<DrumBeat: April 24, 2007 The Oil Drum Short takes>

107 comments on Of Technology and the Future

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jkissing on April 24, 2007 - 11:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Many things have been outsourced, maybe too many... but, most innovation is in the US. Simply check the number of Nobels. The current hot thing is solar; silicon valley and other locales are throwing a lot of money at this, I expect low cost solar (<$1/w) to appear here in a couple of years. There is still no place on earth more receptive to startups with new ideas than the US. A fundamental flaw in our education system is that it does not do a good job educating the majority; a fundamental plus is that it instills original thinking to a minority that are really interested in obtaining an education, and this minority (including some foreigners who come here for education) is generating most of the planet's original thinking.

TOyota is now no. 1, not least because of indiana transplants replacing michigan factories. Does it matter much that ownership is japanese? Japan does do a great job perfecting ideas with high quality manufacturing. A benefit of free trade is world wide partnerships.

High starting salaries for pet geologists will generate new grads in a few years, if there is a shortage of profs, some of the retiring petroleum geologists will teach a bit, say one semester a year... and, these recycled geologists will have a lot of practical knowledge to pass on.

All of the above brought to you by the hidden hand, which works best here...

Permanent jobs are the greatest threat to full employment.

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TJ on April 24, 2007 - 11:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Most innovation is still in the U.S.? Doesn't show. Most advanced cell phone service? Not in the U.S. Most advanced broadband? Not in the U.S. Most advanced refineries? Not in the U.S.

And if your idea is that optimum economic efficiency requires 5-10 year careers, then you will have to accept the side effects; eg, no one will want to make the sacrifices to get the degrees and no one will have any experience.

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BrianT on April 24, 2007 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Jk: Realistically, it depends where one is on the economic spectrum. The current structure of the US economy is the most advantageous it has ever been for probably 25% of the country's population. It is the worst is has been in 50 years for the remaining 75%. The other issue is that this ratio is creeping upward steadily- if the investor class manages to control the economic agenda, within 10 years this split will be more like 85-15, IMO.

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SocraticGadfly on April 24, 2007 - 2:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The "hidden hand"?

Based on outdated Enlightenment Deism, discredited by two world wras, among other things.

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Aniya on April 27, 2007 - 1:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi J,

Thanks for your perspective.

I have a couple of qs.

1) When you talk about "free trade", do you mean multinationals that can locate and re-locate anywhere, as they see fit?

This seems a little different than "trade".

And what about multinationals with offshore banking addresses? Is this the same as "trade"?

2) When you talk about the "world wide partnerships", how do you see these being feasible post-peak? (Or do you?)

3) Sincere question: Why did the US invade Iraq? And where is this leading?

4) What's your thinking about the question asked below, re: increasing divide between "classes" of beneficiaries of the US educational system - and the world "trade" system?

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107 comments on Of Technology and the Future

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