<The Case for Inflation from a Plateauing Supply The Oil Drum DrumBeat: April 13, 2007>

119 comments on Jeremy Gilbert's Comments on TOD Saudi Analysis

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 11:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

1998 you take significant action, cutting off some high water cut wells, drilling new infill higher up the slope to increase the number of dry wells. Overall the water cut situation continues to get worse (why?).

I cannot see any high water cut wells being shutin on the water produced.

1998- You sit around in meetings all day and discuss "where is it going to bottom" .... where can we make up this production... "we have to start producing the crest " Is it not interesting that there was no where else to turn but to violate the "prime directive" in the most mature field.

... this period is not defined by action, but by inaction.

You are right to see dry oil wells being assimilated by the Borg of the wet area... it had to happen on that WOR vs. cumulative oil that you have.... look at the production logs in 93439.... I did an exponential fit of the WOR versus cumulative but that includes the influence of absorbing those good dry oil wells..... if that field has no more dry area (which was the point of the last 3 weeks discussion) Where are we now???

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garyp on April 13, 2007 - 12:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

1998 has to see either new dry wells, or wells reclassified as dry after sidetrack drilling - how else can dry area production increase.

However the water cut rate of change increase doesn't tie in with that.

Are you sure you've comparing apples with apples? Where did the water cut %age come from? Its not measuring the physical geology rather than the well classification is it - they would be two different things and might explain things, a little.

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Fractional_Flow on April 13, 2007 - 12:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

open a choke???

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Korg on April 13, 2007 - 2:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

C'mon guys....Fractional Flow just gave you the proof of the looming catastrophe on a silver platter. He might be the next deep throat. Look what he found that Mr Hussieni said:

"if cost cutting strategies and high risk production

practices are allowed to prevail, the consequences can be both

devastating and sudden. Examples of such ill considered

strategies might be an early shift to in-field water injection

patterns, a shift to dry crestal production strategies away

from wet flank areas..."

DRY CRESTAL PRODUCTION!
That's what they've been doing the past few yrs and FF's data shows that.

So they are doinng the worst possible thing the last 3 yrs!!!

Desperation.

They are drilling the crests, opening up every well they have and just plain producing flat out to try to keep production up. In the VERY near future the whole thing will collapse. Maybe by the end of the year...

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Dragonfly41 on April 13, 2007 - 8:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

So...if this is true...back there in 2000-1 timeframe...KSA and BushCo "probably" knew there was going to be a problem with Ghawar...SOON...meaning 3-4 yrs. down the line?

Just trying to piece together my conspiracy theories.

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119 comments on Jeremy Gilbert's Comments on TOD Saudi Analysis

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