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That's an interesting pattern on that chart. I hope we hit $4/Gallon this summer.
$4 a gallon doesn't sound much for Europeans.
However if we had three times higher prices since 2002 today, as the chart shows for the US, that would mean 3,60 Euros a litre (more than $10/gallon).
Yes
In sweden the gasoline price since 2002 has not jumped much at all. The price as i recall it 2002 was about 10 krona/litre, summer 2006 it was breafly 12 krona/litre. Today when i filled my car it was 11,88 krona/litre. So the price rise here is propably not much more than the usual inflation. Gasoline is still cheap.
The price rise in USA must mostly be dependent of the decent of the USD value since 2002.
Gasoline isn't the only thing that will be rising in the near future. What a train wreck!
ELP anyone?
The war for your electric bill
Oh! Poor texas with their high electric rates of 12 plus cents per kilowatt. Try 32 cents on to see a good jump in your bill. We seem to be able to cope with these rates so far, but it will just be more heat to the fire as peak unravels. I'm putting in a 125 KW hydro unit. At least we will have electricity.
If you would like some technical assistance, let me know. My eMail is under my name if you click it. Perhaps we can talk.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Is the seasonality of the past couple of years something new, or was the non-seasonality of the few preceeding years the exception?
If the seasonality is emergent, what is causing it? More and longer vacation driving? More hurricane evacuations? Or something else?
My guess: with supply now very close to the inelastic demand, slight changes in either can cause major price swings. Seasonal driving patterns in the USA cause such changes in demand. Hurricanes and wars cause changes in supply, but that's not as reliably "seasonal".
We can call it the "Peak Oil Buzzsaw."
Each spike slices through what's left of discretionary income and leaves the US economy in an increasing morass of bloody tatters.
-best,
Wolf
Superimpose a supply chart over the price chart and it becomes obvious what is happening.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I hope we hit $4/Gallon this summer.
Frankly, so do I, as I believe price is the only thing that will get people's attention and cause them to conserve.
FYI, I have published an analysis of what I think we will see with tomorrow's report, as well as why the gasoline situation does not support the "Peak Now" view. It doesn't disprove it either, but I believe those who think it supports a current oil peak are misreading the situation. It wouldn't help us one iota at the moment for Saudi to open the taps. We have to get current crude inventories headed down first, and we can only do this by getting refinery utilization back up. See my analysis at:
My Views on the Gasoline Inventory Situation
Also, Doug Macintyre, the author of This Week in Petroleum - and the guy who puts the EIA reports together - is again posting in the comments section following that essay. If you have a question about what's going on, he has been pretty good to answer them. As I pointed out in my latest essay, so far my price prognostications are ahead of his. :-)
Hi Robert,
I don't think the gasoline situation is directly related to Peak Oil either at the moment.
But one thing that does confuse me (re:KSA increasing production) is why did we draw so much from inventory in Jan and Feb 07(about 1MMBPD/80.5Million barrels in Feb)?
We can increase gasoline production, but if we are still drawing down crude inventory(OECD), isn't that going to squeeze eventually?
The crude inventory draw (OECD) is the area that concerns me most. So, to me, that is where the KSA question comes in, can they swing 1MMBPD to balance the equation!?
What do you see happening?
The crude inventory draw (OECD) is the area that concerns me most. So, to me, that is where the KSA question comes in, can they swing 1MMBPD to balance the equation!?
What do you see happening?
I notice that the OECD has reduced their demand forecast for 2007. But, if the OECD inventories continue to come down, Saudi will be called upon regardless of what's going on in the U.S. But we aren't going to be calling on them unless we start pulling our own inventories down. I hope we see a situation this year where they are definitely called upon to supply more oil, because that will start to answer a lot of questions.
Thanks. Yes, it would be nice to know one way or another if KSA has capacity left.
Right on. Consume More!
But what if refinery utilization can't be improved, if there are always other "facts on the ground"? Our whole system is so oil dependent it doesn't seem to me like lthat is any different than our being unable to find enough engineers, pipe or platforms from which to drill. We still max out on production. It's just another variation on the Law of Receeding Horizons, isn't it?
The more we depend on the efficiency of a monoculture the more vulnerable we will be to any disturbance - everything has to be exactly right to increase yield. Consequently the system as a whole peaks out just because a butterfly flaps its wings.
Yeah, we could produce more oil if we dumped it out of the wellhead onto the ground so we are not maxed out? The system has a certain amount of head; making it more efficient actually increases that head.
cfm in Gray, ME
Well said. This also applies to what's going on with imported European honey bees and our monoculture of corn. It's always good to have diversity in the system in order to deal with the breakdown of one piece. Leaves us with alternatives. The reason it is not part of business standard protocol is that it does not make as much money as quickly. This is one drawback of letting the market take care of things.
Like High Demand near 100% refinery ultilization together with just-in-time supply.
Like dealing with constantly evolving blending and quality requirements coupled with aging equiptment where personel experience and expertise are sometimes in short supply.
Like an ever increasing complex addition of refining steps and processes need to deal with steadily deteriorating crude quality in varying quantities from diverse sometimes intermittent sources.
Or all of this at once.
We could easily go through the same exercise with the crude supply side. So relatively, oil pumped more easily and was simpler to refine previously compared to the downslope of Hubbert's peak. As the number of moving parts increases total co-ordination is nearly unachievable. It's just possible that we are witnessing that the whole big fantastic machine is simply reaching the limits of it's own complex nature.
Title of new book:
"Peak Oil: Forced Global Simplification"
excellent
There is the Mom and Pop stations verses the Exxon's around here. The Mom and Pop have their highest Octane at (US)$2.98 and the Exxon has it at $3.22. Just goes to show you where the extra change is going, to the Exxon profit base.
When the mom and pop stations get over 4 bucks then I'll start to worry, but then again I have other things I can worry about if I have to go out and worry about things, I don't need the stomach upset, I try not to worry about anything.
But there is a lot of waste in the system, a lot of people can cut back a lot more than they are and then the demand will shrink to the bare bones. That has not happened yet, there is lots of slack in the ropes right now and after the summer when the belts have to be tightened then we will have to look at things again.