206 comments on DrumBeat: April 11, 2007
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206 comments on DrumBeat: April 11, 2007
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The poll shows expectations for a recession, but the betters at Intrade.com don't see it:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?...
Odds are only 17% for a recession before the end of 2007. People who care enough about the issue to put money down are apparently more optimistic than random phone-answerers.
Have these traders ever correctly anticipated a recession?
Prediction markets are fairly new and weren't in use before the last US recession. They do seem to have had a good record in predicting other things.
On the other hand, the "majority of US population" had never been shown statistically to be better than flipping a coin. The consensus at TOD has been imminent recession ever since I started following the discussion two years ago.