 | DrumBeat: May 6, 2007 | The Oil Drum | Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room |  |
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I have asked the same question to my professors and I have yet to get an honest answer. They are so into the fact that comparitive advantage works, that the only answer I ever got was the gov't is suppose to retrain displaced workers. Well that's grand and all, but what about the jobs left?
here's my opinion. We've got roughly 330 million people. I would surmise we only need about half that. The middle class is a social engine for control. Everyone hopes to get there and hardly anyone makes it out. There are fewer ways to make it into the middle class and they are being wiped out by inflation and debt. The lower classes are doomed as they are in a global labor arbitrage game they can not win since the costs of living are so much higher.
Meanwhile the middle class is getting squeezed like an orange between looking upper class and servicing the debt to do so. In the meantime they are mostly oblivious to the coming disasters. The upper class will always be this way and they are not worried about labor issues as they are now truly global in that many US companies now derive a majority of their revenues from outside this country.
The only snowball in hell's chance is to gain an edge in information and utilize skills that are locally specific. It's hard to say what will happen but planning for what could happen like reduced globalization but you've got to keep in mind paradigmes are resistance to change and we'll find every way to maintain the status quo.
The "Great Education Myth" as Sirota calls it.
cfm in Gray, ME
I keep reading posts about the lack of skilled workers in the energy industry in the US. We have spent the last 30 years telling kids the future lays in computer software. What I'm reading tells me all those kids should have learned welding, mechanics, and construction skills instead. There is even a lack of drivers for 18-wheelers. My brother paid for college by working at McDonald's. He worked for 15 years as a systems analyst. His job was outsourced. He's back working at McDonald's.
There's a great 90 day course to learn the skills to work on a land drilling rig through the Midland, Texas community college. I'd bet money that with a little hands-on experience and his computer skills he could get an extremely good job with any number of oil service companies in domestic exploration and production.
The thing that is really scary is that huge numbers of empty shipping containers are piling up in the ports because the US no longer makes much of anything that the rest of the world wants to buy.
Empty shipping containers?????
One of the most accurate measures of the activity of the US economy and consumer/industry spending is rail freight traffic. The first four months of the year show railroad carload traffic down over four percent and intermodal traffic (containers and trailers) down about the same. Those goods from China are not flowing nearly as fast as they were a year ago. Go to www.progressiverailroading.com and hit the news bar and look at May 4th rail news about rail freight traffic.
On Another Note:
Several posters recently made statements that India did not increase its oil consumption and oil imports last year. WRONG! The above article states that India's oil imports were up over 11 percent year over year for 2006. They are on course for more of the same this year.