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206 comments on DrumBeat: April 11, 2007

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Halfin on April 11, 2007 - 5:05pm

The poll shows expectations for a recession, but the betters at Intrade.com don't see it:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?...

Odds are only 17% for a recession before the end of 2007. People who care enough about the issue to put money down are apparently more optimistic than random phone-answerers.

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Donal on April 11, 2007 - 6:37pm

Have these traders ever correctly anticipated a recession?

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Jack on April 12, 2007 - 12:23am

Prediction markets are fairly new and weren't in use before the last US recession. They do seem to have had a good record in predicting other things.

On the other hand, the "majority of US population" had never been shown statistically to be better than flipping a coin. The consensus at TOD has been imminent recession ever since I started following the discussion two years ago.

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