<DrumBeat: May 9, 2007The Oil DrumDrumBeat: May 10, 2007>

45 comments on Wildcats & Tigers: China's Oil Acquisition Strategy

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nelsone on May 9, 2007 - 10:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

memmel,
It's possible that the current mess is exactly on-plan, keeping the pot boiling there without costing too many GI's per week. The US needs a pretext for its fourteen huge, permanent bases in Iraq, with the key word being permanent.

The destabilizing effect of the occupation on Saudi, the brinksmanship with Iran, even the control of pipeline routes through Afghanistan, it all works to the same end, creating and maintaining the pretext for a permanent and expanding occupation.

At least I find such grim, conspiratorial machinations more comforting than chalking this fiasco up to the "banality of evil."

But I have to disagree with you about the US Navy. Submariners are fond of saying that there are only two types of ships, subs and targets, but the planners don't agree. In war gaming, the Nimitz-class carriers are just about invulnerable, positioned as they are in the center of the battle-group bubble. But their game changes completely the instant the first nuke detonates.

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Oil Watcher Named Ed on May 9, 2007 - 11:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Part of the plan of 14 large bases requires the reinstatement of the draft. That draft may be the deciding question. Will American voters okay this?

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NASAguy on May 10, 2007 - 12:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I doubt it (the draft). Maybe in the future sometime, but it is not in sight yet.

On the Iraq war and the U.S. military, it's probably useful to keep in mind where the U.S. has been successful and where it has been unsuccessful. As long as the focus of the military was on killing enemies and blowing things up, as in the initial conquest of Iraq, the U.S. military was very successful. When the mission switched to a policing action, the U.S. military has had trouble. In a policing action, it is a bad day when a lot of Iraqis die, because they are no longer an enemy. In order to think clearly about the situation, the change in the mission is important.

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memmel on May 9, 2007 - 11:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree about the subs I thought I basically said the same thing. I guess I was misunderstood.
Also its really hard for me to set up china as a real military threat esp post peak. China will be facing serious internal problems that will make it hard for them to push outward.

If you look at China and India's and even Europe's internal problems have repeatedly ripped apart all attempts at world domination. Many people don't realize that China is just as polyglot as Europe with probably more languages. They do share a written language and a official language but at a regional level the local languages and identity are very strong in China.

America has finally managed to be the effective rulers of the world the problem is nobody wants it.

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alistairC on May 10, 2007 - 4:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

China doesn't have to be a superpower on a level with the US to be the effective hegemon.

Even a second-rate blue-water navy will be good enough to play gunboat diplomacy with Angola or Nigeria, should it prove necessary.

Who will stand up to them?

The USA? The Iraq adventure will have castrated the US for a couple of decades at least : not in terms of military capability, but in terms of public will for imperial adventures. I doubt if they could even sustain an occupation of Venezuela, politically.

Russia? The Chinese will carve out an entente with them.

Europe? Har.

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