<The Case for Inflation from a Plateauing Supply The Oil Drum DrumBeat: April 13, 2007>

119 comments on Jeremy Gilbert's Comments on TOD Saudi Analysis

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 8:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Thank you very much Mr. Gilbert.

Back to the Data.

Whilst you'll was arguing about how well ol Dolly would survive PO, FF was burnin the midnight erl crouchin ov'r the digit-tizing tablet with good ol' SPE 93439er (which don't hav nuthin cordin to much expurts) and doin massive linaer interp'lations with his 386 deep in the Holler.

Alan from big easy is lookin for a step change in water cut

Jeepers- gander at that 33% production drop pert near good ol 98. Oil prices????

Devil -lopin......

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Dragonfly41 on April 13, 2007 - 9:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

F_Flow...just to state what I am assuming is obvious here...

Blue = water
Green = oil

Correct?

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 9:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yep. Standurd Erl Bidness Colours.

Hundruds of Thousands of Barr'ls Pur Day

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garyp on April 13, 2007 - 9:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Excuse me for being dense, but isn't this just an extract from fig 1 of that doc? I'm missing where we know the production drop is due to something other than artifical contraint?

OPEC quota increases 10% 2.5m Jan 1 1998
quota cuts 1.25m Apr 1 1998
quota cuts 1.335m July 1 1998

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 9:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Garyp-

Where I come from we don't have no valve that can turn off the oil and keep the water a comin.

FF

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 9:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

but mother nature has a valve that does the opposite.

FF

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garyp on April 13, 2007 - 9:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes, but at least in fig 1 the blue line is the water cut %age. Turn down the flow from a few typical wells and you would expect the %age to stay that same (assuming you can turn down the flow, I expect that's the case).

Just playing devils advocate, it is very similar to the time when oil prices went into a downward spiral...

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TJ on April 13, 2007 - 11:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

If you're turning off high water cut wells to rest them, the water should come down too, right?

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 9:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Your next question- Oil Production for Total Wet Dry
Emailing you my data- verify it is to your liking
FF

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garyp on April 13, 2007 - 10:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

OK, if I get this right you've reversed the ratio data towards the back of the doc (fig 10?) to generate kbpd from wet and dry areas, given the total production figures?

The figures tend to show a significant event in mid 1992 that increased the %age of oil produced from 'wet' areas, but without changing the water cut %age rate of change significantly.

In mid 1993 action was taken which stabalised the water cut %age somewhat, but didn't change the %age of oil that came from 'wet' areas.

In mid 1998 the %age of 'wet' area decreased sharply, back to its pre 1993 level, as the total production decreased. %age water cut took a small step change from here to 2000.

The %age of dry oil has been gradually increasing since then.

OK, so what does it mean?

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 11:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Dr. Husseini

Buried in the text down the page

"If this commitment to prudence is adhered to in the future,

the risks of reservoir damages will be minimized. On the other

hand, if cost cutting strategies and high risk production

practices are allowed to prevail, the consequences can be both

devastating and sudden. Examples of such ill considered

strategies might be an early shift to in-field water injection

patterns, a shift to dry crestal production strategies away

from wet flank areas, and the heavy dependence on artificial

lift without an adequate number of wells to tap into the

various complex reservoir zonations."

http://www.saudi-american-forum.org/Newsletters2004/SAF_Item_Of_Interest...

Look at the previously debated xsections. THe water saturations are 65% when the residual oil saturation is 21%, the theoretical end point water saturation is 79%. To take the post breakthrough water saturation as high as you can ... is where the potential lies.

The crash of this 200kbopd around 1998 might have been caused by shutting in the best oil cut wells in the wet area... only 20,000 bwpd was lost. But why did the dry oil area production increase at the end of this drop and continue on an upward trend ????.... Possibly answer- the oil was needed to supply world markets.

You are trying to post peak model- what happens when the degree of freedom to pull the dry area is gone??

FF

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garyp on April 13, 2007 - 11:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

OK, try this on for size.

1991-1992 the waterfront nears a set of vertical wells, all along a isofront. As it does so the watercut increases.

1992 the waterfront nominally hits those vertical wells, converting them to nominal 'wet'. However you can still produce at about the same level without too many issues.

1997 production begins to drop off.

1998 you take significant action, cutting off some high water cut wells, drilling new infill higher up the slope to increase the number of dry wells. Overall the water cut situation continues to get worse (why?).

1998-1999 you stabalise the production figures.

1999-2005 you continue to drill new wells, possibly vertical to horizontal sidetrack conversion, probably MRC to keep the water cut and production to a figure.

I'm not convinced it explains the shape.

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 11:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

1998 you take significant action, cutting off some high water cut wells, drilling new infill higher up the slope to increase the number of dry wells. Overall the water cut situation continues to get worse (why?).

I cannot see any high water cut wells being shutin on the water produced.

1998- You sit around in meetings all day and discuss "where is it going to bottom" .... where can we make up this production... "we have to start producing the crest " Is it not interesting that there was no where else to turn but to violate the "prime directive" in the most mature field.

... this period is not defined by action, but by inaction.

You are right to see dry oil wells being assimilated by the Borg of the wet area... it had to happen on that WOR vs. cumulative oil that you have.... look at the production logs in 93439.... I did an exponential fit of the WOR versus cumulative but that includes the influence of absorbing those good dry oil wells..... if that field has no more dry area (which was the point of the last 3 weeks discussion) Where are we now???

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garyp on April 13, 2007 - 12:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

1998 has to see either new dry wells, or wells reclassified as dry after sidetrack drilling - how else can dry area production increase.

However the water cut rate of change increase doesn't tie in with that.

Are you sure you've comparing apples with apples? Where did the water cut %age come from? Its not measuring the physical geology rather than the well classification is it - they would be two different things and might explain things, a little.

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 12:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

open a choke???

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Korg on April 13, 2007 - 2:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

C'mon guys....Fractional Flow just gave you the proof of the looming catastrophe on a silver platter. He might be the next deep throat. Look what he found that Mr Hussieni said:

"if cost cutting strategies and high risk production

practices are allowed to prevail, the consequences can be both

devastating and sudden. Examples of such ill considered

strategies might be an early shift to in-field water injection

patterns, a shift to dry crestal production strategies away

from wet flank areas..."

DRY CRESTAL PRODUCTION!
That's what they've been doing the past few yrs and FF's data shows that.

So they are doinng the worst possible thing the last 3 yrs!!!

Desperation.

They are drilling the crests, opening up every well they have and just plain producing flat out to try to keep production up. In the VERY near future the whole thing will collapse. Maybe by the end of the year...

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Dragonfly41 on April 13, 2007 - 8:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So...if this is true...back there in 2000-1 timeframe...KSA and BushCo "probably" knew there was going to be a problem with Ghawar...SOON...meaning 3-4 yrs. down the line?

Just trying to piece together my conspiracy theories.

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119 comments on Jeremy Gilbert's Comments on TOD Saudi Analysis

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