The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: April 10, 2007

168 comments on DrumBeat: April 10, 2007

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Swede on April 10, 2007 - 9:37am

Well, it seems to be peak almost everything. Are we all freaking doomed, as the Mogambo Guru says. Or is it that we who are in the know, and have prepared, and live in the right place are those who are going most likely to survive?

I have done all the preparations that i can think of: Supply of one year canned food, weapons and ammunition,tools, no depth, savings in gold, small rural house by a river with fish and possibility to grow vegetables in the summer, woodstove, bicykles, small car(and no need for car anyway if it really is going to be tough times).

The place is in northern Sweden near the arctic circle, which means that the area is sparsely inhabited. The only problem is to survive the long winters. But with 8 kubikmeters of wood it is no problem even if you are off grid.
Then i believe, that we will maintain electricity in Sweden, because we have now 50% nuclear and 50% hydroelectric. The only question is if there will be problems with maintainence of theese systems without oil?

Interesting times ahead indeed.

Kenneth

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jokuhl on April 10, 2007 - 9:53am

Lotta good prep there, Kenneth.

'Depth' caught me for a second.. aha! "Debt!" That's a big one.

I think two of the 'Medium Tech' items to stock up on and find applications for is Glass and Mirror Surfaces. Solar Ovens, Hot Water and Air Heaters, Greenhouses, Concentrators, Mirrors can help make the most out of candle and lantern light. Glass containers are invaluable for food and water storage.

Also good to have a 'boneyard' of useful scraps. Metals, Plastics, Mechanical bits, linkages, wheels.. etc.

Make friends with the Tomte's too. You'll need em.

Bob

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Swede on April 10, 2007 - 10:38am

Hi Bob
Yes i have thought about green house an so on, and we will perhaps buy those also.

Kenneth

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abelardlindsay on April 10, 2007 - 9:46pm

Two things I'm doing:

1. Learning Organic/Permaculture/Low Energy Farming.

2. Praying for a techno-fix. :)

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Swede on April 10, 2007 - 10:40am

Bob
Wwo is the tomte´s?

Kenneth

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jokuhl on April 10, 2007 - 4:28pm

As I understood it, the Tomte's are like Swedish Forest Gnomes/Elves, if you will. The Yul Tomte (Jul?) is the 'Christmas Elf'. Magical Little Folk who traipse about your barns at night, whispering to the cows, and leaving little buckets of Abiotic Oil on your doorstep.

My Grandfather was a Johannson from Linkoping, down south of Stockholm. Maybe its a southern thing..

Bob

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Lugal on April 10, 2007 - 4:35pm

No, it's the same in the whole of Sweden, and you're mostly correct. A 'tomte' would be a gnome/elf. The Tomte with a capital T would be Father Christmas.

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 4:39pm

You 're spot on Bob! You know your Tomtes alright!

Whish I got the type leaving me abiotic oil, I actually belive more in the Tomte than the abiotic oil though... ;)

Yes Santa is called Jultomte

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Magnus Redin on April 11, 2007 - 10:31am

Nice, Linköping is my home town. We seem to have fairly "green" infrastructure when compared with the US norm but a lot more can be done.

My main peak oil preparation is to study engineering and energy to get a job in that sector but first I need to find some inspiration on how to specialise. Sadly it isent going especially well, I am not good at selling myself. And instead of specialising I pondered peak oil close to being depressed and ended up with an overall peak oil + global warming + swedish industry view wide as an encyclopedia that is useless for making a living, oups...

The long shot is to try to influence municipiality and national politics, hard but I might have made a tiny difference, its hard to measure. I am good at finding and combining ideas and not especially good at politics. ;-)

In case TSHTF I joined the home guard since I anyway cant avoid trying to help with serious problems and I rather try togeather with other people and with at least some resources to bear on a problem.

Stocking up with a years worth of food or having a garden is useless if you cant earn a living, priority one is to find some company etc that needs a person like me.

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 10:20am

Impressive prep Kenneth! But 8 m3 of firewood is not really much, hope you got your own forrest too!

Anyway, I'm a Swede too :) , but live in the suburbs of Stockholm. I'm not extremely pessimistic about this peak oil thing, but sure as hell prices gonna go up on petrol and energy as a whole.

My preps are as follows:
- Geotermal heat pump for my house with possibillity to combine with solar heat
- Woodstove (guess I'll have to burn the furniture if the shit really hits the fan...)
- Better insulation of the house (only made like 25% of the house this far)
- The house is only 1 km (0,7 miljes) from an electric train so I do not have to use any car to get to work etc.
- Old tough military bicycle will get me the short distances
- Ethanol compatible car (Yes a bought the hype when I bought the car...)

Mayor worry for me is my debt, it is like 80% of the market value of the house.

I hope this will be enough, but if it failes I own 25% of a farmhouse with a lot of forrest and arrable land 200 km (140 miles) north of Stockholm

Olle

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Swede on April 10, 2007 - 10:52am

OLLE
Actually 8 m3 wood is all that we need for the winter heating. The house is only 65 squaremeter, well insulated with new superwindows.

For you i think that you should go out of debt, but that could of cource be difficult, if you must live in Stockholm because you have a job there. I myself am newly retired, so i have had the time to pay off all debts.

Plan for reallocation out of the city if all goes ugly. The problem in Stockholm, is that there is a housingbubble, which will burst within a couple of years. You should sell NOW and rent in the mean time.

Kenneth

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 12:11pm

I know Kenneth, there is a bubble, it is just a question of how big it is. I love my house and take my chances that the bubble is small and will not burst to violently...

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mencial on April 10, 2007 - 10:27am

¿Why no debt? If it is all going to go down burnin', ¿why not pile up a nice pile of debt in paper, in exchange for some real stuff? Get yourself a nice tool shop, or some sheep and cows. Something you can do for a living while the crash comes, and then you will find yourself in an very viable position.

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 10:44am

Well, I do not belive that civilisation will be over after peak oil. I actually belive that technology will save the day, BUT we will have a lot of pain in a couple of decades and if energy prices really take of, so will inflation and then the interest rates will be higher. That is the reason to keep debt down.

I do not believe I will have to retreat to the farm I partly own, but since it is my summer house anyway, I call it my plan B to get some cred from the hard core doomers :)

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LevinK on April 10, 2007 - 11:49am

If you believe both iflation and interest rates will go up (like I do in the medium to the long term) maybe the most prudent thing would be to draw on a line of credit with fixed interest rate now, even if this is at premium to current rate. Thus you will be repaying your debt with devaluating money and your interest rate payments won't go up - a win win situation.

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 12:03pm

Thanks for proposal LevinK, but the premium is to high for me, I take my chances with the not fixed interet rate loans. However, I allways keep 150,000 SEK (20,000$) easy awailable on the bank in case it is needed in short notice. That is my back up.

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Swede on April 10, 2007 - 1:22pm

Olle
Buy some gold fore theese 150 000 SEK.

Kenneth

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 1:48pm

I do not know really if gold is so valuable anymore. All the money in the world are fiat-money nowadays, gold is just like any other commodity I guess. Why would we need a lot of gold in a post peak world?

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cmason on April 10, 2007 - 5:41pm

Because gold has "real" value, while fiat currencies don't. Other physical commodities have real value too, gold is just one of the most "condensed".

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 7:34pm

Nope, gold only has the value of what someone want to buy it for. And why is gold a good investment in a peak oil world?

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enviro attny on April 10, 2007 - 7:19pm

gold is just like any other commodity I guess.

And just like any other commodity, its value is based upon the amount of energy involved in its production. Therefore, its value is constant, regardless of what happens to the currency you buy it in. Its value cannot (over any long term) be affected by the fluctuations of fiat currencies.

Gold has been the gold standard of commodities because it doesn't rust, doesn't rot, can be subdivided into extremely small amounts, and cannot be faked. As long as the world utilizes some form of currency in place of the barter system, gold will be the ultimate form of wealth.

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Olle on April 10, 2007 - 7:36pm

"And just like any other commodity, its value is based upon the amount of energy involved in its production."

No, this is pointless neoMarxism. Gold is worth what you are willing to pay for it or trade it for

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Leanan on April 10, 2007 - 7:42pm

Agreed. Gold was still worth something in Argentina during the collapse (though they recommended small pieces, like gold wedding rings, since you couldn't "cash" larger ones). But in Sarajevo, they said things like shampoo and cast iron cookware were more valued than gold:

After awhile, even gold can lose its luster. But there is no luxury in war quite like toilet paper. Its surplus value is greater than gold's.

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enviro attny on April 10, 2007 - 9:42pm

Eventually, the war stops and all of the S has HTF. At that point, people will start making shampoo, skillets and toilet paper to sell. That is when the gold will be quite a bit more valuable than any barter item. Barter economies are not efficient, and will not last for any significant amount of time.

It is tough to buy toilet paper with a skillet.

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enviro attny on April 10, 2007 - 9:38pm

Over the short term, yes the value of gold can decrease. However, over the long term, the value has to be based upon the cost to extract. As with any other commodity, if it sells for less than the cost to extract, new extraction will cease, driving up the cost over the long term. Since the mining cost for gold will not go down in the future, the true value of gold can only go up.

Gold will only lose its value if people no longer consider it to be the ultimate means to store wealth. With 6000 years of history on my side, I am not too worried about that happening.

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NZSanctuary on April 11, 2007 - 1:01am

Agreed, although even if gold is no longer seen as the ultimate means to store wealth, it has other properties that people will desire. Not only will gold and silver retain value in the long run as effective forms of money, they also have value in medicine, electronics, jewellery, photography, etc. They have had other uses beyond merely storing wealth for 1000s of years. That will not change.

"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein

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