Nice work, I'd love to see your final "adding the squares" number plot - and see how it compares to mine!
Three points:
1) Ghawar is 180miles tip of Fazran to tip of Haradh. Its Fazran that makes for the problem, where you assume this to finish makes the difference in length. 170miles is also justifiable with different assumptions. Some question marks about the extent of Shedgum as well.
2) I wouldn't use that Fig 6 for anything. The original resolution is too low to draw conclusions. Other data suggests more interesting effects.
[Edit: Here's an alternate well overlay map of the same vintage to play with]
3) From what I've seen Uthmaniyah is anything but smooth sailing - I think you may overestimate the recoverable numbers unless that is taken into account.
Maybe I will have to finish the work I was doing...
First--Kudos to Euan for all the work resulting in this impressive and highly-detailed keypost! I DUGGIT.
GaryP: Link for well graph detail? Or else, please email to SS, Euan, and F_F. I think it shows the Shedgum leak area quite "white" by the absence of black dots. Also interesting is the black dot crestal difference between North and South Ain Dar. In this graph: the Shedgum-Uthmaniyah connection ridge is much more drilled than I expected [perhaps now totally watered out?].
Also, the "white" area in SE Uthmaniyah [western flank of Eastside crestal ridge] is the highly problematic and erratic reservoir sweep area that has been detailed previously in earlier SPE papers and Voelker's Motherlode PDF. I suggest that this area is generally shut-in or sporadic extraction as Aramco is trying to carefully detail DFNs in this area for more efficient sweep strategies to optimize economic extraction and minimization of watercuts. See MORABT and flux chart in Voelker PDF for more explanation: page 76, frame 106.
Hawiyah: see page 113, frame 143 of Voelker PDF. If this detail of problematic Super-k distribution and DFNs could be obtained for all of Ghawar--we could make much progess in our analysis. My amateur WAG would be that Ghawar volumetric sweep may have to be derated by 10% because the economic limitations imposed by geologic problems from DFNs, Super-k, fines and tarmat migration, over-pressurized injectors, gas cap formation, and the nearly constant well work-overs to minimize watercuts, along with other problems, will limit production rates and the decline tail going forward. But more detailed assessment I will leave to the TopTODers.
Consider the work required to just generate the maps of page 96,97, frame 126,127 to make future extraction decisions! The Law of Ever Receding Horizons is rapidly coming into play for Ghawar's subfields.
I'm getting closer to having the data quality I want, but other stuff takes the time. This is an extract from a PDF, I've forgetten which one. Hopefully will have this tranche of work done by the end of the weekend.
Shedgum-Uthmaniyah connection is productive, or was, but is at a comparible level of depletion to South Ain Dar.
Thxs for responding. I hope you and the other TopTODers will carefully evaluate North Uthmaniyah [UTMN] with the Voelker PDF page 90, frame 120, in your analysis. IMO, this injector to producer analysis covering over 9,300 ft in roughly 4,000 days right in the heart of N. UTMN does not bode well for the rest of Ghawar. This area of Ghawar should theoretically have the lowest occurence of super-k and DFNs because it is a non-crestal area less prone to tectonic fracture forces.
If I understand the UTMN graphic correctly [left to right Saturation graphical series]:
1. [No fault] Waterfront override predominates the sweep in non-DFN and non-super k gridded blocks. Higher permeability in the upper layers at the detriment of lower porosity/perm in the lower layers largely prevents uniform 'piston sweep' of the payzone layers.
2. [Middle of Blocks] Water quickly seeks the interlayer high perm zones as primary conduits. Zonal thieving may be just as important to optimal sweep efficiencies as gravity drive because of these multi-layers.
3. [Next to Fault] IMO, this clearly shows non-ideal sweep phase separation or non vertical 'piston sweep' due to multilayer differentials, not ideal gravity drive.
4. [Fault Plane] Here the well data seems to illustrate ideal vertical sweep, but as has been previously seen in the earlier graphics-- this amalgamation with data interference caused by the fault or DFN distortion paints a false picture of what really occurred from across the injector to producer distance.
It suggests that Aramco will need to do a lot of down-dip studies to best identify lower perm payzone pockets that were bypassed, then carefully install horizontals or downbore pumps to best extract these payzones at low watercuts. If one considers that they might have been misreading some or much of the reservoir sweep data for thirty or more years because of super-k and DFNs: is it any wonder that Aramco is now struggling with high watercuts and declining production?
I hope the TopTODers can cut my WAG to pieces, for all our sakes. Have at it, Gentlemen. Thxs for any reply.
I done some googling on Fracture Networks that might simplify one's understanding of the problems it presents to optimal reservoir extraction. Hopefully, it will aid in your understanding of Voelker's Motherlode PDF and his voluminous detail on Ghawar Super-k & DFNs.
Are you ready for a 3D fly-thru of Ghawar?
Bring your imagination!
The first link is a supercluster rotational animation of a simulated fracture network in a material. Now use your imagination: picture a 3d graphic of Ghawar spinning slowly instead, and each color spot or squiggle represents a bypassed pocket of oil that can be tapped if it can be identified by Aramco supercomputer simulation [easier said than done]. Imagine this cube being stretched to approx. 170 miles long, 20 miles wide, and 200 ft thick! Each one of those squiggles could represent a supertanker VLCC if they could be tapped precisely. At Ghawar's current advanced age: If the well misses the squiggle target from incomplete or bad data --> then you get a hell of a lot of water instead.
The red layer [nearer the bottom of the cube] could be analagous to the bottom layer of Arab Zone D with lower permeability/porosity-->here, as Voelker suggested, horizontal wells will be more effective in sweeping thru this geo-interlayer.
Maybe SS, Euan, and F_F would think it more accurate if you mentally flipped this rotating cube: then the red layer cluster would represent the topmost crestal dry oil in the previously discussed waterflood geo-slices.
Again, if you mentally transpose the Shedgum leak area into vertical faulting as illustrated by this simulation--> then you can understand why Aramco doesn't want to just pump water from this area.
Here are some more links with good illustrations to further aid amateur understanding:
My amateur WAG would be that Ghawar volumetric sweep may have to be derated by 10% because the economic limitations imposed by geologic problems from DFNs, Super-k, fines and tarmat migration, over-pressurized injectors, gas cap formation, and the nearly constant well work-overs to minimize watercuts, along with other problems, will limit production rates and the decline tail going forward.
Bob - first of all thank you for all the Sterling work digging up all the information on Ghawar. You may be interested to know that WAG stands for Water alternating Gas injection - the Snorre Field in Norway is one well known example.
So what does DFN mean - had a quick look at Voelker who seems to like the term.
In my Base case model I have used 80% sweep efficiency and in the high case 95% sweep efficiency - I'm not sure what Aramco use here, but I am now using higher recovery factors than Aramco in the High Case and lower recovery factors in the Low Case. I suspect de-rating sweep by 10% across the whole field is a bit extreme - but certainly in some areas sweep may be significntly less efficient.
One thing to bear in mind is that most oil fields will have production problems of one sort or another. Ghawar may appear to have more than most, but this in part is related to its immense size. I think a lot of these problems may be managed - especially since this is on shore and shallow drilling, and the well spacing is still massive compared to other onshore fields.
IMO, the main issue with the Super K problems etc is simply handling the water production. The oil will be recovered ultimately, but managing water production may determine the rate - both in Uthmaiyah but also in Ain Dar.
Voelker Motherlode PDF page 1, frame 31:
---------------------------------------------
We hypothesize that super-k systems that are laterally extensive, for example those systems of greatest interest that enable premature breakthrough of injection water to adjacent producers, often in well spacing exceeding 1 km, are comprised predominantly of one or more discrete fracture networks, combined with a localized, thin,
high-permeability facies generally providing connections to the wells. An analysis of super-k mechanics, Chapter 6, shows the discrete fracture model to be plausible, and
in fact, likely.
-----------------------------------------------
My use of WAG = Wild Ass Guess, because I know my limitations-- I wouldn't stand a technical chance of doing a true Ghawar reservoir evaluation because I don't have the skills and experience compared to someone like you or F_F.
My hope is that you and the other TopTODers, using dated info with clever analysis, can generate a fairly accurate SWAG to get Aramco to become more transparent as Simmons suggests.
From the Motherlode PDF page 74, frame 104:
------------------------------------------------
The opposite extreme occurs if the intervals are laterally extensive such that both production and injection wells are intersected by them, or if one or more DFNs intersect the intervals at such an orientation as to facilitate the flow of injection water to the interval. The first condition has not been verified in the literature, and in fact
contradicts the prevailing facies distribution model for the Arab-D (Chapter 4).
The second condition, however, may be prevalent. The existence of faults and discrete fracture systems have been confirmed throughout the field.[5] Furthermore, the high conductivity of these systems has been accepted as prevalent,[1],[52],[46],[51] and the orientation of the fracture systems, although becoming better defined with seismic studies currently being conducted over much of the field, may be practically irrelevant, as coning within a DFN has been demonstrated, as cited in the previous section.
Thus, under this condition, a DFN of any orientation, and any appreciable length, for that matter, that has a sufficient vertical thickness to connect a permeable interval intersected by a well, to a region of high water fractional flow, located at a greater depth, may contribute to high water cut at the well.
Thus, the existence of DFNs in the Arab-D favors, and may in fact determine completely, the detrimental effects of
the high permeability intervals.
Note that we have adopted, in the title of this section, the traditional parlance for super-k, as describing only the thin, permeable interval. It must be made clear that
our model of super-k consists of the combination, thin conductive interval and DFN.
Therefore, under our definition, it is concluded definitely that super-k is bad: under waterflood conditions, DFNs provide conduits for water flow, and the conductive
intervals provide connections from DFNs to producing wells.
Al-Ajmi, et al.[54] presented the results of a study of well productivity for 450 wells (over half of the total) in the Uthmaniyah Sector, that clarifies which of the
two classes of wells, those favorably disposed to thin, conductive intervals, and those rendered non-productive by them, prevails.
----------------------------------------
To me, this is very compelling reading: how much worse has DFN coning gotten in the intervening years? There is probably no way to cost-effectively minimize for this geologic effect. Aramco probably has to accept ever-increasing watercuts and declining production.
DFNs and super-k was ideal in the early stages before the application of waterflooding; it allowed very high, dry oil barrels/well. Now the opposite effect is occurring: the easy waterflood flow through DFNs is inhibiting effective and economic sweep efficiencies from the low porosity/permability payrock.
Please see the cubes at Voelker Motherlode PDF pages 459- 461, frames 489-491: Wouldn't you love to 3D fly-thru these blocks trying to best determine injection, drilling, and water-handling decisions?
From the little information Euan presented it seems to me that you folks are simply comparing charts produced using different cartographic projections.
Especially the insider one that has 180 mi N to S seems to have been produced using a non equal-area projection, making it useless for area readings.
GaryP - I've tried fitting your map to Croft's and am sorry to say that your map seems to be bent.
Kind of strange - it took about 2 mnutes to fit the wells map from Volker's thesis, but this one just won't fit at all.
Luis de Sousa has been reminding us about map projections and scaling, so this is clearly one further variable / uncertainty that needs to be taken into account.
Euan,
Nice work, I'd love to see your final "adding the squares" number plot - and see how it compares to mine!
Three points:
1) Ghawar is 180miles tip of Fazran to tip of Haradh. Its Fazran that makes for the problem, where you assume this to finish makes the difference in length. 170miles is also justifiable with different assumptions. Some question marks about the extent of Shedgum as well.
2) I wouldn't use that Fig 6 for anything. The original resolution is too low to draw conclusions. Other data suggests more interesting effects.

[Edit: Here's an alternate well overlay map of the same vintage to play with]
3) From what I've seen Uthmaniyah is anything but smooth sailing - I think you may overestimate the recoverable numbers unless that is taken into account.
Maybe I will have to finish the work I was doing...
Hello Euan & GaryP,
First--Kudos to Euan for all the work resulting in this impressive and highly-detailed keypost! I DUGGIT.
GaryP: Link for well graph detail? Or else, please email to SS, Euan, and F_F. I think it shows the Shedgum leak area quite "white" by the absence of black dots. Also interesting is the black dot crestal difference between North and South Ain Dar. In this graph: the Shedgum-Uthmaniyah connection ridge is much more drilled than I expected [perhaps now totally watered out?].
Also, the "white" area in SE Uthmaniyah [western flank of Eastside crestal ridge] is the highly problematic and erratic reservoir sweep area that has been detailed previously in earlier SPE papers and Voelker's Motherlode PDF. I suggest that this area is generally shut-in or sporadic extraction as Aramco is trying to carefully detail DFNs in this area for more efficient sweep strategies to optimize economic extraction and minimization of watercuts. See MORABT and flux chart in Voelker PDF for more explanation: page 76, frame 106.
Hawiyah: see page 113, frame 143 of Voelker PDF. If this detail of problematic Super-k distribution and DFNs could be obtained for all of Ghawar--we could make much progess in our analysis. My amateur WAG would be that Ghawar volumetric sweep may have to be derated by 10% because the economic limitations imposed by geologic problems from DFNs, Super-k, fines and tarmat migration, over-pressurized injectors, gas cap formation, and the nearly constant well work-overs to minimize watercuts, along with other problems, will limit production rates and the decline tail going forward. But more detailed assessment I will leave to the TopTODers.
Consider the work required to just generate the maps of page 96,97, frame 126,127 to make future extraction decisions! The Law of Ever Receding Horizons is rapidly coming into play for Ghawar's subfields.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I'm getting closer to having the data quality I want, but other stuff takes the time. This is an extract from a PDF, I've forgetten which one. Hopefully will have this tranche of work done by the end of the weekend.
Shedgum-Uthmaniyah connection is productive, or was, but is at a comparible level of depletion to South Ain Dar.
Hello GaryP,
Thxs for responding. I hope you and the other TopTODers will carefully evaluate North Uthmaniyah [UTMN] with the Voelker PDF page 90, frame 120, in your analysis. IMO, this injector to producer analysis covering over 9,300 ft in roughly 4,000 days right in the heart of N. UTMN does not bode well for the rest of Ghawar. This area of Ghawar should theoretically have the lowest occurence of super-k and DFNs because it is a non-crestal area less prone to tectonic fracture forces.
If I understand the UTMN graphic correctly [left to right Saturation graphical series]:
1. [No fault] Waterfront override predominates the sweep in non-DFN and non-super k gridded blocks. Higher permeability in the upper layers at the detriment of lower porosity/perm in the lower layers largely prevents uniform 'piston sweep' of the payzone layers.
2. [Middle of Blocks] Water quickly seeks the interlayer high perm zones as primary conduits. Zonal thieving may be just as important to optimal sweep efficiencies as gravity drive because of these multi-layers.
3. [Next to Fault] IMO, this clearly shows non-ideal sweep phase separation or non vertical 'piston sweep' due to multilayer differentials, not ideal gravity drive.
4. [Fault Plane] Here the well data seems to illustrate ideal vertical sweep, but as has been previously seen in the earlier graphics-- this amalgamation with data interference caused by the fault or DFN distortion paints a false picture of what really occurred from across the injector to producer distance.
It suggests that Aramco will need to do a lot of down-dip studies to best identify lower perm payzone pockets that were bypassed, then carefully install horizontals or downbore pumps to best extract these payzones at low watercuts. If one considers that they might have been misreading some or much of the reservoir sweep data for thirty or more years because of super-k and DFNs: is it any wonder that Aramco is now struggling with high watercuts and declining production?
I hope the TopTODers can cut my WAG to pieces, for all our sakes. Have at it, Gentlemen. Thxs for any reply.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hello TODers,
I done some googling on Fracture Networks that might simplify one's understanding of the problems it presents to optimal reservoir extraction. Hopefully, it will aid in your understanding of Voelker's Motherlode PDF and his voluminous detail on Ghawar Super-k & DFNs.
Are you ready for a 3D fly-thru of Ghawar?
Bring your imagination!
The first link is a supercluster rotational animation of a simulated fracture network in a material. Now use your imagination: picture a 3d graphic of Ghawar spinning slowly instead, and each color spot or squiggle represents a bypassed pocket of oil that can be tapped if it can be identified by Aramco supercomputer simulation [easier said than done]. Imagine this cube being stretched to approx. 170 miles long, 20 miles wide, and 200 ft thick! Each one of those squiggles could represent a supertanker VLCC if they could be tapped precisely. At Ghawar's current advanced age: If the well misses the squiggle target from incomplete or bad data --> then you get a hell of a lot of water instead.
http://www.csm.ornl.gov/images/clusters.gif
The red layer [nearer the bottom of the cube] could be analagous to the bottom layer of Arab Zone D with lower permeability/porosity-->here, as Voelker suggested, horizontal wells will be more effective in sweeping thru this geo-interlayer.
Maybe SS, Euan, and F_F would think it more accurate if you mentally flipped this rotating cube: then the red layer cluster would represent the topmost crestal dry oil in the previously discussed waterflood geo-slices.
The toplink was taken from this source:
http://www.csm.ornl.gov/archive/HL06.html
Here is another rotating simulation showing vertical and horizontal faulting:
http://www.sandia.gov/geostats/flow_model.htm
taken from this source:
http://www.sandia.gov/geostats/site_char_jnc.htm
Again, if you mentally transpose the Shedgum leak area into vertical faulting as illustrated by this simulation--> then you can understand why Aramco doesn't want to just pump water from this area.
Here are some more links with good illustrations to further aid amateur understanding:
http://www.veritasdgc.com/bins/content_page.asp?cid=5-946-2642
http://www.badleys.co.uk/products/pdf/FaultED.pdf
Use the PDF zoom tool to look at the pictures in greater detail.
Hope this helps bring people up to speed so that they have a greater understanding of what the TopTODers are writing about. Cheers!
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob - first of all thank you for all the Sterling work digging up all the information on Ghawar. You may be interested to know that WAG stands for Water alternating Gas injection - the Snorre Field in Norway is one well known example.
So what does DFN mean - had a quick look at Voelker who seems to like the term.
In my Base case model I have used 80% sweep efficiency and in the high case 95% sweep efficiency - I'm not sure what Aramco use here, but I am now using higher recovery factors than Aramco in the High Case and lower recovery factors in the Low Case. I suspect de-rating sweep by 10% across the whole field is a bit extreme - but certainly in some areas sweep may be significntly less efficient.
One thing to bear in mind is that most oil fields will have production problems of one sort or another. Ghawar may appear to have more than most, but this in part is related to its immense size. I think a lot of these problems may be managed - especially since this is on shore and shallow drilling, and the well spacing is still massive compared to other onshore fields.
IMO, the main issue with the Super K problems etc is simply handling the water production. The oil will be recovered ultimately, but managing water production may determine the rate - both in Uthmaiyah but also in Ain Dar.
Hello Euan,
DFNs = Discrete Fracture Networks
Voelker Motherlode PDF page 1, frame 31:
---------------------------------------------
We hypothesize that super-k systems that are laterally extensive, for example those systems of greatest interest that enable premature breakthrough of injection water to adjacent producers, often in well spacing exceeding 1 km, are comprised predominantly of one or more discrete fracture networks, combined with a localized, thin,
high-permeability facies generally providing connections to the wells. An analysis of super-k mechanics, Chapter 6, shows the discrete fracture model to be plausible, and
in fact, likely.
-----------------------------------------------
My use of WAG = Wild Ass Guess, because I know my limitations-- I wouldn't stand a technical chance of doing a true Ghawar reservoir evaluation because I don't have the skills and experience compared to someone like you or F_F.
My hope is that you and the other TopTODers, using dated info with clever analysis, can generate a fairly accurate SWAG to get Aramco to become more transparent as Simmons suggests.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hello TODers,
From the Motherlode PDF page 74, frame 104:
------------------------------------------------
The opposite extreme occurs if the intervals are laterally extensive such that both production and injection wells are intersected by them, or if one or more DFNs intersect the intervals at such an orientation as to facilitate the flow of injection water to the interval. The first condition has not been verified in the literature, and in fact
contradicts the prevailing facies distribution model for the Arab-D (Chapter 4).
The second condition, however, may be prevalent. The existence of faults and discrete fracture systems have been confirmed throughout the field.[5] Furthermore, the high conductivity of these systems has been accepted as prevalent,[1],[52],[46],[51] and the orientation of the fracture systems, although becoming better defined with seismic studies currently being conducted over much of the field, may be practically irrelevant, as coning within a DFN has been demonstrated, as cited in the previous section.
Thus, under this condition, a DFN of any orientation, and any appreciable length, for that matter, that has a sufficient vertical thickness to connect a permeable interval intersected by a well, to a region of high water fractional flow, located at a greater depth, may contribute to high water cut at the well.
Thus, the existence of DFNs in the Arab-D favors, and may in fact determine completely, the detrimental effects of
the high permeability intervals.
Note that we have adopted, in the title of this section, the traditional parlance for super-k, as describing only the thin, permeable interval. It must be made clear that
our model of super-k consists of the combination, thin conductive interval and DFN.
Therefore, under our definition, it is concluded definitely that super-k is bad: under waterflood conditions, DFNs provide conduits for water flow, and the conductive
intervals provide connections from DFNs to producing wells.
Al-Ajmi, et al.[54] presented the results of a study of well productivity for 450 wells (over half of the total) in the Uthmaniyah Sector, that clarifies which of the
two classes of wells, those favorably disposed to thin, conductive intervals, and those rendered non-productive by them, prevails.
----------------------------------------
To me, this is very compelling reading: how much worse has DFN coning gotten in the intervening years? There is probably no way to cost-effectively minimize for this geologic effect. Aramco probably has to accept ever-increasing watercuts and declining production.
DFNs and super-k was ideal in the early stages before the application of waterflooding; it allowed very high, dry oil barrels/well. Now the opposite effect is occurring: the easy waterflood flow through DFNs is inhibiting effective and economic sweep efficiencies from the low porosity/permability payrock.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Hello TODers,
Please see the cubes at Voelker Motherlode PDF pages 459- 461, frames 489-491: Wouldn't you love to 3D fly-thru these blocks trying to best determine injection, drilling, and water-handling decisions?
From the little information Euan presented it seems to me that you folks are simply comparing charts produced using different cartographic projections.
Especially the insider one that has 180 mi N to S seems to have been produced using a non equal-area projection, making it useless for area readings.
GaryP - I've tried fitting your map to Croft's and am sorry to say that your map seems to be bent.
Kind of strange - it took about 2 mnutes to fit the wells map from Volker's thesis, but this one just won't fit at all.
Luis de Sousa has been reminding us about map projections and scaling, so this is clearly one further variable / uncertainty that needs to be taken into account.
Reply sent via email.