206 comments on DrumBeat: April 11, 2007
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206 comments on DrumBeat: April 11, 2007
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Most Americans See Recession in the Next 12 Months (Update1)
By Matthew Benjamin
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aSdcDWuOmdiI&refer=home
The Great Go-Goop War
By Tom Chalkley (In homage, and with apology, to the late Theodore Geisel)
Part I is poorly formatted. Part II is also poorly formatted but includes links to page one, page two etc., which recreates the paper page layout. Part III bites the bullet and limits the artwork to the paper page links.
http://www.citypaper.com/news/story.asp?id=3347
http://www.citypaper.com/news/story.asp?id=7354
http://www.citypaper.com/news/story.asp?id=13474
Also, there seems to be a climate change event this weekend:
http://stepitup2007.org/
The poll shows expectations for a recession, but the betters at Intrade.com don't see it:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?...
Odds are only 17% for a recession before the end of 2007. People who care enough about the issue to put money down are apparently more optimistic than random phone-answerers.
Have these traders ever correctly anticipated a recession?
Prediction markets are fairly new and weren't in use before the last US recession. They do seem to have had a good record in predicting other things.
On the other hand, the "majority of US population" had never been shown statistically to be better than flipping a coin. The consensus at TOD has been imminent recession ever since I started following the discussion two years ago.