The Oil Drum

Sounds like a Cargo Cult, doesn't it?

Aren't the current handful of US LNG terminals only running at about 50% utilisation?

Isn't this due to spot market prices being too high, so the US can't afford the cargos to "feed" the terminals?

In order to justify more LNG terminals the US needs to have long term supply contracts for LNG.

Key questions: Do these supply contracts exist? Can the US afford them?

Currently, there are too many LNG tankers for the size of the market because there aren't enough terminals of both types. Yet, LNG tankers continue to be built because of the massive contracts taken between China and Qatar/Iran, whose yearly volume alone would require at least 100 LNG tankers for transport. Further, the US is way behind in securing longterm LNG contracts, which Bush administration policies haven't helped.

I calculated that we would need at least 8 tankers per terminal to run at near full capacity (more if the LNG comes farther afield).

That is 280 tankers. Just for the US alone.

The committee on homeland security sees some challenges with this as well:

Numerous logistical hurdles remain, however. Local opposition to the construction of LNG terminals is growing, compounding the already difficult task of locating suitable gas receiving sites. At present, the continental United States has 5 operational LNG import terminals  1 is a deepwater port located 116 miles off the coast of Louisiana.
.....

Over the last 5 years the global LNG carrier fleet grew by 73 percent, from 128 to 222 vessels. And, an additional 133 LNG vessels are scheduled for delivery to service the global LNG trades by 2010. This expanded fleet will require as many as 10,000 additional seafarers, of whom almost 3,000 will be licensed officers – and, offers tremendous employment opportunities for both licensed and unlicensed U.S. mariners. This dramatic increase also comes at a time when we are already experiencing a greater demand for seafarers in general due to a dramatic increase in international trade.

The worldwide LNG tanker fleet currently lacks a single U.S.-flag vessel.

Another type of skilled trade shortage...in the energy industry as well.

While worldwide natural gas is in plentiful supply, the United States holds less than 4 percent of world reserves. During 2006, about 84 percent of all natural gas consumed in the United States was domestically produced. By the year 2025, as demand increases, domestic production is only expected to account for 79 percent of consumption. To accommodate this shortfall, LNG imports are projected to increase eight-fold to 4.4 trillion cubic feet per year.

Perhaps a bit optimistic about the domestic production.

A 2002, EIA LNG export report:

New projects under construction in Australia, Russia, Norway, and Egypt, together with expansions of existing facilities throughout the world, will increase annual liquefaction capacity by 2.8 Tcf (58 million tons) by 2007, increasing global capacity to 9.4 Tcf (197 million tons) per year, which represents 10 percent of 2002 global natural gas consumption.

I guess we will have to hope that they can continue to expand like mad, since the US alone will take half of this LNG down the road.