The Oil Drum

Some inconvenient facts:

Scotland last made a positive cash contribution to the UK Exchequer in 1905.

Scotlands oil is currently providing 11 billion sterling a year to the UK Exchequer.

The UK provides 30 billion sterling to Scotland each year.

The Barnet formula ensures that for every pound sterling of government money spent in England, £1.25 is spent in Scotland.

Last time I looked: 11-30 = -19 billion sterling per year.

Scotlands oil will fall from its peak production in 1999 to at least half that by 2015, and probably less than 1 million bbls / day by 2018.

25% of the working population in Scotland are employed at tax payer largesse. Many in ludicrous and overpaid and pension protected jobs

Less than half the total population are actually in paid employment contributing taxes to the exchequer. About 48%
And this figure includes the public employee tit-babies

Prior to the discovery of North Sea Oil, Scotland was rapidly depopulating. Especially in the North East.

Incomers have stabilised the population decline. Which is good. Because by 2025 we will need lots of overtaxed low wage immigrants to wipe our arses while we whinge and whine in old folks homes. I am sure they will flock in to do it.

By 2025, Scotland will be an old peoples home, with the North Sea kaput, and public employees demanding impossible protections and entitlements from an ever reducing and ageing work force.

And all of the above is without Global Peak Oil or GW.

Aye. Today was a sea change in Scottish politics. But the new Masters dont even recognise Peak Oil and have sold a line about oil lasting another 30 years and the creation of a Norwegian Style Oil Endowment Fund.

The new man in charge is an Economist by the way...

So, by 2010 the new boy wants a referendum on independence and he has also said that (and this IS true) If Scotland does not like independence, we can always go and re-join the Union.

One last important little factlet:

Scotland was not forced to join the Union 300 years ago. It joined after the Darien Fiasco (Scotlands attempt at raising overseas colonies). When Scotland Joined the Union it was Bankrupt and had been suffering under a severe Christian Regime very similar to the Taliban (''why dont Scots have sex standing up? - Because somebody may think they are dancing''.)

The Union heralded Access to Capital, Access to markets, And the truly amazing and world changing Scottish enlightenment.
Scotland lost interest in the Union about the same time Britain's Empire went into decline.

I dont see today as a good day for Scotland or the UK.

As for rejoining the Union at a later date, well, 55 million English may have something to say about that.

If Scotland is lucky, it may be in a position to sell water to the English as the climate dries England out.