Peak Oil: Psychological Shock Now

The impact of Peak Oil on one Oregon resident.

"No civilization can survive the physical destruction of its resource base." --Bruce Sterling

The low, dark roll-cloud passed overhead like the curl of a vast, seething wave. A burst of small hail quickly swept across the park's field and thrummed against the plastic roof of the play structure on which I stood. The cold, white spheroids, blasted under the shelter by a chilly west wind, tapped against my shoes, and stuck to my daughter's long, pink coat. With big, blue eyes, she looked at the field, which had now become partially lost to the haze created by the veil plummeting pellets of ice. Her face showed an incredible wonder for the meteorological phenomenon that had transformed our little world of play.

Production at Cantarell, Mexico's largest oil field, is crashing. Mexico provides a significant amount of crude imports to the United States.

My daughter asked, "How long would the hail last?" I glanced at the sky. The charcoal-gray cloud had shifted to the east. The band of precipitation was clearly narrow. I replied, "Only briefly." Many thoughts swirled through my mind, and distracted me from further elaboration. Peak oil. Collapse. When I went off to college, I had one of the greatest times of my life. The university offered an amazing world of learning; intellectual, social, artistic and much more. Would my daughter have a chance at the same experience? I couldn't answer that question. It didn't seem likely. I had just turned 18 when I went to college; still just a child in many ways. And here was this five-year-old standing next to me. So young, so dependent on me for her well-being. Would she even have a "normal" childhood? What would her life be like when she reached ten, twelve, fifteen? The wind's chill seemed to increase, and a shiver shot down my spine.

Wars were a likely response to resource depletion. The 20th century's world-wars appear to have been largely about who controls the flow of energy resources. WW III seems a possible outcome post-Peak-Oil.

The hail shifted over to a cold, steady rain. My daughter ran over to a little metal steering wheel built into the wall of the play structure. "We need to turn the ship around!" she exclaimed as she spun the wheel. Yes, I thought, I wish we could turn the ship around. Even more, I wished I could put my Peak Oil thoughts aside and join in the fun. I tried to do just that and stepped next to her. The frigid rain jabbed my face. "Let's get into port and out of this storm," I said, wishing I could be more enthusiastic. I spun the wheel with her. The play structure did not move.

Energy is required to do work, and more energy is required to expand the amount of available work: industrial economies, dependent on growth, will likely suffer greatly from energy scarcity. People should economize, localize and produce, ELP.

Since my own college experience, I had made many decisions in my life that, in the light of Peak Oil, I now regretted. An economic dislocation of historical--singular--proportions seemed the likely outcome of diminishing available energy. My financial decisions hadn't the best. I had assumed business-as-usual, and I acquired more debt than I probably should have. My job situation was very shaky. In the shadow of Peak Oil, I felt very vulnerable. An economic depression could crush me. And with me would go my daughter, the most important person in my life. This was the girl who had been born three weeks after 9/11. The little life that had warmed my heart the moment I first held her, and gave me hope during such a tragic, dark time. Now, I wasn't sure that I could give her any hope. There seemed to be little hope left. Hope seemed to fade along with the diminishing oil reserves. With all my education, why hadn't I encountered any serious discussion about the potential consequences of resource depletion? If I had known what I know now, I would have done many things differently. I suppose therein lay the answer to my question.

Due to the increasing internal consumption of producing countries, oil exports would likely diminish at a faster rate than oil-field production declines. From the perspective of an importing country, a slow production decline could seem like a crash.

The rain turned to mist, and the wind slowed. Spinning the metal wheel had lost its luster. "The queen bee needs some flowers," said my daughter. She leaped down a drenched slide to go pick little daisies from the green, grassy field that surrounded us. The queen bee was an imaginary monarch who liked to get lots of beautiful floral gifts. In return, the bee gave away treasure. Honey, I imagined. A nice thought. But it didn't bring a smile to me. Honeybee populations in many areas of the world appeared to be collapsing. Maybe, in some fashion, the bees' population reduction was related to my species' massive fossil fuel consumption. No one seemed to really know the real cause. But it was frightening. My daughter plucked little blossoms from the ground, smiling. I wished I could still find the ability to grin again, like my daughter who always seemed to provide that pleasant little gift with abandon. Oh, sometimes I still smiled, and laughed, but a hint of sadness, melancholy always surrounded the humor. Peak Oil was so damn serious. My society should have taken it as such three decades ago.

Ghawar, Saudi Arabia's--and the world's--largest oil field, is dying. When Ghawar's production is post-peak, the world is post-peak.

Thunder rumbled to the southeast. The storm had continued to intensify even as it passed us, and a black blotch of cumulonimbus turned the southern sky into a massive cave with a bulging, gravid ceiling. As I stared at the awesome scene, electricity seethed from the cloud. The flash left bright afterimages across my vision. Nearby house lights flickered. Would Peak-Oil-related blackouts begin in a few years? Indeed, when would electricity become unreliable? When would the internet's utility rapidly diminish? Would I be able to communicate with my family, who were scattered all over the country? During such a tumultuous future, would I ever be a dependable dad for my child? Were things as hopeless as they seemed? Thunder rumbled, and shook the plastic floor under my feet. My daughter ran toward me. Her eyes were open wide, and the smile had been replaced with a worried look. Yep, time to get inside. I made my way down the damp stairs. My little girl clamped onto my legs, and said, "I'm scared!" I held her tight. "It's okay. We'll head home." I hoped beyond hope that I could continue reassure her as the Peak Oil Maelstrom unfolded. I would try my best to be there for her. However, the future seemed so very dark.

"I seriously believe that the peaking of the global production of crude oil--commonly known as 'Peak Oil'--has occurred in 2006 and will be 'The Event' bound to dominate the history of the 21st century: one of those 'Historical Inflection Points' which abruptly change "fundamentals" in the course of World History." -- Dr. A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari.

Acknowledgements: Many thanks to Jeffrey Brown for his writings on ELP and the oil export situation.

Thanks for reading.

-best,

Wolf