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25 comments on Cabinda: Prospects for an Oil Insurgency in the Angolan Exclave

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gTrout on May 12, 2007 - 1:19pm

Jeff,

Has anyone done a thesis on how much of the oil wealth it would take to buy off the local populations of these locations?

Even something as simple as giving away natural gas cook stoves with free refills on cylinders would create a local population that needs and wants the local oil company.

There must be some level of wealth transfer that results in peaceful co-existence, or even Americans would be kidnapping oil company employees for ransom because it pays more than not kidnapping them. At some point the marginal return on a crime has to balance against damaging a shared asset. (possibly balance because the other people are arresting the kidnappers instead of hiding them, but it is still the same).

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jeffvail on May 12, 2007 - 3:50pm

I think that there is certainly the potential to distribute a "fair" share of this oil wealth to the populace, buying their genuine support, while maintaining exceptional profits. Today's oil production from the waters of Cabinda grosses roughly $13 billion per year. This deepwater oil is not cheap to produce, but let's say (WAG) that oil companies and the Angolan government collectively reserved $1 billion per year for the people of Cabina. Evenly distributed, this is about $3,300 per man/woman/child--an extraordinary sum for Sub-Saharan Africa. This $1 Billion is roughly the sum that Angola claims they reserve for Cabinda, but no one even pretends that this actually reaches the common people, let alone ever leaves Luanda. Just my opinion, but given what I consider the very high potential for trouble, it seems that it would be a prudent long-term investment (for both western companies and the Angolan federal government) to reinvest around that $1 Billion mark.

There is also the issue of how that money is used. Just cutting each person a check for $3,300 isn't very effective because it drives inflation. The best-practice for an oil revenue fund is certainly Norway, but to follow their lead requires exactly the kind of transparent, stable government and civil society that is lacking in Angola.

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mr f on May 12, 2007 - 5:41pm

Why "[buy] their genuine support" when you can just take what you want?

And I'm not saying this from an American point of view--I'm saying this from a corrupt African politician/guerilla point of view.

I hate to be so pessimistic, but honestly--Africa has been a maelstrom of violence and corruption on the first half of the upward-bound slope (not without the long sustained "assistance" of centuries of violent european domination)... it is hard to imagine what things will look like in Africa on the other side of Hubbert's peak, but certainly they will not look as good as things are today, which, relatively speaking, is not very uplifting--but what is? Jesus! Jesus! Hallelujah!

My opinion is that no one is going to even think about "buying people off"--it is easier to be corrupt and siphon it off while *paying* political lip service. Aside from how seemingly easy it is to exploit people (especially when they are uneducated, but ironically this also holds true for highly educated people as well, *oh the despair!*), it could also start a "bad" trend of actually instilling in people the idea that perhaps what's in their country belongs to them... I know, I know an absurd idea in this era of soon to be ending globalization...

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hightrekker on May 13, 2007 - 1:04pm

MR F--
Angolans are a very savvy bunch when it comes to fighting. They held up and defeated a well financed CIA operation for decades, with the best mercenaries money could buy.
I would not discount a Angolan resistance that would cause even a violent and ruthless oil elite nightmares.
Angola, Mozambique, and Guinea Bissau were the last colonies in Africa (Portuguese), and the fighting experience is fresh.

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jjhman on May 12, 2007 - 3:52pm

Sadly I think virtually no humans are ever satiated. Give them stoves and soon they want new houses. Give them houses and they want cars. etc.

The scary thing is that even if you kill them all someone will come along to kill you for whatever wealth is left.

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