 | A Political Storm Over Canadian Energy Security | The Oil Drum | The Man Who Wrote the Book on Algal Biodiesel |  |
304 comments on DrumBeat: May 17, 2007
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304 comments on DrumBeat: May 17, 2007
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New technology, salt water injection, will save us.
I sure hope these saline water injection experiments work. They could double Oman’s oil production. And if they work perhaps Saudi Arabia may try this bold new technology of injecting salt water into their reservoirs to increase production. Then those enormous resources in Canadian oil sands kick in and the world will be awash it oil.
“Peak Oil,” what a silly idea.
I must add, Kate Dourian is Middle East Editor for Platts. That means she is an expert on oil production so this new technology, salt water injection, may have some merit.
Ron Patterson
Ever get the feeling we've lost the argument?
We may or may not be right (about a near-term peak and decline), but the argument -- the public argument, meant to help mitigate a crisis -- that is lost.
For example, look at the article here and the comments that follow:
clueless.
This guy's article points up a couple of things:
The public is deeply distrustful of Big Oil -- so much so, that many completely ignore the fact that Big Oil has been pooh-poohing Hubbert's message. This is going to come back to haunt the oil companies. If the public is angry over $3 gas, how will they react when it hits $5 or $10 a gallon?
We live in what I refer to as The Disinformation Age. There is so much "information" that comes at us from so many sources, that it really requires a sixth sense to be able to weed out the BS. Much of the public lack effective filters and so -- not knowing what to believe -- they retreat into superstition and prejudice.
Like you told the guy: Either you prepare or you don't.
My biggest fear is that the news of peak will be swept away by something more dangerous like...(fill in the blank)
Or, with this distrust, people go beyond attempting boycotts and eventually start attacking the infrastructure - as seen in Pakistan, India, Nigeria, etc already. It's another "if I can't have it, then..." situation.
Yet another above ground concern that will likely, eventually, become reality.
Which is why we need to look at the nodes in our fragmented, network industrial society where authority is recognized and defended - religious movements particularly, since media and government are widely dismissed as noted above. Religious movements could lead us, or groups of people, in any of a variety of directions - from authoritarian to egalitarian to communal - as people seek to make meaningful declining energy per capita, unprecedented in the vast majority of people's experience (even with the 1930s depression or WWII). I'm finding myself looking at these relationships among people in areas, societies and classes already dealing with powerdown.
Yes - if there ever was a reason to be connected in some way to an organized religion its Peak Oil Powerdown
Paradoxically this may not be the best for organized religion
Ron,
You never know how new technology might amazingly increase production! I mean, one of these days they might figure out how to re-inject associated gas, injecting CO2, or even drill wells sideways! Once they figure out how to drill wells sideways, they might even be able to create "branching laterals" for maximum reservoir contact! If they could do that, we could quintuple our current production rate and actually make oil magically appear in the ground!!
I think we should create a thread entirely dedicated to sarcasm.
I think we should create a thread entirely dedicated to sarcasm.
Why would you want to do that? This is a serious matter, isn't it? Don't you want people to take peak oil seriously?
You people on this site should buck up and get more professional. Like, maybe you should get somebody to write a 16,000-word article about a big oilfield, like perhaps that big Saudi field. Or a 3,700 word article about the dangers of ecological collapse. Or maybe someone can issue a report on what it would take to mitigate a "peak" in oil extraction rate.
Hey! How about if someone compiled a daily list of articles that pertain to the subject? Anyone up to that?
Yeah, that would do it. That would get the public's attention and cause a Great Transformation of Consciousness.
There just haven't been enough daily articles beamed into the public's consciousness. Someone needs to invent an electronic device that would enable folks to find this information with just the click of a button. That would be so neat.
Really, Mr/Mrs Substrate. This obsession with sarcasm is unseemly in a professional.
OK, b3NDZ3La...deep breaths...look, it's all going to be just fine...Prez Bush is on it like stink on a skunk...we got hydrogen coming...we got ethanol coming...he's told us we're addicted to oil...that will make us all stop using...right?
We got all that deep, offshore oil coming...we got mounds and mounds of oil in those tar sands up north. There's all kinds of new discoveries being announced around the world...heck even the Saudis just told us they found a new one RIGHT next to that old beast Ghawar.
Iraq is so unexplored out west, you could stick a straight pipe down 10 feet and the black gold would smack you back in the face.
So quit your frettin and go gas up the the RV...Memorial Day weekend is right around the corner
Happy Motoring!!
I long ago came up with the solution to peak oil/peak energy. It's simple really. We put windmills everywhere, and then use electric fans to create the wind that powers them. That way we'll have reliable wind power 24 hours a day, everywhere. Using this ingenious method, everybody could generate all the power they need at home. You could even run these windmills in your basement.
The problem is that Big Oil doesn't want Americans to know about this great, heretofore untapped source of energy.
I really need to get in touch with President Bush and urge him to come up with several billion dollars in subsidies to get this plan under development quickly, while there's still time.
Why ozonehole, that is so great!
I have this friend? He rents out equipment to people. He has LOTS of generators that he can't rent out except during blackouts. He would LOVE to rent out these generators to power your fans!
See what happens when Good Minds come together?
Why doesn't your friend just knock out power substations? lol.
Jeez, didn't you all know that there's free power just waiting to be plugged into upon any beach!
Since we are in need of humor today:
Please imagine the poor subject of this panel as being one that has read TOD for several years and then watched the world's response:
I'd rather be in a county lockup than someplace like that. Wouldn't matter how much you paid me. That's just inhuman. What are we doing??
Matt
Like oh my gosh havent you heard??? Just recently a dude from Shell got that sidewayz drilling idea from his pimply-faced kid who was using his straw to suck the last droplets of his strawberry milkshake from the side of his glass!!!11!!one!! ROFLcopter!!
We're saved!! =D
i think i detect a hint of sarcasim in your post.
I use grow lamps on my PV panels.
The sarcasim here at TOD is so thick you can mine it and process it into sarcanol.
Sarcanol, eh? Whats the ROI on that?
You dont need to mine it.
It flows freely out of Mount Teotwawki, the volcano on Hawaii.
High quality sarconol is surprisingly difficult to distill despite the copious amounts of raw material for it's production just lying around waiting to be picked up today.
Many have argued that there is a non-depleting supply of sarconol, but I would argue that when the GWB administration leaves office in 20 months, that the raw material for sarconol will be reduced by at least 75% and perhaps even more ! We may face a sudden and quite desperate shortfall in sarconol !! High quality sarconol may not be available at ANY PRICE ! and low quality sarconol will be scarce. AND no reserves stored from our current time of plenty ! :-((
To reinforce my point, just consider if Al Gore has won the Florida recount/Supreme Court case (or Nadar had not run).
Sure, there would have been a reasonable amount of low and medium quality sarconol available for use, but the bitterness (an essential ingredient of light sweet high quality sarconol) would be lacking.
No, I am afraid that we are enjoying Peak Sarconol during the second term of GWB.
Best Hopes for less Sarconol raw material in 2009,
alan
Dear AFBE,
I have GOOD news for you!!
Word is out that a huge field of sarconol has been just discovered. I am not at liberty to disclose precisely where, but some rumors are that it is located in the Mitt Romney's brain. Given the fact that the American public is addicted to Republicans as well as oil, we could very well see exponential increases of sarconol accompanied with equivalent increases in our torture infrastructure.
It's morning in America!! Have faith!
Oh come on !
Everybody knows that Sarcanol is Abiotic and generated in the Earths Mantle!
It would be way to funny to offer some MSM outlet a press release on 'Sarconol Research'- and see how far it gets.
Best hopes for some smart ass fun.
Maybe a quote from the Chineese Premier about a newly discovered pool of Sarconal in a well explored area will be forthcoming?
How about some info on my new sarcanol refining company, Sarco! We could issue bunk press releases like Steorn! =D
It's been a long time since I saw such sparse search results, but Google has only 1 entry for "sarconol".
Wow!
http://journals.prous.com/journals/servlet/xmlxsl/dnp/20021506/pdf/dn150...
or is the TOD Sarconol a brand name?
...sacronol...
The Prophet Muhammad encouraged a scientific approach to medicine, saying, "For every disease, Allah has given a cure."
Arabic Pharmacy during the Age of the Caliphs
The text is behind a paywall...maybe Stuart, Euan, F_F, can figure this out.
The text is behind a paywall or a praywall?
Don't worry. Once Congress passes the tax credit for biosarcanol we will be an the road to sarcanol independence.
But I thought that during the GWB reign, the USA was a massive exporter of the raw material for sarconol ! And we set up a fairly decent domestic production industry of the refined product.
For example, The Onion seems to fill a good % of the US market demand for sarconol and that is entirely domestic production (except for a few Canadian wetbacks).
All of Europe seems to be using predominantly American raw material for their domestic sarconol (The French have gone to 100% American supplies, forgoing their once abundant German and English reserves in favor of much richer American material).
Best Hopes for a domestic sarconol peak by January 2009,
Alan
and I also fear a sacronol glut if Romney is elected {shudder}.
The French, though, have recently discovered a promising source of a local variety, Sarkonol. And don't forget the Sarcanol Sands between Brussels and Strasbourg, that have been yielding a steady supply ever since the discovery after WW2.
Sarcanol Sands
You idiot! We'd burn all the world's cynicol to process those Sarconal Sands. The next thing you'd want us to do is to start using satiricol hydrates!!!
I give credence to claims that France has the world's largest reserves of cynicol. And with domestic production of Sarkonol just starting, France should have abundant supplies of both sarcinol and cynicol for the foreseeable future, despite any supply disruptions from the USA in early 2009.
Although I agree, mining the Sarconol Sands takes excessive amounts of cynicol with very poor quality sarconol produced. EU bureaucrats are an extremely poor source of anything except delay and paperwork. One can waste immense amounts of cynicol on them with truly minimal results. They are not even funny !
Worst Hopes for ??
Alan
Hey...you ARE in the sarcasm thread...if you don't like it...just move along...some are in need of comical decompression today.
Mercy...how am I going to be able to drive Jack and Katrina to soccer practice 3 blocks from our house with all these gas price spikes?
Oil Surges Above $63 on Concern of Below-Normal Gasoline Supply
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ai6ETL_RdlBk&refer=home
It's almost past $65 now!
can somebody explain to me why concerns about gasoline supply are impacting crude oil prices whereas US crude oil stocks seem more than adequate for now.
Contango
Crack Spread
and Hurricanes
My WAG is that refiners know all the crude supply is going to be profitable given this retail environment and these spreads. Tomorrow's oil is still more expensive than today's and if a hurricane gets loose in the Gulf there may not be any deliveries for awhile.
can somebody explain to me why concerns about gasoline supply are impacting crude oil prices whereas US crude oil stocks seem more than adequate for now.
Over the past few years, I have asked that question many times. I have never gotten an answer that made any sense. They move up and down together, even when only one seems to be in under or over-supplied. They diverge at times, as gasoline has done recently due to the inventory problem, but most of the time they move together.
I noted this once with my former boss; a chemical engineer who also did a lot of economics. He would say that gas prices are driving crude prices. I would say "How does that work?" He couldn't explain it. But it is definitely something I have asked about as well.
OK I've got one. If WTI and Brent are moving together today which one is moving the other? I mean ,is the US gasoline market the choo-choo in this whole trainload?
My explanation is that the Saudi's have now started cutting the shipment of light crude (previous cuts were of heavy/medium crude) to Asian refineries. They (Asians) have started buying crude on the spot market to make up for the shortfall. Hence the recent increase in the price of crude.
is the following a possible explanation?
src
Well it's no wonder most people think there's lots of oil left. TOD's just been working with barrels that are too small.
:)
there is obviously a mistake in the text: 42,000= 1,000 barrels.
Hello Khebab,
I think crude prices have more to do with the fear premium over a potentially anarchic Pakistan than with US crude inventory.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=56322
---------------------------------------------------
Fractious, violent, unstable Pakistan stumbling towards failed state
-------------------------------
I believe Pakistan has about 50 nukes on missiles. I don't think they are ICBMs, but a shorter range. Nonetheless, if civil war starts breaking out, I hope Musharraf invites the US and Russia to come in and safely remove the warheads before they fall into the hands of radical groups.
Otherwise, out of fear: India or maybe Israel will pre-emptively nuke this country so that they won't have to worry about a Pakistani nuke warhead flying towards them. If the nukes fall into radical hands, they could be then be covertly shipped almost anywhere.
EDIT: As a last gasp desperation measure to protect these nukes--If I was Musharraf: I would nuke my own country [Pakistan] with one warhead to gain enough time so that the US and Russia could then remove the remaining 49 warheads.
Yes, this would be a horrible cost, but it is still less destructive than having India or Israel sending in a huge volley of nukes.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Or maybe Musharraf trades his skin for access to the nukes ??
I would be very surprised if Pakistan could actually deliver a nuke on target w/ a missle. They are still a relatively early stage nuclear power even compared to India (which certainly can do so,albeit w/ probably a pretty low success rate). It is true that they have quite a few warheads, but this is mainly a function of the amount of fissile material they have been able to produce. Building a nuke and getting it to go off on the ground is one thing. Test firing a missile is another. getting the two to work in tandem is more difficult by at least an order of magnitude. My guess is that the most reliable way for Pakistan to deliver a nuke would be to strap it to a plane and fly it into the target.Ditto for NK if they are even that far along.
Matt
Pakistan has been exporting Chinese designed missles. Saudi Arabia bought the Ghauri from Pakistan, the missile has a range of 1,500 kilometers, based in silos in the city of Al-Sulaiyil, south of Riyadh.
This purchase replaces the KSA's older CSS-2, or East Wind.
In his 2003 Naval Post graduate thesis titled "Is Saudi Arabia a Nuclear Threat?" Steven R. McDowell writes:
So not only does Pakistan have up to date missiles, they manufacture and export them.
Well, if the market thinks refinery capacity can eventually hit about 95% sometime soon, then that implies robust future demand for crude oil, as refineries suck in more raw material to produce more finished product. It is assumed, of course, that the demand for the finished product (gasoline) is strong, which seems to be a safe assumption.
I read a good article in the WSJ a couple of years ago about this, but I can't find it now. It would also be behind a double paywall (extra $$$ even for subscribers).
The term demand-pull inflation is mostly associated with Keynesian macroeconomics, but it seems to apply here. Also see cost-push inflation vs. demand-pull inflation.
concerns about gasoline supply are impacting crude oil prices
Assuming an environment of sufficient refining capacity, it is reasonable to hedge gasoline with crude futures.
That's nothing. I put a small windmill on my car's hood.
I covered my wife's tanning salon with solar panels
Sarcasm is not without its disadvantages.
My first column on peak oil sunk like a stone, perhaps because of its freight of iron-y:
Stupid title not mine.
There's something funny about this quote, like the oil sands are a get-out-of-jail-free card that you can use in any situation.
Yes officer, I was driving the car, there is liquor on my breath, and a bottle of Jim Beam in the passenger seat, but I wasn't drunk driving. There are also enormous resources of oil sands in Canada.
Mentos aint got squat on oil sands!