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303 comments on DrumBeat: May 9, 2007
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303 comments on DrumBeat: May 9, 2007
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35 terminals? Are there anywhere near the number of tankers available to supply that number?
Sounds like a Cargo Cult, doesn't it?
Without an LNG export terminal, an LNG import terminal obviously would serve no purpose to anyone. (Unless you got the contract to build it)
This seems to be based on the idea of "if you build it they will come".
Aren't the current handful of US LNG terminals only running at about 50% utilisation?
Isn't this due to spot market prices being too high, so the US can't afford the cargos to "feed" the terminals?
In order to justify more LNG terminals the US needs to have long term supply contracts for LNG.
Key questions: Do these supply contracts exist? Can the US afford them?
Currently, there are too many LNG tankers for the size of the market because there aren't enough terminals of both types. Yet, LNG tankers continue to be built because of the massive contracts taken between China and Qatar/Iran, whose yearly volume alone would require at least 100 LNG tankers for transport. Further, the US is way behind in securing longterm LNG contracts, which Bush administration policies haven't helped.
I calculated that we would need at least 8 tankers per terminal to run at near full capacity (more if the LNG comes farther afield).
That is 280 tankers. Just for the US alone.
The committee on homeland security sees some challenges with this as well:
Another type of skilled trade shortage...in the energy industry as well.
Perhaps a bit optimistic about the domestic production.
A 2002, EIA LNG export report:
I guess we will have to hope that they can continue to expand like mad, since the US alone will take half of this LNG down the road.