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143 comments on The EIA Graphs: Gas Stocks, Crude Stocks, and Other Requisite Information before the Start of Driving Season

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Sam Foucher on May 3, 2007 - 11:17am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

The EIA numbers are usually hard to track because they fluctuate widely week after week. I have tried to monitor significant statistical fluctuations against historical data (see here).

Gasoline demand is slightly above expectations and shows no sign of faltering despite high prices.


Gasoline consumption projections (4-weeks moving average): The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly consumption for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.

Crude oil imports are way below expectations and are at the bottom of observed historical fluctuations since 1991:


U.S. Crude oil imports (4-weeks average): The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly import level for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.

Also refinery utilization is way below expectations for this time of the year (this has been the case since Hurricanes Katrina/Rita):


U.S. Crude oil imports (4-weeks average): The gray level image in the background is the observed seasonal fluctuations (darker areas mean more frequent values). The red curve is the observed data for 2007. The * means that the data for the year 2006 and 2005 have been adjusted to match the yearly import level for 2007 given by a linear growth model. The dark dotted line is the average fluctuation.

My reading of this chart is that it seems we have a refinery problem (have we fully recovered lost refinery capacities since Katrina?) which implies that crude oil is piling up in stockpiles that are near all time high levels.

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FTX on May 3, 2007 - 11:42am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"have we fully recovered lost refinery capacities since Katrina?"

I don't think it's all down to Katrina. Jeffrey Brown (Westexas) speculated yesterday that a growing shortage of experienced refinery workers could be causing problems for refiners. And now we have the release of BP's internal report into the 2005 Texas City refinery explosion.

The report recommends the dismissal of four employees: BP's North American refining and marketing group vice president; the regional vice president for US refining; the Texas City plant manager; and the Texas City West plant supervisor.

I would think that anyone involved in refinery management in the U.S. must now be thinking very carefully about the potential downside of running a refinery flat out and ignoring/delaying maintenance issues. Not only might you lose your job over it, but you might even end up in jail.

Mind you, no doubt there'll be pressure from above to keep the gasoline flowing. Seems like they're caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.

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143 comments on The EIA Graphs: Gas Stocks, Crude Stocks, and Other Requisite Information before the Start of Driving Season

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