Prediction markets are fairly new and weren't in use before the last US recession. They do seem to have had a good record in predicting other things.
On the other hand, the "majority of US population" had never been shown statistically to be better than flipping a coin. The consensus at TOD has been imminent recession ever since I started following the discussion two years ago.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
The contents below are paid advertisements. Their appearance does not imply an endorsement by The Oil Drum.
-->
“Most people spend more time and energy going around problems than in trying to solve them.”
k Nation (Jim Kunstler)
GAIA Host Collective
Have these traders ever correctly anticipated a recession?
Prediction markets are fairly new and weren't in use before the last US recession. They do seem to have had a good record in predicting other things.
On the other hand, the "majority of US population" had never been shown statistically to be better than flipping a coin. The consensus at TOD has been imminent recession ever since I started following the discussion two years ago.