55 comments on Soliciting Questions for the API Conference Call on Energy Issues
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The annual cost of drilling for North American natural gas has escalated from $4 billion/year to $40 billion/year in the last decade, yet production has dropped slightly. One "rule of thumb" is that the # of active rigs has to increase by 10% each and every year in order to keep NA NG production stable.
The drilling industry is showing signs of stress and limitations after the recent expansion. In how many years will we not be able to expand drilling by another compounded 10% and NA NG production will start to fall significantly ?
Best Hopes for Realistic Planning,
Alan
This year. I follow drillings stats pretty closely and we are not going to expand 10% this year.
Robert since you reading this.Have you seen this?
http://oakhavenpc.org/cultivating_algae.htm
Has this been evaluated on TOD or elsewhere?
This is the first thing I do not feel despondent about since becoming peak oil aware a few years back.
TIA,
There has been an extensive review of De Beers Fuels and Infiniti brand algea biofuel companies by a South African watchdog group.
http://biopact.com/2007/04/algae-biofuel-companys-claims.html
Tyan in Seattle
Thank you!
http://algae-thermodynamics.blogspot.com/index.html
goto 21st march 07 entry
Here is something I found for you!
The only company making these promises is apparently promising to break the laws of thermodynamics.
Dr. Krassen Dimitrov is amazing at using some hard core calculations about energy. He might be a great addition if he decided to contribute to TOD. Somebody should invite him. Take the time to look at his work on the De Beer;s algae claims.
Nice look at the actual numbers.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
In the same vein, how can tar sand deposits be a solution to anything if NG is required to process it.
The tar sands people are planning on putting in a facility to turn the processed output of the sands to gas, which will supply the heating nessisary for more extraction.
scuse me as i go look for a link.
Any of the following (unless they are FAQs).
What do you consider the best & worst estimates for:
- water needs (as in gallons or liters of water / barrel of oil produced)
- energy needs (as Joule of input / barrel of oil produced)
- environmental damage (as in ground displacement, topsoil removal, groundwater contamination risk or whatever factors come into play)
for North American (e.g. Alberta) oil sands projects?
What do you see as significant barriers to large scale production from these resources?
What are the most optimistic projections for practical maximum production (barrels of oil/day) in future using current known tech?
When do you foresee production from oil sands scaling up to significant numbers (i.e. what year/time span or price level)?
How different is energy from low entropy? They are clearly related, in that energy is required to maintain the order. A healthy environment embodies more energy than a depleted one (waste?). If our economy is measured by the energy it uses, then won't our attempts to increase that directly decrease environmental quality? If we look at a silo over there of fossil sources and another silo elsewhere of water quality, the connection will be obscured.
If we burned 10% of all fossil energy during GWB's first term and are on track to do the same during his second, then I'm not even sure there IS a sane question to ask about how our energy use will degrade the environment. This is a variant on the gray goo meets ultimate heat death of planet problem, isn't it?
Yeah, what about my 401K?
cfm in Gray, ME
SamuM, you will find answers to most of your questions in the Canadian National Energy Board document Canada's Oil Sands - Opportunities and Challenges to 2015: An Update, accessible from this page.
On a related natural gas question: The NPC (National Petroleum Council) report "Balanced Options" in 2003 said that the U.S. would face a natural gas shortfall and have to import LNG at a rapidly growing pace, even if we opened up all moratoria areas in the U.S. to natural gas drilling. This would include the Western Rockies and the OCS (Outer Continental Shelf) being opened for drilling.
(a) If we are really in such a dire position on natural gas need, what are the chances that these areas will be opened up for at least exploratory and then possibly production drilling? What do see the environmental issues to be and is it worth the risk?
(b) Is even discussing the issue of natural gas drilling in these areas politically acceptable, or is it "a third rail" that politicians won't touch, no matter what shape we aer in on natural gas supply
(c) Given the resistance to LNG handling facilities almost anywhere they are considered to be placed, what are the odds of building enough LNG handling and offloading facilities in time to provide needed natural gas imports?
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Do the members of the API have bugout plans and if so would they mind sharing them the peasants?
Do members of the API foresee catastrophic events, including the distinct possibility of the collapse of the global economy? In other words, do members have a sense of the severity of consequences of "peak oil", "peak natural gas (regionally)" and the current and projected use of coal, along with the decline of other resources - consequences for the "survival of human civilization"?
If so, do they feel empowered to act - to take a stance as a group? If so, what is that stance?
How do they, as individuals, deal with the implications of what looks to be on the immediate horizon?
Reformulate the question (if you chose). After the same intro on $4 to $40 billion; What price range of natural gas would be required in, say 5 years, to support 60% more rigs drilling for natural gas ? (Adjusting for increasing unit costs, labor shortages, etc.) 60% more rigs appear to be needed to support level NA natural gas production.
1.1^5 = 1.61
Best Hopes,
Alan