The Oil Drum

Not to mention the fact that *IF* McKenzie was right, and everything is great for the next 20 years, that means we have ONLY 20 years to change the infrastructure! A consumer may be able to switch his/her buying habits quickly to respond to rising energy prices by driving less, turning off the A/C when it's a decent temperature outside, or switching from central natural gas heat to an electric blanket in the bedroom, businesses take YEARS to adapt. Even if things were as rosy as McKenzie TRIES to make it seem, it still should be cause for panic by businesses. In an environment where business plans are 5, 10, and 20 yr plans, only having 20 yrs of reasonably priced oil is cause for concern, let alone the reality of the fact that we're ALREADY at peak.

I personally think that the mainstream media just wants to ensure that there isn't a panic, while those in the know slowly pull out of the markets and adapt their business models. There would be a lot of money lost by powerful people if the mainstream media truly let out how FUBAR the situation is going to be.

The guy is clearly dishonest. He doesn't mention that growth in non-OPEC supply would also have to offset decline in places like the North Sea and Cantarell. It looks to me he hopes people will think 52-47=5 when the real number of additional supply would have to be much bigger than that.
Notice how he shifts from talking 'production' in non-OPEC to talking 'capacity' in KSA, obviously he hopes that people will confuse the two (try putting 'capacity' in the tank of your car and see how far it'll go).