Hi Roger,

Yes, well...everyone may have "moved on", but here I am coming back to catch up.

Main question: So, what are some of your ideas for the "best case" "best, most positive mitigation paths and strategies" WRT "peak"?

What are some of the "elegant designs" that strike you as being worthwhile?

Sincere questions.

Otherwise, re: "...Richard Heinberg among others come to mind. Does anyone believe that if the energy problem were to be resolved on a technical and carbon release front, these guys would suddenly endorse the American suburban capitalist way of life?"

I have to say, I'm kind of biased about Richard, because I've met him and have a sense of trust and confidence in him. I stay away from Kunstler's work, not because his points are invalid, more one of just personal taste.

My sense of Richard is that he is working from a reasoned and caring viewpoint. His approach is calm and deliberate, and my impression is - he's come to most of his concerns out of open-ended exploration, not visa versa. Or course, I do not know for sure.

In terms of "resolved", well, we're still left with the unhappy idea of the finiteness of resources.

In general, growth cannot continue unabated. But that's something you know...?

Aniya, glad your still here, and hope you come back to check for a reply, the challenging questions you raise are too good not to want to discuss!

First you ask:
Main question: So, what are some of your ideas for the "best case" "best, most positive mitigation paths and strategies" WRT "peak"?

This is a broad enough subject to require a book, but let me go in the general direction that I have been developing (and not me alone but many others who are concerned about energy issues in the world).

1. I have come to believe that conservation and efficiency are the first and most cost effective means of stretching the world energy supply and reducing greenhouse gas. That is not a radical theory, it is often mentioned here at TOD. But by extension, I have come to a much more radical theory, being,

2. Conservation and efficiency will have to be essentially "transparent",
that is to say, the average consumer/customer will have to be made to be efficient without even knowing it, and while suffering no major impact on the convenience/comfort of his/her lifestyle. In fact, it can be argued that the efficiency must actually enhance the comfort/convenience of lifestyle.

Why? Because most consumers will not, or, and this is important CANNOT reduce consumption if it involves a great change in lifestyle or great sacrifice.

We live in a very complex culture, and one with a rapidly growing population of elderly, single aging females, and professionally trained "information/clerical/office" workers. All these things combine to mean that our population is not only unwilling to suffer a huge change in living conditions, most cannot. Pure and simply, they would risk a rapidly declining level of health and well being and many would not survive.

I will use myself as an example: I was raised around farming. My grandfather had the closest thing one can imagine to a "survivalist" type farm. No running water, it came from a spring. We killed and ate chickens, beef, and pigs, gathered eggs as they were layed, milked cows, and had a wide variety of garden vegetables grown on the farm. He had two mules, which were worked well into the 1960's. Many years, he came to town perhaps twice or three times, to buy a few staples (salt, pepper, etc, that could not be grown) and to grind corn for corn meal, as he had no grinding mill (one had existed, driven by water on the creek on the farm, but it finally washed away in flooding, broke apart to the point it was not replaced) I know that one can survive in such an ultra low energy environment....except...

I suffer from severe hypertension, hereditary in nature. My grandfather suffered from it, eventually being disabled by a stroke, and having to be moved to a nursing home. My aunts, uncles, father and several cousins suffer from it, many younger than myself.

Without modern medication taken daily, our odds of survival begin to drop. In my own case, after about 48 hours, I begin to have "starburst" vision, and begn to become incoherent in writing, speech and comprehension. Within hours, my blood pressure will exceed "hypertension crisis level",
over 220/170 and I go to the emergency room to have it brought down by intravenous injection. So, all of my knowledge of how to survive in a primitive manner are of no benefit. I must work for the preservation of the modern age.

But I am only one of millions. Hypertension, diabetes, heart blockage, kidney and digestive issues affect tens of millions of Americans. Their ability to change lifestyle in a fundamental was is very limited.

"Elegant conservation' and efficiency must be almost invisible in nature.

Can this be done? Of course, but the design has be done very well. A few examples of elegant design already in use:

(a) Ground coupled heat pumps. These extract heat and cooling from the tempeture of the Earth, and avoid the wild swings of air tempeture in climate control. I have freinds who have them, and have almost forgotten they have them! Then, they have a dinner party, and hear some speak of what they are paying for natural gas heating or air conditioning costs. My heat pump owning friend was astounded! It was the first time he had heard of such prices! Surely, he said, you must be miscounting! That price can't be right can it? Have you called your gas company, maybe you have a leak!
THAT is elegant design!

(b) Transportation: Have you ever noticed the airfoil on the top of the cabs of tractor trailer trucks? In the early 1970's, those did not exist. NASA did wind tunnel studies in research to reduce fuel consumption in America, and pointed out that these could be of great benefit. Truck manufacturerers at first said they would install them on new trucks, the drivers would not like them. Fleet owners, when they saw the results and the potential savings of Diesel fuel (and money) thought otherwise, bought aftermarket versions of the airfoil spoilers, and had them installed. HUGE savings finally forced the truck manufacturers to build them into new trucks. The amount of Diesel fuel saved since the 1970's by these aerodynamic devices has been huge. And unlike other fuel saving devices, they were not abandoned in the later 1980's-90's when fuel prices dropped, because there was no sacrifice in using them, and people were used to the styling of them.
Elegant design!

At the same time, (late 1970's-early 1980's, a pharmacist friend of my families bought one of the Mercedes 300E series cars. He was smitten! The car was electronically governed to 143 miles per hour, comfortable, fast, and modern looking:
http://www.automobilemag.com/features/news/20_greatest_cars/0604_1987_me...

Named as one of the 20 greatest cars ever built, it is hard now to understand what a sensation this car was at the time. But, it was tricky! Through careful windtunnel testing, the car's aerodynamic drag was reduced by about a fourth compared to the model it replaced (but through details, no one could easily see where), and the drivetrain, with lockup torque converter, extra high top gear, and very efficient engine, was far more efficient than the car it replaced. The result was a car that would get easily 20% or more better fuel economy than the model it replaced, BUT was faster, quieter and more comfortable!
Elegant design!
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Turning to the future, this is the type of design we must look for in alternatives:
It must reduce consuption of fossil fuel and or increase production of energy without increasing imput of fossil fuel, but do it without the customer really noticing it is happening. Below are some examples:

Confluence on the transportation front:
One of the most promising technologies is hydraulic hybrid drive:
http://www.hydraulicspneumatics.com/200/Issue/Article/False/38545/Issue

This system holds the possibility of fuel savings of 70%, and greenhouse gas carbon emission reductions of 40% (as my friend above said in shock, can that be right?). The article linked above gives plenty of food for thought, but consider this: This sytem has possibility for use in school buses, sanitation trucks, mail delivery, RV and motorhomes, utility company service trucks, on and on. But what about private cars? A Diesel Mercedes sedan will currently get about 30 to 35 miles per gallon. Imagine a 70% fuel consumption savings on top of that, and you are looking at 50 miles per gallon plus, and this with a comfortable roomy sedan, and better acceleration from a standing start!
Elegant design!

The plug hybrid electric car has everything going for it, all we are waiting for is the batteries, and we are close. This is a car that several of my middle aged female friends are curious about, not for the fuel savings, but for the convenience of only having to go to the convenience store rarely to refuel.
For older women, it is easy to forget that the gasoline car entails some inconvenience. So used are they to not having to endure any discomfort they do now want to, it is becoming a real annoyance to them!

The greatest "transparent" alternative energy is solar. Placed on the roof of homes, businesses, warehouses, out of sight, out of mind, all the customer cares about is the cheap clean power, they do not care where it comes from:

Confuence on the solar front:

http://www.solarforecast.com/

http://www.solarforecast.com/ArticleDetails.php?articleID=333

http://www.solarforecast.com/ArticleDetails.php?articleID=322

The confluence of CIS and CIGS (Copper, Indium, Gallium and Selenium) along with high concentrating solar collectors is moving now at a VERY fast pace.
What is lacking is development of electric storage technology, and integration of the advances into the grid system.

The variety of elegant solar solutions is much more varied than some realize:
http://www.seia.org/solartypes.php#

Solar coupled with ground coupled heat pump can create shopping malls and office buildings that use less fossil fuel than a current private house, but the savings will create absolutely no discomfort to the users of the building.

Likewise, earth bermed architecture. many buildings are what the Germans once referred to as “facadentecture” in that they only put one face forward (one side) as an aesthetic front to the world, while the other sides of the building are nothing but warehouse looking sheer walls. Go around to the backside of most shopping malls, hospitals, and even schools and one sees this effect readily (have you ever been around to the backside of most Walmart stores?

If these buildings are oriented with the south side facing correctly, the other three sides can easily be bermed with earth, making them storm safe as well as hugely energy efficient. We could go on for days, but as we can see, there is plenty of work to be done. If I had a child with promising technical skills, I would encourage them into the field of alternative and efficient energy design, it is a growing field full of promise (unless the price of oil collapses, in which case....a person would have had a rewarding early career, and look for the switch....
------

Speaking of growing, your other major question:

"In general, growth cannot continue unabated. But that's something you know...?

In general, I agree. But, growth does not have to continue unabated for humans to have a fulfilling and decent life. And defining growth in anything better than "general" terms can be tricky.

In 1980, Alvin Toffler pointed up some of what he called the CODA of industrial civilization: The worship of growth was one of the codes, as was the cult of bigness, centralization, maximization, synchronization, and standardization. All these were considered at the heart of modern existance in an industrial modern culture.

But the definintion of "growth" has been very narrow. If one can go 100 miles on the same amount of fuel as it used to take to go 25 miles, is not that a type of growth, efficiency growth, that frees up wealth to do other things?
If by way of flattening population growth through the will of women and birth control, does not the wealth per capita grow (there is only two ways to grow per capita income....increase the income or hold down the per capita! :-)

Is it possble to develop new financial arrangements and tools to increase an individuals access to many assets, without the individual having to own them? If I can rent a race car the quality of an Indianapolis 500 racer and drive it a few times because I wanted to know what a thrill it would be, then turn it back to the owers to rent to someone else, would there be any need to ever build more than a handful of them? Likewise, a high speed boat, or a luxury condo on the beach for me and my mistress to play in once in a while? ;-)

Growth of human experience can be accomplished without exactly matching growth of oil consumption. And we must remember that oil and natural gas are only forms of energy. Energy on Earth, despite what some say, is NOT a closed system. This is why I am such a beliver in making the effort on solar energy. As solar collecting efficiencies grow, is that not a form of growth in the energy supply, more and more power, essentially extracted from thin air?
We need to study carefully what we mean when we say "growth". Again, the issue of transparency comes up: If people were enjoying as much freedom of movement as ever, and as much comfort and security as ever, and a vareity of interesting eperiences, would they know or care if the economy was "growing" per se, in the old definition?

Lastly, Richard Heinberg. Let me say that I have always enjoyed Richards writing and thinking, and do accept that he is sincere. I was not speaking ill of his work in anyway, he is sharp, and can build a convincing arguement.

My discussion centered around his core "philosophical" and aesthetic belief, and what he desires for the world. I really don't know. In his early work, he seems to at times have a great deal in common with the "deep green" or neo-primitivist philosophers. There are many among those groups who see anything that delays what they see as the inevitable collapse (because all cultures collapse someday) as a false path. Thus, technology is not something to be endorsed, even if it works very well, because the better it works, the longer it delays the inevitable collapse!

Heinberg does not seem to be that radical. I do know what he seems to be certain will happen. I just wonder what he wants to happen, in the deepest place in his heart. I do think Heinberg cares about people. I just sometimes wonder about many in the peak movement, and those aligned with the "deep green movement", as to whether they realize that the so called "sustainable" culture they sometimes describe will mean early death to many people, possibly as many as 100 million in the U.S. alone were it to actually come to pass. Of course, death will come to us all. In one way, one could say that the only truly "sustainable" course is suicide. But, I think we should try out some technical ideas first, just for fun! If we're all "Dead Men Walking" what harm can it do! :-)

Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

Please note that the "hydraulic hybrid" systems only achieve huge savings in very short stop-and-go cycles, such as garbage trucks moving from house to house.  Hybrids of any kind don't get much (if any) improvement at a steady pace on a road.

You're absolutely right about the standard of living issue; any claim that we must cut back and accept less leads to denial.  This is why the "Sustainability" proposal is aimed at supplying 100% of current end-use energy requirements for transport and electric.

Hi Roger and Engineer,

I appreciate your response, Roger, and just wanted you to know I did read it. Lots here to discuss.
-----------------------------------------
Engineer: Thanks and,

re: "...the 'Sustainability' proposal..."

Could you please let me know what you're referring to here?
Thanks.

Just to make sure I do not accidently offend, when I used the term "sustainable" I was not referring to the work of Engineer Poet, but I was being deeply ironic regarding the ultra primitive version of it as described by the "deep green" or "neo-primitivist" camp.

I am still trying to digest the math and the ideas in what Engineer Poet calls "this monster". I admire the line of thinking very much, and when I first studied it, I of course began to think of the possibility of confluence with some of the ultra efficient "electric" based grid based work I was describing.

I hope Aniya checks it out, it as an eye opening line of thinking, and begins to lay down a possible road forward.

Roger Conner Jr
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

Engineer-Poet,

Glad to see your in on the little "mini forum" of Aniya and myself! I wish we could get a string like this going with a few more participants.

First, on your assertion "Please note that the "hydraulic hybrid" systems and other hybrids only achieve huge savings in very short stop-and-go cycles, such as garbage trucks moving from house to house." I agree completely, that in steady state over the road work, the value of hybrids is greatly limited and will not make create nearly as much efficiency as in stop start driving, but they are not completely valueless there. I will return to that in a moment, but let's stay on the stop start driving in which they are strongest:

It is interesting to look at some of the vehicles that engage in a great deal of stop and start type work: You mentioned gargage trucks. Newspaper and mail delivery vehicles are similiar in use pattern, as are school buses, particularly in city school systems. Of course, delivery trucks and vans, such as UPS and FedEx, and Shwann's food delivery trucks would benefit.
A HUGE potential market is in city buses and cabs. One can see the possibility of a compressed natural gas or propane hydraulic hybrid bus or mini van cab vehicle. Nationwide, the savings could be considerable, and what we are after is to punch holes in consumption, without disrupting the culture before we move to methods of dismantling the culture. This should lead to a curve downward on consumption of oil and gas while "prosperity" in something close to it's current definition remains.

Now, to electric hybrids over the road, and also "plug hybrids: I do not now have it at my fingertips, but Car&Driver Magazine did a fascinating road drive in one of the Lexus Electric hybrid SUV's some year ago, from the coast of California up into the Sierra Mountains and back, typical "outing to the vacation home in the mountains" sort of thing.

They were smitten, and surprised, and these are guys who have a history of hard driving, not "tree hugger" soft peddlers by any stretch.

First, the electric hybrid, unlike the hydraulic hybrid, allows for longer range storage of power, thus, it becomes an exercise in long range energy conversion and return mathematics. Any round trip, no matter the distance, will involve uphill and downhill driving. The trip into the mountains was a perfect example, in that most of the trip to the cabin in the hills was uphill. Needless to say, the hybrid effect was nil, and Car&Driver testers were disappointed by the mileage of the hybrid going to the cabin. There they discussed the trucks economy performance with a Toyota technician, who sagely told them not to judge the SUV until they had made the full trip. On the way, back, the SUV, now going downhill out of the mountains, returned the lost economy, and more, delivering on that leg of the trip an economy performance far above predicted by the EPA stats. But, it was simply returning the power stored in regenerative braking, and gaining what could not be gained on the way up. The economy of a well designed hybrid is very good in all conditions, but it is much more of a "life cycle" performance, not a one way trip performance. Continued measuring of the vehicles performance indicates true efficiency, not shown easily in a one time short distance measurement.

The promise of the plug hybrid is of course far greater. Batteries that can withstand continued cycle deep discharge and recharge are the only hold up.

If one can build an electric car that is 50 by 50, that is to say, 50 mile range at 50 miles per gallon, then the idea of a 50/50 hybrid is well within reach. Does anyone doubt that a 50/50 electric car can now be built? That is a VERY low level to have to achieve, many electrics have done more.

In my own case, I commute 42 miles round trip. A plug hybrid could give me all of that off of my house current, but I would need a bit of recharge due to the need for extra performance (i.e., over 50 miles per hour by a small margin for the road part of the trip) but then we must factor in the regenerative braking effect, which would contribute some range.

This is why the Chevy Volt created such a storm of interest. It IS the car the nation needs. It can run if there is a complete lack of fuel. It could deliver the range. It could deliver the performance. The design, as defined by GM is the CORRECT path, being an all around usable, real car that could revolutionize the economics of fuel consumption. It is an ELEGANT DESIGN.

But, then General Motors chickened out before they even began the game.
They started backing away. The batteries are not available. Of course, that story is so inane and ludicrious no one is buying it. The batteries are of course available. The discussion involves price points, and setting the consumer expectations as to how long the batteries should be warrentied.
The batteries now available will perform, and do a steller job, but for how many discharge cycles, how deep? The truth is the manufacturer of the battery, General Motors, and perhaps even the utility providing the power will have to be involved in protecting the consumer from a complete battery failure should that occur (they are possible) and will have to financially set the "break points". The government may be involved in incentive to all parties. Such is the complicated culture we now live in. GM and the battery makers are now trying to bleed the turnip, as we say in the south, to get every possible advantage from their efforts, and all the financial rewards it can deliver. There is no doubt the technology will work, you could build the drivetrain into a 1980 Chevette. What everyone involved is doing is trying to make it sound as difficult as possible in the effort to get more for doing it.

This is expected. But we must NOT let the larger picture get away from us. We must let GM and others know that we know what they are doing, and they, the battery manufacturers, the government, the customer and all interested parties must keep in mind that our national economy is at stake here. Declaring impossible what is easily seen to be possible is o.k., for a while, but others (possibly external international firms) are in the game too. If GM waits too long, they should expect no pity, no protection, and no bailout from the American people who they have had a history of dismissing.

To finish with your last point, "You're absolutely right about the standard of living issue; any claim that we must cut back and accept less leads to denial. This is why the "Sustainability" proposal is aimed at supplying 100% of current end-use energy requirements for transport and electric."

The difference between denial and acceptance is a thin one. I can tell an 82 year old man with both hips and knees already replaced that he should bicycle to the doctor, he just has to have WILL POWER! He is a baby, spoiled to expect to ride in a car! He is in "denial" he should accept less!

Of course, he is in reality, a reality that the young and vibrant don't like to see. In more primitive cultures, he would already be dead.

I work everyday with middle aged women, divorced or widowed, who are damm good at what they do, but what they do is rather narrow....office supervision, clerical work, office training in very narrow information based skills. The idea that they are going to become primitive farm wives at this late stage in life is "denial" of a high order. And these are not "rare" examples of how people live. They were educated for this from the age of high school, and there are tens upon tens of millions of them. They are the customers, the workers, the logistical backbone of a complex culture.

A collapse of the modern technical culture matters little in the thinking of these people and rightly so. There is ABSOLUTELY nothing they could do to survive it. It would be the same as if a meteor struck the Earth. There is simply NO possibility of many of these successful and hard working people making the type of change needed to survive. They, like myself due to the health issues mentioned above, must work for the advance of technology, the efficiency of a modern technical and advanced system is (and most average civilized people know this, it is why they dismiss the "primitive noble savage fantasies" out of hand) is what keeps them alive. If it ends, they end.

So many people misunderstood Dick Chaney's sentence in this regard. Hatred of the man caused people to dismiss the truth of his logic when he said "Our way of life is non-negotiable."

He was not throwing out a challenge. He was stating a fact. A great change or collapse forced upon the nations of the modern world is not negotiable, because it would death. I once heard a diplomat say "Just about anything can be negotiated, except one thing: My right to exist. If you set as your beginning non-negotiable term the position that I have no right to exist, then why would I negotiate? I'm a dead man if I do. I will fight to the death."

Make no mistake. What many call "powerdown" or the "collapse" or the "die off" or "life in the wilderness", or what some try to polity recast as "sustainability" will be fought to the dying breath. And why not? If the only option given by acceptance of the terms is death, then why not fight, and at least have a chance, or, at least die with dignity?

Toffler described this in 1980, in "The Third Wave", "the coming super struggle" he called it. And he knew then, what we know now: In the effort to survive, NO technical solution will be off the table.

What we have to work for, propagandize for, is "elegant technology", the kind that does far less harm than good, the kind that does not destroy humans and the biosphere, but includes it in the design, the kind that can be seen as beautiful in an aesthetic sense, and desirable by the citizens and customer.

We must reawaken the designers, the (to borrow your handle, pretty good...
the true "Engineer-Poets" :-)

Sorry to go so long, but to me this is the cutting edge, the fascination of the whole energy discussion. It all comes back to this: What kind of world do we want to live in? That is what will decide so much.

Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

Hi Roger,

Well, I hope Charles and Nate are no longer imagining we're addressing their article!

Roger, I like the fact you're talking about the lives of real people (in the U.S., for eg.).

I would try to introduce more "third alternatives" into the scenarios you describe. Yes, the middle-age women in offices, people who are in need of medications...at the same time, I'm not sure the choices are only between the present and one other imagined alternative.

re: "So many people misunderstood Dick Chaney's sentence in this regard. Hatred of the man caused people to dismiss the truth of his logic when he said "Our way of life is non-negotiable."

He was not throwing out a challenge. He was stating a fact. A great change or collapse forced upon the nations of the modern world is not negotiable, because it would death. I once heard a diplomat say "Just about anything can be negotiated, except one thing: My right to exist. If you set as your beginning non-negotiable term the position that I have no right to exist, then why would I negotiate? I'm a dead man if I do. I will fight to the death."

I see this as set in an either/or framework. Which limits the options, as far as I can tell.

I don't see it as being the case that the choices are so circumscribed. For example, if some of the women in offices, instead did sewing (which some may do as hobbies)...I don't know, I don't mean to introduce hypothetical examples.

It's just that a lot of preferences are based on a person's history, and those can change with exposure to something else.

It's not clear to me what defines the elements necessary for survival.

Example. Food. You know some basics...but it doesn't mean that the food supply (US) today is better quality or more plentiful than it was, say, 10 years ago, when there were fewer imports.

My ideal would be a new agricultural policy that rewards organic and sustainable farming, ditto with education for same, preserves ag land, no more ag land for development, etc.

How much can be changed?

You say a great change or collapse.

What about something less than this?

Because it looks like we do, in fact, get collapse, if we don't make some changes.

And the current system has biases (subsidies, tax policies, etc.) that do encourage a direction toward collapse.

So, it seems there's some room for switching. While we can.

Anyway, I'll stop. There's a new study out on chocolate and blood pressure. (It looks to me like the type and severity is not a question, though I haven't read the original.)