertical industry.
Not going to happen.
In the meantime you need to think like a African and not a American and figure out how to create goods and services with limited capabilities. ELP is a great idea but understand the hurdles we face on really implementing it.
unless we have a 100% vertical solution for the manufacture of all critical components
You should have visited the Carrollton Barn before Katrina, where our transit agency maintains 35 Perley Thomas's, built in 1923 & 1924 (and one 1897 workcar).
We built 24 new streetcars for the Canal line there as well. The body subassemblies were sourced within 100 miles. The trucks from Brookville PA, the controls from Pennsylvania and the air conditioning from the Czech Republic (with American parts).
Best Hopes,
Alan
This is exactly the sort of issues that should be addressed as part of the solution. I suspect your suppliers still had a lot of weak points that would need to be addressed. A real ELP solution requires complete documentation of the supply chain.
All technical documents required to produce a part and sourcing multiple trustworthy suppliers and repair shops.
Not to mention stockpiling spares to handle extended loss o suppliers until another can be found.
I'm glad you posted this and not surprised New Orleans took a pragmatic approach.
Thanks!
I recall an old article I think by Amory Lovins that described where all the materials and parts for the typewriter he wrote the article on came from. 0% came from the good old USA. I believe something like 37 countries were listed. The drive to maximize profits means we no longer have the expertise to make most of what we use.
Hi memmel,
re: "...unless we have a 100% vertical solution for the manufacture of all critical components."
I'd like to encourage this line of thought.
There are some big hurdles, but also a few "aces up the sleeve".
My training and work experience is as an Industrial Engineer, also called a Manufacturing Engineer. One of the guys who figured out how to produce things - though unfortunately we often got assigned to figuring out how to produce good products much more cheaply, or how to source all the expensive parts from cheap countries. :o(
One of the big hurdles is that much of what is currently classified as "manufacturing" in the US is actually "assembly". Manufacturing is upgrading raw material into an item, assembly is putting together a collection of manufactured items.
True manufacturing relies on equipment (lathes, presses, dies, foundries, etc). Producing or reviving this equipment is a likely first step.
Assembly mostly relies on organization (sourcing parts, inventory, training the assemblers, occasional specialty tools)
Shifting towards the "Produce" goal will mean a bigger emphasis on true manufacturing. Though of course we will always need to assemble these items also.
One "ace in the hole" is the CAD/CAM capabilities we now have. CAD/CAM = Computer Aided Design/Computer Aided Manufacturing. This tech is mostly being used in either tool and die shops to produce molds for plastic injection machines (think Tupperware, electronics housings, disposable doo-dads) or in prototype shops (making show-and-tell samples of the items just listed).
There is no technical reason these machines and their skilled machinists and designers couldn't instead make:
* parts for new manufacturing equipment
* critical repair and replacement parts
* patterns for foundry work
ESPECIALLY if the design focuses on making manufacturing equipment that is flexible, uses little or simple energy, is labor enhacing instead of labor eliminating. Copying some of the 1940's through 1960's designs for equipment would be a good start...
Greg in MO
Easy Digging: Dig faster than a shovel, with less effort!
http://www.easydigging.com/
Greg in MO
My next mildly capital intensive purchase is going to be an electric welder, I want to be able to build items like a pedicab, light bike trailer, wheel hoe and other tools. There seems to be a variety of new types of electric welders on the market with things like wire feed and gas. What would a small household or farm be advised to buy for after Peak? Keep it basic or go for the extras? Buy lots of rods or use ?.
Possibly you might speak about any other things like small metal lathes etc. which might go well with that New Economy we hope will evolve.
I think there may be an article here, 'The Tools We
Will Fight and Die For, After P.O.' :-)
BBG,
Regarding welders. The ones you are speaking of are MIG welders. Wire feed and can use shielded argon or other gas. HOWEVER most of these are just toys. They can hardly go beyond 1/8 steel and shouldn't be used for that really since the weld is very weak and can cause many problems later.
If you go MIG then best to go to a real machine and that is very expensive. For instance its hard to weld aluminum with a mig for the wire will kink in the hose feed channel so you need a spool at the tip handle where you won't have feed problems and this add further expense..yada yada.
My favorite farm welder is a simple AC/DC 250 output 'stick' welder. SMAG I believe it the correct name. This can make some real welds. Again aluminum and stainless can be done but you need good rods and good skills.
But for mild steel you can't beat the old 'buzzbox'.
A good oxyacetylene setup is very handy. I have a small one and own my cylinders. You really need these to cut with , weld sometimes and braze a lot.
The rental on tanks has become very expense and filling a tank has also risen very much.
Buy a bunch of 6011 and 6013 rods. Most of what you will use. I have a auto helmet(or did til my buddy got hold of it). It was $400 but worth every penny of it.
You will also need a good anvil in at least the 100 to 200 lbs range. A coal forge is nice. I had three forges and 10 anvils but alas the farm auction 3 yrs ago(no PO on horizon) took them away.
So welding is something very important on the farm in that most every one here has equipment in their sheds , if they do anything serious. A good aircompressor is also necessary.
The list gets bigger and bigger.
Several good logging chains are usually needed.
Airdale's suggestions of a simple stick welder and/or oxy-acetylene torch is a good one. Often there are inexpensive adult-ed classes where you can learn to use this gear AND figure out which tool really fits your likely needs. For heavy duty welding (farm machinery, trailers, structural) a powerful stickwelder is a must. For lighter welding a lower power stick welder OR brazing with a torch is okay. A set of small "plumbers tanks", a brazing torch and a cutting torch makes a good multi-purpose portable combo. Brazing rod is pretty cheap, and you can use salvaged light steel rod or wire in a pinch (from old bed box springs or concrete reinforcing mesh perhaps?)
For the uses you mentioned above I think I would stick with the torch and hire out the rare heavy welding job.
For actual metal shaping on a home-scale basis the options get a bit more unconventional. This will sound odd, but I would really recommend KNOWLEDGE and a good collection of high-quality manual metal working tools like files, hacksaws, drill bits, taps, dies, micrometers, calipers, bluing, scrapers, lapping compound, and a good vise.
Sounds strange doesn't it? Check out the some of the old machinist's books reprinted and sold through Lindsay's Technical Books http://www.lindsaybks.com/ It is amazing how much machining used to be done with a vise and a file. Takes some practice, and some time, but the price is right :o)
After basic metalcutting tools and some sort of welder, the next priority would be a toss up between a small benchtop mill and some basic casting equipment. There is a lot of info in the Lindsay books on both types of equipment.
I built one of their charcoal foundry set-ups and had great fun melting old zinc diecast lawnmower bodies and casting new things with the liquid metal. A local foundry gave me a couple 5 gallon buckets of professional casting sand for free, and I could make casting boxes and patterns with woodworking tools. It was really neat to take a broken cast part from some old thing I wanted to fix, glue it together long enough to act as a pattern, then pour a clone of it with zinc or aluminum.
I wish I could offer suggestions on a benchtop mill, but so many of the new ones are "Made in China" and have a poor reputation. Grizzly http://grizzlyindustrial.com/ had a decent rep last I heard, but do check online for actual owner reviews. You could also search for an old American or European made machine.
Hope this helps,
Greg in MO
Easy Digging: Dig faster than a shovel, with less effort!
http://www.easydigging.com/
It would be nice to concentrate all of this information into a searchable dvd format. Also cad/cam drawings could easily go to a computer enabled mill. With a bit of though we could easily covert a lot of the old technology to computer controlled to eliminate some of the needed expertise for simple problems. I'm not saying you don't need and expert but I think that working out how to build something that can work via computer control could really help in creating a viable small manufacturing set up that does not need a expert making simple stuff at each mill.
I'd of course like to work it all the way out so you could even create computers. If you only need to make a few chips then you would be amazed at how easy it is if you have or can build the right equipment esp if you only need low end cpu's. As long as you can get functional cpu's you don't need the high yields required for cheap commercial manufacture. Its simply a matter of working all the way up to the required equipment and material purification.
Sounds a bit crazy I know but why not ? Most of it is not rocket science but doing each small step correctly. Fluidic based system created from stamps is another fascinating solution. Silicon ain't the only way to create a computer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluidics
a small gas-powered welder that can be switched to runn on"woodgas" is on my list,with sealed cans of 7018 electrod,as well as a "buzz-box"ac/dc welder to use standard power,if avalible.stockpile sealed cans of electrod e-6010,e-6011,e7018,and you can fabricate/repair most items
In the plant that I work for we have in house Cad/Cam. Some critcal repair parts are designed in house and then made in our machine shop. This saves alot of money over going back to the OEM. However, some parts we cannot make eg. sensors and bearings. Our equipment is very specialized and some parts are hard to obtain. Just in time and lean manufacturing I think post peak will be difficult. Think of the situations were a single part is rush delivered so that a production schedule can be met. I have had to do this on occasion where a supplier will call a special delivery company to drive 2 hours to deliver a bearing to our plant. I have even had to have parts flown in on overnight express.
This critical failure problem will be a huge issue post peak.
Consider your problem when fuel supplies are uncertain. Our manufacturing systems could easily unravel quickly. Idling your plant causing you to lose money and leading to a cascading chain reaction of failures as JIT processes break down. The rush to stockpile critical parts will lead to further disruptions. This is a real and looming threat.
Couple this with current and resulting financial problems as orders go unfilled and cash flow becomes uncertain and you have a perfect storm brewing.
As an engineer, I was fascinated by the 7 Riverfront streetcars and 24 Canal streetcars built in our 1884 Carrollton streetcar (which also maintains 35 Perley Thomas streetcars, built 1923/24, for the St. Charles Line).
Elmer von Dullen (Blessed be his name :-) started in the electrical shop in 1954 (his father before him). Worked his way up, worked in every aspect of streetcar operation & maintenance except carpentry (but he knows that as well).
Elmer said "We can build them in house" and did !
He took the 1920s design, 70+ years of operating experience and made over 100 detail changes to improve weaknesses in the design he had observed (ANYTHING that broke, bent, rusted or just wore out; he changed). His new folding step is a masterprice as one example. Cast iron supports rotating on a mild steel shaft have been replaced by cast steel supports rotating nylon bushings over a stainless steel shaft with improved linkage.
Modern materials and technology incorporated throughout; but wood still had a useful function (no wood-wood joins though, except in the mahogany seats). Oak, white ash and mahogany from memory were used, each wood type for a certain function (public only sees mahogany; and it is stunning; seats & trim inside).
He says that the Perley Thomas's may have 75 years left in them; but the new Canal streetcars should last 500 years.
And I believe him !
(The trucks may run into stress fractures in 80 to 120 years).
Best Hopes,
Alan Drake
Body sides are 3/8" Corten steel (upgraded from 1/4" mild steel). Frame is now an "L" and it has been lengthened. Rivets have been replaced with round head bolts that torque off.
thanks all you guys in this little thread. this is the way to a future
HI Greg,
Thanks so much for responding, I have so little time to read that I'm getting back here late.
1) One thing I've wondered about for quite a while and haven't had time to research:
Is it possible to manufacture a bicycle in the US today - "from scratch"? ie., I believe there are no more US bicycle manufacturers (last one was Huffy?). Still was wondering...Are there still US steel mills? and how difficult would it be to set up a US manufacturing plant?
2) I'd really like to see you expand what you're saying here, write it up and post as a guest article.
It would be a good step to look at the feasibility of "re-localization" of some basic manufacturing.
----------
(Yes, Grey, I understand overshoot. We're getting to that.)
Hi Aniya,
Thanks for the thought about doing a post on local manufacturing, but I'm pretty busy this Spring with getting my new garden/digging/trenching tool business launched. It is EasyDigging.com (though I have been noodling ideas for being able to make these forged digging tools locally since they are so well adapted to small-scale low-capital farming)
On your question about bicycle manufacturing in the US...yes, it would be fairly easy. We still have steel mills and tubing mills here that can make the raw materials (as well as aluminum extruders for even lighter bikes). The more complex parts like the pedal housing and front fork housing are basic machined parts. Gears and chain parts can be stamped, which is very basic old tech. Forming the details at the end of tubes is well known and fairly simple.
The movement of bike production overseas most likely happened in pursuit of cheaper labor rates. There would be quite a bit of labor involved in building bicycles.
I did a Google search on "tube fabrication tools" and found these sites with good pictures:
http://www.componenteng.com/tube-fabrication.html
http://www.crownunlimited.com/CrownNews.htm
...then went searching for "bicycle tube fabrication" and found these:
http://continentalbikeshop.com/page.cfm?PageID=130
http://www.ifbikes.com/
...even found a place with a CAD programs for bike designs:
http://www.bikeforest.com/CAD/index.php
Are you thinking about setting up a local bike plant?
There are also some neat designs out there for bikes with virtually no tubing in them.
There has been some exploration into post-peak local manufacturing. I think it was by a group associated with the guy who wrote "High Noon for Natural Gas" but I can't remember his name...
Greg in MO
Memmel,
Totally agree. Jeffrey and I have discussed this via the phone. In general sympathies we agree except that I see this kicking our asses back to the stone age after a brief period of "depression-like" times that last 2-to-5 years, mabye 10 if we get lucky. During that period, living in a place like Portland and ELPing is a great strategy. But beyond that period, it's ROI will fall quite a bit.
Once the positive feedback loops really kick in, the ones described in the article on Nigeria by Jeff Vail, it's a short ride off the Olduvai cliff.
I hope to have relocated to a corner of the world where I think it will be possible to eke out a stone age level of existence with dignity for the time when ELP stops working.
But till then ELP is the way to go.
memmel, your point about our lack of local manufacturing is a worthwhile one to raise. And as you further note, we "need the government to recognize peak oil and support the recreation of vertical industry." About which you predict: "Not going to happen."
Of course, as it stands right now, that's exactly how it looks. It is not happening now, and it may not happen tomorrow... but then again, it might. As Yogi Berra noted: "The future ain't what it used to be."
In the meantime, and without waiting for our government to act responsibly and help us here, IMO Jeffery's ELP advice is none the less helpful and wise, even if it doesn't cover all the bases. Your POV about this missing base of local production capacity is a valid one, but that doesn't in and of itself justify your pronouncement that Jeffery's ELP ideas, or Alan's about the need for electric trains, are useless or not *realistic.*
I'm quite capable of understanding that Jeffery's, or Alan's, or anybody else's thoughts and ideas about dealing with PO are not the complete-all-in-one and only solution(s) to our predicament. Harping on how they aren't and otherwise running down what otherwise are humanly decent (even tho incomplete) suggestions of HELP is annoying! So, could you please refrain yourself here. Thanks.
One of my ways of ELP preparation with an eye to what you have mentioned about not being able to get parts when needed post PO is to start stocking up on them now. For example, I have a Bergey 1500 windmill up and running on my homestead for which I have a stock of pre-ordered back-up parts to repair it with.
I don't know if this is typical of most PO aware Americans or not. But having extra parts now is part of my ELP strategy, while also hoping that the used and broken parts can be scavenged, repaired, and re-used should Bergey in a post PO day be incapable of providing me. And perhaps in this there is a bit of thinking like an African just like how the Senegalese keep their cars running with scavenged used parts.
It may not be perfect or cover all the bases -- hell, it may one day be completely useless. Still, it's something I can do without waiting on my government to tell me we need to do, and that's a lot better than doing nothing or knocking what anyone else wisely advises us to try and do.
Hence, my thanks go to westexas for sharing his thoughts. They are realistic enough in my book for now and that's not at all unrealistic.
We have understood at least since Adam Smith that there are big economic gains to be achieved through specialization and division of labor. I have read some on this board who claim that all of the world' industrial-era wealth is due to fossil fuel, but that isn't true. The efficiencies inherent in increasing specialization and division of labor are at least as important, if not more so.
I really don't think that an unwinding of two hundred centuries of increasing economic efficiency through specialization and division of labor is something that we really want. The fact is that you can't be totally isolated from society and totally "self sufficient" for very long without eventually descending to the same standard of living that Robinson Crusoe had. Small communities that are totally isolated and self sufficient can do a little better, but you are probably looking at a medieval standard of living at best.
To avoid that type of unwinding, we need commerce, which means we need transport. Assuming anything short of of a total doomer-style meltdown, I should remind people that it it does not take all that much energy to move a container ship from Shanghai to Los Angeles. Worst case, we could even go back to sailing ships -- wind power. Nor does it take all that much more energy to move a freight train across the US; they could be electrified and powered by massive PV arrays in a largely vacated and unihabitable parched southwest. Somehow, it can be made to happen. The incentives to make it happen and the downsides of it not being made to happen assure that it will happen.
As I have said elsewhere on this thread, we have the best politicians that money can buy. Those that have done the buying undoubtedly have a considerable personal and financial interest in pulling their bought politician's strings to manage this thing so that the worst case scenario doesn't unfold and they have a chance to preserve their wealth. That requires that it be managed so that there continues to be some transport, some commerce, and some division of labor.
Hi Stefan,
I appreciate your points, though I'd slightly modify "if not more so", to say both the energy input and the invented use of same have been necessary for the result we see.
I'd also like to encourage thinking about the "bigger picture", in addition to Jeffrey's advice here.
re: "Those that have done the buying undoubtedly have a considerable personal and financial interest in pulling their bought politician's strings to manage this thing so that the worst case scenario doesn't unfold and they have a chance to preserve their wealth."
Qs: Are you making the assumption here that the "buyers":
1) know now, or...
2) will know *and* actually understand the ramifications of "peak" (declining FF input)?
3) And can do so (or have done so) in time to take the requisite actions?
To me, this is a questionable assumption, both because of the magnitude of the implications (the necessity to look at almost everything) and the extreme emotional difficulty of the subject.
For example, while it's almost certain the US VP "knows". http://www.energybulletin.net/349.html. And the authors of the recent GOA report "know", http://www.energybulletin.net/28280.html, (and many others "know" as well.)
Still, we see (for eg.) http://www.energybulletin.net/27278.html
"...it seems to me, is that few if any world leaders understand this enormous, impending dilemma or have any idea what to do about it." (Richard Heinberg, speaking of his visit with representatives of the EU.)
Still, it may be worthwhile to pursue the following line of inquiry:
Yes, positive actions are possible.
Yes, many people have a strong interest in the better outcome.
Q: Do (the "right" people or "enough" people) understand where their best interest actually lies?
Q: Once understanding, can they act in a positive fashion?
Q: What are some plans you see as workable, should the "right persons" be in a position to take them up?
Q: How do we deal with the role of both corporate (http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/04/02/1345218&mode=thread&... and US military forces in the context of wanting the better outcome?
I'll give a stab at a few of these:
"Qs: Are you making the assumption here that the "buyers":
1) know now, or...
2) will know *and* actually understand the ramifications of "peak" (declining FF input)?
3) And can do so (or have done so) in time to take the requisite actions? "
We are talking here of the top management of Fortune 1000 companies, major foundations and other institutions, managers of pension funds and other pools of cash, other wealthy investors, etc., and their counterparts globally. I can assure you that most of these people do not just rely upon TV news and newpapers (aka MSM) for all of their information. Most rely upon in-house staffs of expert researchers and analysts to let them know what the real situation is shaping up as (in contrast to the obfuscation that is SOP for the MSM). If they don't have in house experts they can contract out, and even those with in house shops sometimes also contract out to get a 2nd opinion. We are talking about people making investment decisions involving millions and billions of dollars. Get it right and they get fat paychecks and bonuses and stock option bonanzas; get it wrong and the gravy train stops.
My read on things right now is that most of them are in a "wait and see" mode; that is not identical with an "ignorance" mode. They are well aware (or at least their advisors are) that oil may be peaking, and that there are implications to that. But it is still too early to know exactly how that will all pan out, especially the rate of supply decline and price increase. I think that we can take it for granted that the decision makers and their advisors will keep on top of this though, and when the wind direction becomes clear many of them will be prepared to make some nimble redeployment decisions with their investements. That includes the investments they have made in the politicians that they have bought.
"Q: Do (the "right" people or "enough" people) understand where their best interest actually lies?"
The corporate and financial elites described above did not reach their positions by misunderstanding where their best interests lie. They are totally focused upon preserving the value of capital investments under their control and maximizing the return on said investments. They have all figured out how to be very good at that one way or the other, or else they wouldn't be where they are. We can indeed assume that they will continue to choose actions that will preserve and maximize the returns on their capital.
"Q: Once understanding, can they act in a positive fashion?"
They can't control the world, they can't suspend the law of supply and demand. They must work with whatever hand reality deals them. We can count upon them to try to do what they can to preserve and maximize their return on capital as much as they possibly can. That does not mean that they won't lose some money; it does mean that they won't just sit on their hands and give up in dispair.
"Q: What are some plans you see as workable, should the "right persons" be in a position to take them up?"
Capital and employment both need to be shifted out of "loser" sectors and into those that will survive and grow. There needs to be a massive relocation of population and of production facilities. Massive investments in rail transport are needed, as well as in things like neighborhood electric vehicles, alternative energy systems, and a wide array of energy conservation measures. All of this and more opens up huge opportunities as well as risk, providing plenty of scope for money to be made. Much of this will require governmental facilitation, as well as keeping urban riots at a minimum and maintaining a functioning legal and financial infrastructure.
"Q: How do we deal with the role of both corporate (http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/04/02/1345218&mode=thread&... and US military forces in the context of wanting the better outcome?"
I think I already dealt with the corporate side of things above. The US is already experiencing imperial overstretch ("Peak Empire?"). Our military forces will soon be unwelcome in most of the world, and we will not be able to afford the huge cost of foreign adventures, or even of maintaining our forces at current levels. There will have to be a considerable redeployment of federal government resources toward maintaining domestic security, one way or another. We will continue to have a navy tasked with keeping the sea lanes minimally secure, and we'll continue to have an air force and DHS focused on defending the US from terrorist or rogue state attack. We will soon have to realize that it will actually just cost less to outbid other nations on the global oil market than it does to try to secure oil supplies through military means.
In that case, can these captains of industry please figure out a replacement for the humble honeybee - and fast? That's 1/3 of our foody supply about to go away . . .
I don't think "what we want" really enters into it. We may want to maintain that high level of specialization, but if we can't afford it any more, it's gone.
This is what Tainter, etc., addresses. There's an overhead cost to specialization. Basically, the energy it takes to support people and systems that aren't directly producing anything - whose function is to coordinate among the specialists.
I'm sure we will still have trade. We've had trade since the Stone Age, if not earlier. But it wasn't turnips that traveled the Silk Road, it was expensive luxury goods like silk and spices. Stuff it wasn't possible to produce locally, that was worth the cost of transportation.
You apparently still do not see it. The efficiencies of which you speak are due to industrialization. Industrialization was possible because of machine efficiencies - machines, which are powered largely by fossil fuels.
The very specialization which you cite was made possible by fossil fuels, which enabled labor to go to things other than the basic tasks of living. Just a few hundred years earlier, 99% of the human race toiled as serfs or at best free farmers in order for the nobility and a tiny merchant class to exist.
A barrel of crude oil contains something like 25,000 man hours of labor. Consider that when you consider how the specialization was enabled. No fossil fuels? No industrial civilization. This is why replacing fossil fuels is so urgent and why the lack of a viable alternative is such a formidable challenge.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
"You apparently still do not see it. The efficiencies of which you speak are due to industrialization. Industrialization was possible because of machine efficiencies - machines, which are powered largely by fossil fuels."
No, you are wrong. A complex division of labour makes the introduction of machinery possible. Simplification of the task. Remember the early mills ran on water and wind power.
Fossil fuels certainly fed the process and it is very unlikely we would have experienced the industrial revolution in the way we did, or to the extent we did, if these sources of heat had not been available. Remember the early fabric mills ran on water and wind power.
Whatever happens, the probability of the abandonment of a complex division of labour is next to nil. While I agree with Leanan' and Tainter's point that many types of specialization will be dropped, the energetic advantage of the division of labour will ensure its continuance.
As for a nuclear power plant in the back of the car, I note that one can't put an oil well/refinery/distribution system in the back of a car either. I do know that people and goods can be efficiently moved, in a resource constrained world, on rail driven by electricity. And electricity can run fabric mills and manufacturing plants. We just need to grow up and learn to constrain our demand for electricity.
The real problem is getting people to realize that the production of poetry is far more essential than the production of gadgets, gizmos and gigantic guns.
The early fabric mills started in the N of England [which is my stomping ground]. They could not have expanded into 'the industrial revolution proper' without easy coal. The early mills replaced craft labour working from home [in farms]. The labourers, and early miners walked long distances for work.
Full scale factories needed a lot of manufacturing fuel [wood/coal] for metalwork, ceramics, bricks etc AND - more critically - a high population density for the workforce of the factories. The modern English cities housing workers [ie post 'Great fire of London'] are all brick buildings HEATED BY COAL. This allowed a large workforce to live near the industry.
The other massive factor in industrial growth was easy transport of materials by canal/seaports. Rail was the final phase of the industrialisation - again POWERED BY COAL
regards,
"The early fabric mills started in the N of England [which is my stomping ground]. They could not have expanded into 'the industrial revolution proper' without easy coal."
'Easy coal' had been around for centuries. It was because coal was getting more difficult to mine, that inventors culminating in James Watt were spurred, supported and successful. The steam engine moved from mine to mill.
A thread running through doomer commentaries is the placement of fossil energy, causually and deterministicly, in front of ideas and innovation. The relationship is instead dialectical.
We will never know what course the Enlightment and the industrial revolution would have followed in the absence of coal and then oil and gas.
We do know that the same vibrancy that stimulated the mind of Watt also infected the mind of his contemporary, James Hutton, who discovered deep time and is the father of modern geology. His revolutionary insight underpinned Darwin. Hutton also wrote a treatise on agriculture exposing methods he had developed to successfully rejunevate the supposedly exhausted soil on a farm he operated in Scotland. And no, he did not rely on synthetic fertilizer and machinery. Before Watt's steam engine was more than an idea and workshop project, John Harrisson was developing the marine chronometer of which Captain James Cook would say after his second great voyage in 1775, "Our faithful guide through all the vicissitudes of climates."
Ideas and inventions were shifting the course of history before coal or the steam engine made any kind of significant impact. The availability of coal did make an enormous impact on the outcome of the Enlightenment. But from that we cannot conclude that history and human development would have stood still in the absence of coal.
We are a very gifted species. If we can shed ourselves of the judeo-christian idea of dominion, we might have a future.
And if you take a honest look at our society 99% of what it produces is junk designed to be thrown away from cheap plastic toys to overpriced cheaply constructed houses and commercial buildings. Very little energy is actually used by most of our advanced technology. And here energy efficiency driven primarily by the mobile phone market is making inroads.
So I don't think energy is really a constraint for technology.
And I don't think its a big issue if we use electric rail.
The big thing we should do is build solid long lasting buildings that are well designed insulated. Other than that done correctly or probably more likely after we have finished trying to wipe ourselves out I see no reason we cannot have a vibrant high tech lifestyle that not wasteful of resources.
Whats wrong with well built repairable toys that could be passed down through the generations ? And the same for houses. Or repairable/recyclable long lasting equipment. We could do this today and massively cut or energy usage.
So for me at least I don't see that we will miss the oil age
although the transition will be painful I see a bright future on the other side.
Hi m,
I don't know if anyone is still reading the series here...
Still, I'd like to comment:
Somewhere in this thread, Chimp is talking about 2-3 years of ELP, lots of violence, then quite a collapse (just to roughly paraphrase).
He says he agrees w. Jeffrey on ELP, 'til then.
Someone interprets one of your responses as being critical of ELP. (My take on it was not that you meant to be critical. And I believe your point could fall under the P).
I'm trying to say your point about vertical manufacturing is a good (excellent) point - one we need to pursue.
Here's my Q:
I'm (truly) happy you can envision a brighter future.
I agree with many of your observations, and your definition of needs.
Can you possibly start to outline a "WAY" to get from here to there? Or, even simply elements of the way.
It looks like Lester Brown is taking a crack at it., for example. http://www.earth-policy.org/
Agree on the dialectic of ideas and material circumstances, well put. And yet in the case of at least some of these early inventors and risk-taking entrepreneurs, whose achievements and ideas you extol, their strong work ethic was closely tied to "the judeo-christian idea of dominion", which you later oppose. Your comment prompted me, following Weber's lead, to explore the religious upbringing of the figures you mention. From what I can find out so far, James Watt was from a strongly Presbyterian family, though James Cook and John Harrison seem to have had no major religious influence in the upbringing.
You raise a very important point, however. The "fossil fuel determinism" approach of most doomers is very seductive, but as we see from pre- and early-modern eras, as well as from the periphery and interstices of the modern world system, people are very adaptable and clever. This is not to deny the possibility of dieoff of some magnitude, but I think the record shows that people will adjust in ways now not thought possible by many here on TOD. Cultural and religious predispositions will stimulate or hinder these adaptive processes in interesting ways.
You forgot that there were a considerable number of inventions and innovations along the way that led to NEW & BETTER machines, and in some cases bigger machines. The input of the brain power of scientists and engineers and managers was at least as important as the input of energy. The good news is that there is no reason why the inputs of scientists and engineers and managers have to go away.
Energy is just one factor of production, along with things like land (of which energy is actually just a subset), labor, and capital. All of these factors have been constantly changing, sometimes increasing in supply and sometimes decreasing. They are taken into an account by a free market, and adjustments in the patterns of production are made accordingly. As we transition into a world where energy is an increasingly scarce factor of production, production will be changed to use less of it. Scientits and engineers and managers will focus their efforts on making that happen.
I don't think anyone is forgetting that at all.
But you have to ask yourself...why is knowledge lost? We know that it is. The Easter Islanders can no longer make those stone statues. The Egyptians do not remember how to build pyramids; they couldn't even read the writing of their ancestors. Ditto the Maya. The Minoans invented the printing press and the flush toilet, but those very useful inventions were lost until they were re-invented from scratch, thousands of years later.
Could it be that it's abundant resources - wealth - that allow a society to support the experts who build pyramids and printing presses? And when those resources become scarce, and the society less wealthy, they lose even seemingly valuable knowledge.
After all, if you're working from dawn to dusk just trying to grow enough food to feed your family, you aren't going to have much spare time to learn nuclear physics or computer science.
Dear Stefan,
As you seem to be getting quite a lot of "stick" from people for your views, I thought I might as well jump on you from a great hight in relation to your remarks about dear old Robinson Crusoe! The guy lived like a lord, don't diss him or his lifestyle. Around here, among the "Diciples of Doom" those of us that are lucky enough to maintain a lifestyle, post peak, which is anywhere near as "advanced" as Crusoe's will consider themselves lucky bunnies indeed!
A mild division of labor had occurred throughout history dozens of times. Roman craftsmen, Phoenicians, Babylonians, Egyptians, Mayans, etc. Every single time it stopped at a certain level. Why? Because a large fraction of productivity was necessarily expended in agriculture to keep that small subset of specialized labor in business.
Enter fossil fuels and we go from 99% agrarian to 2% agrarian populations. If you truly fail to understand what this means, if you truly fail to understand the difference between fossil fuel powered agriculture and manual agriculture, then I am afraid that further conversation is rather pointless.
I wish you the best, sir, though I suggest that you study history a bit more acutely.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
This is one reason why I'm advocating we better get very good at robotics the only way to break from the past is mechanized or technology based solutions. These don't have to be done the way we do now but if we don't we go back to having everyone in agriculture with the net EROI very low. And its not quit as bad as you make out generally you don't do agriculture after dark and we know how to make lighting now so you can do non ag stuff for a few hours each night. We probably will have more people involved in agriculture but hopefully technology can help us keep from getting trapped in the old problems.
Also not simple electric or gasp ethanol/bio-diesel or compressed air powered equipment can substantially reduce the needed labor and thus increase the EROI of a farm.
Doing things like growing corn just as a source of ethanol does not make sense but using a portion of your local plant material to power efficient crop growing equipment for food is a very different problem. And it seems almost obvious that the EROI is much higher then using manual labor powered by food.
"from 99% agrarian to 2% agrarian populations"
99% is an overestimation. Not to mention that many peasants supplemented their incomes by cottage industries or seasonal labor. A typical peasant in 1600 had to give up 50% of his production to the lord, clergy, landowner etc. Even considering that he needed to earn part of that back through services for those groups, that still amounts to 60-80% of the population engaged in food production - definitely not 99%.
Aside from that, there have been lots of small improvements in farming (clover, raised beds, better tools, etc.) that improved productivity quite a lot.
Stefan,
My guess is the people pulling their strings will pull the strings so they invade the last oil-rich producing provinces with orders to kill any and all who get in their way.
How much you want to bet it's just a matter of time before a regime is installed here in the U.S. that declarea a "global war" that just so happens to be where all the oil is at the cost of billions of dollars per week?
Oh wait, that already happened. Seven years ago. My bad for forgetting. Your bad for not noticing.
My point is the strategy of those pulling the strings should be painfully obvious by now: grab what's left and kill whoever gets in the way, enslave those who don't. Just because they haven't started killing and enslaving you and yours doesnt' mean this isn't what is going on.
As the saying goes, "the future is here, it's just not widely distributed yet." I posit the future has arrived in Baghdad, New Orleans, and Detroit. Take a look at those cities and ask yourself what you think the strategy of those pulling the strings. Soon it will arrive in Mexico City, Los Angeles, and Tehran.
Please explain how my model is not an accurate model of the reality currently unfolding before us.
Hi Chimp,
Ever one to chime in on your comments...
re: "Please explain how my model is not an accurate model of the reality currently unfolding before us."
re: "people pulling their strings".
I agree, you have many accurate observations about the current reality, and it appears to be continuing on. There is much killing, violence, and traumatic aftermath. It is unspeakable, really, in its horror.
It was thought up by some people, and perpetrated with the cooperation of many, many more - even the very reluctant cooperation. And accompanied by the first time in the history of the world (please correct me if I'm mistaken, I hope I'm paraphrasing Howard Zinn), there was a huge, worldwide protest *prior* to the start of a war.
This is all true, and your unblinking eyes can see it.
I also see (if I may indulge myself) you - someone who cares deeply.
I see other people here.
I see Alan in New Orleans (though that may also be a case of for "better or for worse" - he's definitely shared some amazing things.)
I have seen things work - in the way that makes people cry with relief and joy.
The world's largest protest did not prevent the smaller number of people from perpetuating this.
Still, we are here. The model is partial. We can do our best. Perhaps it will be something unforeseen by the model.
www.combatantsforpeace.org
I am 100% for ELP and think its the right idea. But trying to successfully execute ELP in todays society is in my opinion impossible and will not succeed. If you want to maintain a modern lifestyle. The problems is one key ingredient the localize part is very hard to do given the current nature of our manufacturing base.
If you want to localize we are missing a lot of the pieces needed to successfully localize and its a big problem and your back to requiring government support are at the minimum significant investment by someone to develop local replacements and small scale manufacturing to allow a basic high standard of living without relying on far flung manufacturing.
If we don't solve this part of the problem then we have nto done ELP if you don't do the localization part you don't make the production part. At best you managed to economize.
Now I'm not saying that if you own land you should not have a garden. Where I grew up everyone had a garden. Many raise chickens etc. This simply using your land productively. Of course for other jobs you don't want a suburbia style existence gardens or not dense population makes sense so for a industrial society commercial farming is a requirement.
Their are many ways to do it but the point is the homestead farmer thats self sufficient with little excess is not exactly a big contributor to future society. He may enjoy his life but you may find he is not helping as much as he could. This means you should be a real farmer and produce enough to live at farming.
In Taiwan the farmers live in apartment blocks standing in the middle of the fields it looks strange put its the best use of the land. Thats the right way to do intense agriculture. The scattered farmhouse are inefficient.
In Europe its small villages.
From what I can tell reading the list a lot of people are not really doing a good job of even getting the food part right. If you have the money you should do what I plan to do buy as much prime farmland as I can and invite Vietnamese and Mexican farmers to live for free if they help farm the land and we share the profits. Most Americans are too selfish to even consider this. But ten people on a village farm will easily out produce 10 scattered land owners any day of the week.
And as I stated before real Localization is very hard today.
ELP is not easy. But if we are serious about it consider real solutions.
Finally Peak Oil is real and we have to solve these problems regardless how how you feel about me bringing them up. I don't think making a bunch of people feel good is important.
Hi m,
re: "prime farmland"
Do you have a location in mind?
Thanks for your comments. Have been contemplating a Bergey myself and would be interested in your commments about it. Are you on the grid or operating with batteries? What part of the country are you in and what is your experience with generating efficiencies. How about your tower height? and did you get a galvanized tower? what do you consider the key backup parts. Regards
On January 18th of this year, I gave a presentation to the urban county government planning commission and part of that presentation stated plainly that the electric streetcars and trolley lines that had been eliminated previously needed to be put back and then some - that the system needed to be expanded to every neighborhood, not just the immediately downtown ones, and that express electric streetcars and/or light rail connections to the neighborhood trolleys needed to be developed instead of pouring more and more money into the buses everybody here hates (and won't ride unless they're forced to at gun point, because in spite of our "award-winning" traffic light system, the traffic is still mostly screwed up). Anyway, they just looked at me like I was crazy. In spite of our "comprehensive plan" process there is no way concerned citizens can compete with developers and other entrenched city departments (like the bus system) which ask for more and more money. Developers absolutely will not allot any of their land for such systems (or for affordable housing, either - but that's a different rant), and the urban county government has far too many other "priorities" than preparing for the future. It's hopeless. By the time I can go back and say, "I told you so," it will be far, far to late.
Hi Ahavah,
I'm interested in this, and sorry you didn't have better luck. Depressing.
I'm curious...did you talk about "peak oil" as part of your presentation (don't want to assume)?
If so, how did people respond to that part of it?
Had any of them seen any of the "peak" films or anything along those lines?
Did you have anyone else working with you?
I'm wondering if there might be another way to reach these stakeholders (developers, planners, entrenched city depts.) Not that there is - just if it's possible, it would be good to figure it out.
"I'm curious...did you talk about "peak oil" as part of your presentation (don't want to assume)?"
If so, I hope he didn't bring up that whole "iron triangle" theory....sounds as paranoid as the John Birch Society, and as nutty as a sack of cats to most people....if you talk about even good and sensible ideas like ELP, but open the subject with paranoid delusion, your sure to fall to the floor like a sack of shiit....oh yeah, and be sure to recommend against getting a college degree in a room full of people with a college degree, that's sure to be a crowd pleaser! :-) geeesh......
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
RC, I think that you do a disservice to Jeffrey when you you paint the Iron Triangle as though it is some sort of conspiracy theory. It's not as if newspaper editors and automobile dealership managers and real estate brokers and CERA get together in secret to plan their next assault on the public. No, it is simply that the interests of those groups are all interlocking and reinforcing, and that is something that can be analyzed quite rationally in the light of day. It's called groupthink: things have always been this way; today's conditions are an extension of how they have always been; and today's arrangement makes me money. Therefore, things will always be this way going into the future. Ipso facto, ergo profit, if I may be cute.
Agreed.
Don't make me go Chimpy (TM) on your ass RC!
I did talk mostly about peak oil, mostly, with a bit about climate change thrown in. I can actually cut and paste the speech, which was also submitted in the form of a letter to them at the meeting (I made copies for everyone), if you want to see it. I may have sacrificed a bit in clarity or "justification" to cram more into the allotted 12 minutes, but it seems amazing to me that people would have no base knowledge of the subject. They said they wanted "concrete suggestions" from the public at the meeting, so that's what I focused on when I prepared, emphasizing steps they could adopt and not so much on rationalizations. My husband is a GIS specialist and has been with the division of long range planning for 30+ years, long before they even had GIS. At the office, all peak oil planning or references have been basically ignored or shot down in staff meetings and we're not inclined to jeopardize his job, so he didn't speak. I was/am a legal transcriptionist, and had been involved with the water supply planning commission, and the comp plan process of previous administrations, so the people there who knew me there would not exactly by shocked to see me making proposals. But they are absolutely deaf and blind to any suggestion that the status quo can't go on and that things need to change.
Hi Ahavah,
Thanks and I'd love to see your talk. Could you please email it to me at aniyacafe (at) yahoo (dot) com? I've been running out of time to read drumbeats and even articles lately.
You're in the Bay Area, right? I was wondering - doesn't SF have a "peak" resolution?
I see the water issue as crucial. To me, in the top of the list is a distributed, renewable (wind, solar) energy retrofit for purification and transport of water. Like...yesterday. i.e, ASAP.
Aniya,
Seems to me you're still in the "bargaining" phase. "Maybe if we just show them the right film" or "maybe if we just string together the proper sequence of sentences." No siree Bob.
Let's face it: what she said is true. There is nothing that can be done beyond the multi-family level, and even that is a bit of a stretch as you need to get A) your family on board and B) then find 3-5 other families similar minded.
It's not going to matter what film you show people, how persusively you argue your point, . . .
Hi Chimp,
Thanks for writing. I wrote a sincere reply to you - I think April 17. (I'll go look for it.) I don't know if I'm "bargaining" or not - I think not. I was asking her out of curiosity. I'm not sure there's "nothing" that can be done. Perhaps the things that can be done have nothing to do with persuading people of anything. Just don't know.
westexas, thanks so much for all the work you are doing to inform us about the many different aspects of PO.
There are a multitude of reasons why Portland is an attractive city. I'm thinking of moving out there myself. I'd like to know, though, how is the manufacturing base there? Given your recent trip there, what was your impression of the industry there as compared to other places? How robust is the manufacturing there? Are there many foundries, machine shops, etc...?
Anyone else have thoughts about this? Any Portlandians (er... Portlanders?) out there?
I think I've reached the limit of question marks allowed in one post so I'll leave it at that.
Thanks.
I am a native,what do you want to know? there is between 300 to 400 steel faricator shops listed in our company directory,we have one group who just started manufactureing streetcars...worlds largest solar cell manf. center will be started at a defunct chip plant,{that could clone itself...we got a couple of unused chip plants that could be switched over to solar cell manufacture}we got lotsa engineer types,top of the line robotics in accufab,and other firms here in the northwest...we have heavey manf. capacity,like Oregon Iron,but we just lost freightliner to mexico
Silicon forest is no joke...some very fine minds in that feild hang here.My brother is a robotics engineer,and is now doing bleeding edge work in RFID tech...
there is saturday market downtown,farmers markets everywhere,and the general state of mind is more"stay out of my hair,and I will stay out of yours"