251 comments on DrumBeat: May 18, 2007
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251 comments on DrumBeat: May 18, 2007
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Senegal begins the slide down the slippery slope to the Olduvai gorge..........
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070517.wsenegal0517...
There was a comment posted yesterday, I think by Tech Guy, about CNBC reporting that some gasoline barges had been diverted from the Northeast US to the South, to head off a possible emergency shortage of gasoline in the south.
As I have repeatedly stated, IMO, what we have seen worldwide in the past two years or so is progressive demand destruction, with forced energy conservation gradually moving up the food chain.
We are conditioned to think that all supply shortfalls are temporary, because historically a shortfall in total oil supply caused a price increase, which caused a falloff in demand and an increase in supply, resulting in a price decline. However, what we saw in Texas and the Lower 48 was declining oil production following a 1,000% increase in oil prices from 1970 to 1980.
The world is now, based on our HL models, where the Lower 48 was at in 1972, on the downslope of the Hubbert's peak. So, what we are going to see, in regard to conventional oil production, is a steady decline in production.
As I have repeatedly stated, it is way past time to begin "Thinking outside the box." While it may not be the "solution," (because there really isn't a solution--all we can do is to try to avoid the worst case scenarios), at least Alan Drake is advocating a credible plan, using technology that we more or less perfected over 100 years ago.
As I have repeatedly stated, it is way past time to begin "Thinking outside the box." While it may not be the "solution," (because there really isn't a solution...,
I'm feeling the same way. There are no solutions in my mind. After reading the recent posts by GuilderGlider, Francois Cellier, and Stuart Staniford, along with the bevvy of media articles lately proclaiming collapse (see today's DrumBeat for examples), I'm less and less convinced in the depths of my heart that preparation does any good.
The current events of late have induced me into much soul-searching, and my perspective on life has changed drastically. I used to think that the ultimate goal in my life was furthering my genetic line by raising healthy successful children to continue the line (instinctive, no?). So far, so good (with two young boys), but I'm feeling more and more that so much of their future (knowing how to help them prepare for it) is out of my hands. It's heartbreaking.
Sometimes I'll stop and watch them, doing their thing, and I get choked up thinking about the wretched mess they're going to experience. I have a hard time not resenting the fortunate lives my parents have known. But we can't choose our window of existence, so I've resolved to experience the joys of my life as fully as I can with the hope that I'll be grateful for each day no matter what it brings.
I have no idea what skills my kids are going to need to succeed in the future. One skill I am working to teach them is the ability to face life with a sense of awe and a sense of humor. Regardless of the events, these skills should come in handy.
Tom A-B
Just not funny anymore is it?
'No more glad, confident morning'.
Well said - I experience the same feelings. On the other hand, I think that the collapse of our society will be the major theme of the rest of our lives, and our children’s lives too. It's the lot we drew, and we may as well accept it. I figure that while very bad things may be happening, there will still be time for joy in the things that matter - like your family. Our children will eventually have to make their own way in life, with whatever befalls them. And we should not loose sight of the fact that the things that bring real happiness are not necessarily the things we grew up with – there can be happiness without oil and excessive energy consumption.
I think that for those of us lucky enough to live a long time, when we look back we will be both surprised at how fast some things changed, and amazed at the resilience of other parts.
Perhaps the most important preparation is to remain mentally agile, be alert and ready to make changes as called for. Essentially, embrace the coming changes, and don’t cling to obsolete thought processes. I have a long way to go in this regard, but I’ve been trying hard for the last couple of years (my wife too), and I am regularly surprised at how many ways I’ve been able to reorient my thinking. Casting off old interests that have become irrelevant, and moving farther from the habits/conventions/beliefs generally accepted by our consumption oriented society has become a source of enjoyment. It’s a challenge of re-inventing myself, while still being me.
I reckon Senegal has reached Peak-Oil these days, in terms of 'cost of petroleum'.
They already take 10 hrs a day in the dark - where will this go if the scenario turns of the worst way ?
Looting next -civil unrest ?
This is probably a historic moment in Senegal; when the lights go out forever.
Many people fail to realize that much of the undeveloped world gets its electricity from diesel generators. India and China have some coal and natural gas from which they generate most of their electricity but most of the rest of the third world nations do not.
And even in places like Bangladesh which generates most of its electricity from natural gas are facing blackouts because their tiny pockets of gas are petering out.
All over Africa, Asia and even Central and South America you will see diesel generators generating electricity. And these are the poorest nations in the world.
Blackouts are now the rule rather than the exception in most of these nations. And rising prics greatly exacerbate the problem.
Not just Senegal but all over the world people are beginning to gaze into the gaping chasm of Olduvai Gorge. And everyday it gets a little worse. If the world becomes aware of peak oil later this year, and I expect it just might, oil prices will go through the roof. What will happen then when the poorest nations on earth are almost totally without electricity while richer nations still bask in the glow of coal and nuclear generated power?
Ron Patterson
The way it's playing out in parts of Africa is sobering. Due to electricity outages, everyone ran out and bought generators. Which caused shortages of kerosene, diesel, and gasoline. Which caused shortages of jet fuel (which is similar to kerosene). Cascading shortages.
I know someone who is married to a diplomat assigned to a country in Africa. They were living on a the top floor of a six floor apartment building, but the constant electricity outages made it difficult to carry a baby stroller and baby up and down six floors on the stairs.
So, they moved into a private compound area, where every house had a standby generator. So, for those with the money, you can (for now) have electricity 24 hours per day.
A glimpse of our future, as forced energy conservation moves up the food chain?
Hello WT,
I emailed selected African countries some time ago asking them to go to full Peakoil Outreach and biosolar conversion--of course no replies.
If they had merely looked ahead [instead of practising denial], they could have easily built rideable spiderwebs, bicycles and wheelbarrows, solar heated community baths and washing facilities, humanure recycling, and other mitigative infrastructure in sufficient quantities to avert much of what is happening now. Such is life.
I hope North America gets its act together soon, or Zimbabwe's decline will be seen as mild compared to what will happen here. Building a strategic reserve of bicycles and wheelbarrows would be very cheap insurance, and would last much longer than our SPR.
http://www.uni-kiel.de/sino/ar/sk/12a_1970s.jpg
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
They do grow oilseeds, and could ramp up their production to produce enough to at least keep their generators running. This could at least be a transitional strategy to buy them some time to invest in some wind generators and other renwables.
Or they could just do nothing, let their grid go dead, and fall totally apart. Up to them, really.
One would think that solar would make more sense for generating electricity before you even start to think about diesel generators...
I wonder whether Jatropha would make sense for Africa. The per-capita consumption is relatively small.
You two stop these idiotic advises, please.
At current prices solar costs $0.50/kwth even in the first world where with its competitive market and access to almost unlimited capital. Wind costs upwards of $0.10/kwth and both require huge initial investments and a running backup generation. Where is the Senegali government going to get the money to meet the upfront costs for all of these? The reason they are running diesel generators is simple - lower capital costs trump higher running costs. Senagal and the third world in general are the last places where renewables would work.
This is why I suggested that they use the oilseeds that they are already growing anyway. Rig up a press with a donkey, and you can produce enough veg oil to run a diesel generator, and enough to fuel the truck to get it into town. People were pressing oilseeds into oil thousands of years ago, it is quite low tech.
While it is quite low tech, are you aware of processing rates?
Ref: Rural Oilseed Processing in Africa
Further, the same source states that there are less than 3500 total such manual presses in ALL of Africa.
Also, this reference states that you can get 825 pounds of sesame seeds per acre with modern agricultural practices including fertilizers, irrigation, and pest control. That same source says that sesame crops are not "poor soil" crops and need excellent quality soils. The lower end of modern agricultural production is around 400 pounds per acre. I would guess that Senegal can produce no more than that and probably far less. Let's guess 220 pounds or an even 100 kg.
Given this it would mean that an acre of land could produce 32-38 liters of sesame oil. Senegal has 2,460,000 hectares of arable land. At 2.47105381 acreas per hectare, this converts to 6,078,792 acres of land. So, if we convert ALL of Senegal's arable land to sesame seed conversion and convert all of that to oil, we get 607,879,200 liters of oil.
Now just one of Senegal's power stations uses 20 each of the Cummins KTA50G3 16 cylinder diesel generating sets. So how much fuel does ONE of these engines use? This document tells us to expect a 330 liter per hour fuel consumption under load. Now remember that this single generating station has 20 of these engines in place. Under load they would consume 330*20=6600 liters per hour.
Knowing this, how many hours can we run this single generating station per year (assuming we don't plant any crops to eat of course)? That's 607,878,200 / 6600 = 921 hours per year. Since there are 365*24=8760 hours in a year, we can run this SINGLE generating plant for 2.5 hours per day and this assumes we plant NOTHING else except sesame seeds.
Your suggestion, sir, is balderdash. As the kids say, "get real" because you certainly are way out there in fantasy land.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I was never suggesting that locally-produced oilseed biodiesel was going to be the solution to all of Senegals problems, or that it could provide 100% of their electricity needs 24/7/365. What I was suggesting is that it could be a transitional strategy to allow at least a FEW generators to run to provide some minimal level of electricity to the highest priority needs (e.g., hospitals, communications infrastructure, etc.)
Apparently I was wrong. I am sure that their country will be much better off with no electricity at all, given that this suggestion is short of a 100% solution.
My god, man, read the numbers! It's not even a 10% solution if we use ALL the arable land! If we reduce the arable land to a more reasonable value, say 20% of total arable, then we have 48 minutes of generating capacity per day for ONE power station, nevermind all the rest of Senegal's power stations. In other words, the use of vegetable oils is so tiny that it does not matter for the vast majority of Senegal's citizens. (And this does not even go into the fact that most oilseed's are processed for food in Africa to provide the necessary basic fats for fat-deficient diets.)
I also never suggested that they would be better off without electricty. What I said was your suggestion was lunacy of the most ignorant, uninformed sort and it is. Senegal needs help and it needs more damned help than a few sesame seed presses can give it. If the rest of the word gave a damn we'd be building solar power plants in Senegal (and other poor nations) like those that have recently been built in California.
However, the silence on that front is deafening. Mitigation? Don't make me laugh.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Greyzone,
Thank you for injecting some reality-based numbers and reasoning.
Yes, you can can run our world (in limited sub-sets) on generators or diesel or batteries, but, a failure to understand the scale of the challenge we face is one of our biggest problems.
And...
Not every problem has a solution...
....and not every solution has a problem.
Sir:
Thank you for educating me (us) on some facts WRT to volumes of oil required to run diesel generators to produce electricity. I was not fully aware of these facts, now I am.
It should be obvious from these facts that the quantities of oil of any type required to run these generators make them a very poor choice for electricity generation under any circumstances.
I am still convinced that local small-scale production of oilseeds for biodiesel has useful applications in specific circumstances, and is worth futher study and development. It is evident that electricity generation is not one of these applications.
Isn't mathematics wonderful! Too bad so few people take time to use it (including myself on occasion).
If we could just figure out a way to harvest the oil from the faces of teenagers as illustrated in Kentucky Fried Movie. ;) Internal Combustion Engines are so incredibly inefficient, they're not worth bothering with. The only game in town, in my opinion, is solar. I don't care if it's intermittant or not. Tell me why I need to run my applicances at NIGHT in a post-collapse world?
So your food doesn't thaw.
You'll have food?
Greyzone says
sorry, Greyzone, but it's actually 92103 hours per year. Of course, tis is still an impossibly low number.
-
James Gervais
Hope was the last ill to escape Pandora's box.
I apologise, this was in fact a very good idea. Unfortunately these countries are already so overcrowded that the food vs fuel issue will probably make it impossible. Generally I don't see them getting along without any sort of effective assistance from the West.
Maybe the most mutually beneficial trade would be to trade our food surpluses in exchange of them producing biodiesel... and probably we should assist them in building several coal or biomass power plants. If this does not happen, just leaving them to break down in total chaos will play a nasty trick to ourselves in the longer term IMO.
Build the 44 GW Grand Inga project and related HV DC lines (I saw a presentation @ HydroVision conference). With new 7 GW in Angola and other hydro & geothermal, Africa could run off of mainly renewable non-GHG electricity (at current consumption rates + some modest growth).
Best Hopes for renewable sustainable power,
Alan
Thank you, Alan, for a voice of sanity here. Oilseed for power? Absurd!!
Hydropower is another option in Africa and one we should be assisting with, precisely to get them OFF of petroleum as we hit peak and decline begins.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
The grand Inga at 44GW installed capasity should definitely materialize - absolutely.
But Norway has 35 GW installed hydro-capasity, and here are only 4,5 million people, and we want more .......
Africa is at 800 million pluss - and very large and distributed. Regardless Inga must be commenced - it will yield 2,5 times the three Gorges dams.
All this just to put Inga in its correct shelf. Btw Inga is the last really big possible hydro-station on this planet
>All this just to put Inga in its correct shelf. Btw Inga is the last really big possible hydro-station on this planet
I can't say I am familar with the region or the project. So I ask, how many people and ariable land would be lost when this dam fills up?
IIRC farmers in China are still using land on the Yangzi riverbecause it the most fertile land. Crop yields are expected to be considerably lower when the land is submerged (by the three-gorges dam) and farmers are forced to farm elsewhere.
FWIW: I think Africa should focus on food and potable water instead of electricity. People can always get by without electricity. They can't survive without food and water. Food and Water seems to be much more of a urgent problem than electricity. I find it ironic that serious discussions over africa lossing a luxary when the continent faces very serious water and food shortages. Its like worry about a minor rares while ignoring the lifethreating gunshot wound.
I dont think they can make a large reservoir - and it is in the middle of the jungle - so to speak.
Normal (minimum) flow is 42.000 cubic meters/s, and at max it is the double of that in the rainy season ... and this "extra" I guess they will just let overflow ... Im not sure though.
I think handling 42.000 cubic meters/s - and at a drop of 100 meter - should be enough to try to handle ....- this makes it a high pressure dam.
In comparsion the Amazonriver gulp out a staggering 270.000 cubic meters/s - Congo is second largest ....
Finally the Nile only discharges a mere 5.000 cubic meters/s
It is my understanding that the Congo River falls off a plateau there and goes into the river delta it created. Think Niagara Falls (in 20,000 years when erosion turns the falls into rapids).
There is/was an active portage industry around the rapids and a few villages on the river banks immediately above the rapids, but it is not dense.
The drainage basin is split almost evenly above and below the equator and has two rainy seasons making a remarkably even flow, with two seasonal peaks.
This is a major source of power with a significant impact on GHG emissions on a global scale. Africa will not do without power entirely, they will burn something to get it !
Specifically, South Africa is looking at Inga II (4 GW) as an alternative to more coal.
Electricity is not "just a luxury". Irrigation pumps and potable water pumps & treatment consume a decent percent of power today. Remember that Africa has a number of mega-cities, and cities function poorly without minimal electricity.
Best Hopes,
Alan
I am on some DIY energy lists. Lists and sites that talk about making your own Windturbines out of a car wheel spindle, Bearings, Disk Brake rotor. And a few magnets. Like
http://www.fieldlines.com/
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/awea-wind-home/messages
This is a great one on making your own windturbine. Take a look at what's going on out in the fields.
http://www.otherpower.com/wisc06.html
Many of these lists (Microhydro, wind, solar etc ) are doing some great small scale (1-2 households) power.
A large percentage are from 3rd world countries in Africa, South America, Asia. These people are doing some great things with just a few components.
If we survive at all, Big IF , I suspect we will have to learn another thing from Cuba. Not the food thing, but the ability to keep a fixed number of 1955-57 Chevy's running for 50 years? Those guys could repair ANYTHING on the car. That survival cleverness will be required. I see Solar collectors made out of Aluminium Flashing, and every other thing to solar heat and cool. Everything will be scrapped and reused.
Here's a question. What is the world going to do the the billions of 3000 pound metal objects no longer provide a service?
Like having a steamlocomotive in your front yard without track. Just sitting like a flower planter.
What are we going to do with the cars?
I bet they will be stripped, For example there's tons of little motors for raising windows, now one may drive my tracker for my solar hot water collector...
Technology taken apart and reused in new functions.
But, still billions will die of course. We're in overshoot.
"Rig up a press with a donkey, and you can produce enough veg oil to run a diesel generator, and enough to fuel the truck to get it into town."
Or use it in oil lamps and ride the donkey to town. This is where we are going folks. The journey from here to there is ugly and most of us will not survive, but that is where we are going.
I back your argument LevinK
I challange anyone in position to do the energy-account on an EROEI basis for PV - to do this right away.
I guess the final answer would be shocking in PVs disfavor. They are prone to depletion during 2 decades - and huge substitution programmes have to be sceduled costing unknown $$$$.
In the future they have to make the PVs from the PV-energy itself !! Would this be possible in the real world ?
Or anyone who know of any such accounting done ? (link?)
I've seen EROEI's In the 6:1 to 30:1 ratio.
http://www.jeffvail.net/2006/11/energy-payback-from-photovoltaics.html
Jeff's now a 'voice' here on TOD, so perhaps you can ask him to contribute.
I challange anyone in position to do the energy-account on an EROEI basis for PV - to do this right away.
How ab out this version of a 'challenge':
Assumptions:
We'd like an energy source that can be renewed over many generations of man. Land mass conservation is a given as governments tax you on land and the conversion of land -> money to pay taxes is an issue to address. Work/effort to process the cfaptured energy matters in the calculation. At present the time to create the energy source has little value- all the 'value' is in the release of the energy. If one wishes to do a 'true' energy analysis, the time to get a material to a state to be reacted to obtain work should have value also.
Observations:
The Sun, expressed as photons is an energy source which can be called 'renewable' over many generations of humans.
The capture and use of a photon in the most direct way is better than steps of indirection.
If the shortest path of photons to 'work' is capturing the photon and using it...PV panels are a winner. So are things like evacuated glass tubes for capturing heat.
http://www.btfsolar.com/specifications.htm
The 'analysis' all depends on what you consider important and how you opt to make the calculations.
An accounting of photons to plant matter:
http://www.theoildrum.com/user/eric+blair
In the future they have to make the PVs from the PV-energy itself !! Would this be possible in the real world ?
The solar plant that BP now owns that was in one of the Eastern states used to talk about how they covered the company with the 'reject' PV cells and was a 'solar breeder reactor' or some such self-hype'n video.
thanks eric blair - I will look into your submitted links -
BUT (right away) I'am doubtfull that the full EROEI/energy picture is painted for PVs as of 2007.
Im thinking of the full mining operation, blastings, drilling, cruching and so forth just for the silicon based rock - transport, excavation, .... it all "done" with electric power in the future.
Not to speak of the processing energy-expenditures in the PV plant itself, and .... so forth ....
I posted this (or a closely related) link last week.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf (PDF.. not huge) NREL has a few published studies that back this up.
PV recovers its embedded energy, down to the aluminum framing, in as little as 12-18 months. Panels regularly are sold with warranties of 20 and 25 years, and owners have reported degradations of less than 20% in that amount of time. Depending on the rebates if any, and the utility rates, people can justify the entire installations in anywhere from 6 to 20 years, leaving them FREE electricity from that point on.. they may have to replace batteries and inverters more frequently than panels, but it at least DOES repay its investment in well-under its lifespan.
http://www.homepower.com/files/pvpayback.pdf
It's a good, steady and sturdy source of electricity. Merely a BB, not a silver bullet, but it's a good BB.
Bob Fiske
IS THE ENERGY ISSUE CALLED OFF ? ELECTRIC CARS FOR ALL ?
Well if this claim hold water - there is NO ENERGY CRISIS EVER FOR THIS PLANET ........ because silicon-rock is not the problem !
They have to start yesterday - Install ONE REALY BIG PV-farm - nearby some silicon sources and go ahead ......
Start to zillion-rouple these things .. and spread the message. Tanzania is using 1/350-part of energy as compared the pr capita of my own country - and they shower in sunshine !
I dont understand why somebody just tell them to go ahead -
By the way - How do they turn the the silicon-mountain into fine and purified dust (?) by electic power all by itself.
Just because we're accustomed to diesel-powered earth-moving equipment doesn't mean that electrically powered earth-moving equipment can't be used. These things don't move far from home-base, so you just run them in shifts like a forklift. I worked in a warehouse once upon a time, we had an electric forklift, and we never had a problem with it running all day, you just plugged it in at night. Obviously if you're doing it with solar, you'd have two machines, one that charges one day, and then the other the next.
Actually, hopefully you'd just have two (or three) battery packs. It's like an RC car, just on a bigger scale.
Garth
Underground coal mining can, and is, done with 100% electricity today. And the transportation from the pit can be electrified as well.
Hard rock mining, unlike underground coal, may very well require explosives, but these are often nitrate based and Iceland had an ammonia fertilizer factory that operated off of air, water and electricity.
We are still over a lifetime away from 100% renewable production. I would be quite happy with 95& - 98% in the near future. Solar PV looks "good". Wind turbines look even "better" to me and hydroelectric better still.
Best Hopes,
alan
I'm inclined to like hydroelectric except where and how it does decimate fish migrations for spawning. Electricity is a wonderfully useful luxury, but if in the process we push valuable fish species (providing human sustenance and earthly wonder) to extinction, what's the point of a having a light in such a hell.
There are no more suitable spots on this planet for grand scale hydro-power. Most are already in use -
Use Google earth and browse the planet and you see what I mean.
Afterall I have my info from some serious sources, it is commonly accepted that big-hydro is maxed out, apart from grand Inga and maybe a few other places .... today they scramble small-scale hy-power for all it is worth ... think again.
As fossil fuels dwindle - panic will grow - the" law of the jungl"e will come to a street corner near you ...
AlanfromBigEasy......supplied from PV's made 100% from PV's ....?
all the best
Paal,
Having completely run out of new books to read (fiction, at least), I've been re-reading some of my favorite writers.
Edward Abbey in "The Monkeywrench Gang" goes into quite elaborate detail (Honestly, today, he would be prosecuted as a terrorist and sent to Guantanamo. Our country's (USA), values, and 'national dialogue are so F&%$cked up) about neutralizing big-time coal operations that are both HUGE and FULLY ELECTRIC.
Yes, I do recall some diesel fuel trucks coming in at off-hours to fill a few things up, but the big machines and the rail links were ALL ELECTRIC!
Im not questioning the ability to make huge electic machinery - that they do and is easy( in todays petro and coalplant/smelting industry)
My question on PVs goes "long into the future" so to speak -
Will they be able to run smelters to make those big machines .... fuel them from PVs ...... AND finally maintain the full loop of an PV-economy so to speak ... I guess that account is not yet done - and keep in mind PVs are depleted in 20-25 years of operation.
All energy production deplet someting -
- Mass/volumes are burnt (gas(soline), coal,wood ... or the scattering of Nukes)
- PVs are penetrated by photons which kicks away electrons over time .... and thus degrading them (making holes - such that the current reduces)
-Hydro/Generators/windturbunes - are "depleted" by mechanical friction and degraded this way ...
energy is a tricky game - and it is much more limited than previousely thougth - at least seen from my part of town
"In the future they have to make the PVs from the PV-energy itself !!"
Isn't that kind a like charging your batteries by using a solar panel under fluorescent lights.
No, not unless it's a huge, free fluorescent light that turns on for about half the day, every day.
This isn't like the wind-turbine that runs a fan that blows on the wind turbine.
Paar's 'depletion' argument is missing a bunch of the devilish details.. such as the idea that a Silicon Solar Cell depletes as the photons 'punch' holes in the material every time an electron is moved. The way PV deteriorates is from oxidation of the optically clear sealing layer above the silicon, making it lose its transparency, and allowing oxygen and moisture in to corrode the electrical junctions between individual cells. PV mfrs are already setting up PV recycling, and so this material will live far longer than it's first panels' lifespans.
The suggestion that PV panels are 'depleted' in 25 years is again off the mark. Some of the panels first created are still producing after 50 years. The falloff may 'start' to be signifigant (20-40%) after 25 or 30 years, but others have had panels still producing up to 90% of original spec after 30 yrs. Very Few power sources could hope to make such a claim.
I wonder whether Jatropha would make sense for Africa. The per-capita consumption is relatively small.
Some studies show that it may be possible to de-desertifiy via the planting of Jatropha. A long to benefit - but you 'd have to get humans willing to engage in such a behavior.
"What will happen then when the poorest nations on earth are almost totally without electricity while richer nations still bask in the glow of coal and nuclear generated power?"
That's an easy one. They will experience famine and starvation(and probably a pandemic) until their population drops below the level sustainable by a region with no fossil fuel imput. Normally this transition would be quick and they would come out on the other side with those still living enjoying a more sustainable way of life. Unfortunately, Western Nations trying to help will provide aid, turning a quick die-off into a never ending hell, as we have done throughout the world for decades. It will only be when there is no one in a position to provide aid, that nature will finally be able to take her course.
According to Richard Duncan's definitions, Senegal never left the Olduvai gorge. Their per capita energy usage is well below the threshold of qualifying as an industrial society, as defined by Duncan.
From your article:
The problems of Africa stem more from bad governance, and the inability to create a viable economy, than anything else. Oil prices have been low for most of the period since 1960, so the failure of most African countries to even qualify as "industrial society" (according to Duncan's definition) is most probably not due to recent high oil prices.
How can you tell a person making $2 a day to invest? Are you crazy or just heartless?
I'd be cautious about that. Senegal, Africa, like Nigeria. The World Bank, "terms of trade" a.k.a. technology, transfer entropy from the periphery to feed the core. What if the problem is that Africa has been unable to stand up to industrial world? That would be both a "Guns, Germs and Steel" and a thermodynamics of economy argument. It's fashionable for rich white (neo)liberals to blame poor coloreds for their incompetance. That it seems to work out that way over and over strikes me as just an updated version of "white man's burden" and blaming the victim. What's the solution? Usually something like the proposed Iraqi oil laws. lip service to lifting the poor out of poverty, and forced acceptance of increased resource extraction.
cfm in Gray, ME
Good show Dryki,
If there is anything in Africa that survives Global Warming and if we are reduced to beggars unable to raise the energy to steal them blind and generally interfere with their affairs maybe they will be eventually pull it together again. As for our governments 'aid' it is a wonder anyone is still alive there that hasn't been strangled to death by the strings we attach to it.
And then along came AIDS
Here is Stephan Lewis's foundation link:
http://www.stephenlewisfoundation.org/
And Wiki link about Lewis:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Lewis
Take a hankerchief if you go to listen to this guy speak about Africa.
Diary of a economic hitman, World Bank. IMF very interesting effects.
This one is good on the replenisment of the core.
The Material Basis of Accumulation
By Stan Goff
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/120604_material_accumulation.s...
Or this one with JOE STIGLITZ, WINNER OF THE NOBEL PRIZE IN ECONOMICS
The Globalizer Who Came In From the Cold
http://www.gregpalast.com/the-globalizer-who-came-in-from-the-cold
As I pointed out a few days ago there is a conundrum here. We see reports of energy problems in Africa, and the assumption is constantly made that demand destruction must be happening there.
And yet as the World Bank recently reported GDP growth in Africa was the best in 20 years in 2006.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200705140004.html
Is this not unexpected? If things were so bad in Africa surely growth should now be in trouble? Granted Africa will be doing well off the back of the commodity boom (simple extractative industries) but is this the only reason behind the 5.5% growth? Or are we reading too much into particular stories?
When I lived in Zambia in the early 70s shortages of various staples (sometimes petrol) were a fact of life and were generally down to failures in the supply chain rather than in the actual product disappearing.
Read the article, Andy. It's a few nations driving the growth and much of it is because of oil in places like Nigeria. In fact, the predicted growth from 5% to 7% is supposed to come from oil. The rest of Africa has so little "economy" that there's not much to measure against it but there are still hundreds of millions living in poverty.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I am sorry Greyzone but that simply won't do.
The article states that net oil importers had growth of 5.2% (sure lower than exporters but not by that much), and notes countries such as Ghana and Sierra Leone with rates of 6.1% and 7.4% (both non oil). One of the source documents makes it very plain that the non-oil exporters have been growing at some of the best rates in recent years:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/27/45/38563285.pdf
You might also note that countries such as Zimbabwe 'artificially' pull net growth rates down for non-oil producing Africa.
As I said above the boom in non oil commodities must be helping but I still find it very odd that some of the end is nigh articles about Africa are being held up as biblical, when there is verifiable evidence out there that African growth rates are by recent standards relatively good.
Sorry this isn't as tidy as a WTO whitewash but here is stuff on a two minute run at google that I am sure you will consider unverifiable.
Africa is finished.
It went 'biblical' twenty odd years ago.
I was based in Egypt about the time that pop stars were singing 'do they know its christmas?'
No they fucking didnt then. And they dont fucking know it now
Down by the southern border, you could see it. Smell it.
Africa's destiny is to get worse. First. Then other countries and continents later.
Look at Africa and see your future.
Ah, the fundamental doomer equation:
Does everyone here believe the world is really that simple?
Bob,
Answer to first blue blob:
As I understand it a 2 degree centigrade world temp rise will result in a temperature increase that will be no longer effected by any remedial actions on our part, Africa is and will experience climate change first and worst . Doom is probably more in your/our hands than in Africa...don't need equations, we don't even need a gypsy palm reader. It is simpler than that, just need eyes in the head.
2nd blue blob:
No it's a bit more complex than that and you should be red faced to set up such pathetic straw men. Sail and European/British exploitation started it. Coal and oil merely sped it up. Current global corporatism is is finishing it off. Sorry to be so simplistic here but life and time are short.
It is overcast here and rainy and all, so thanks for something stupid to take it out on, something simple.
BTW Bob is one of my favorite names, my best cousins name and also I have a friend named Robert Roberts which translates to Bob Bob. German family changed their name during the war, I have no idea why they would change it to Roberts with son called Robert, but then nothing is simple is it?
My understanding is that Africa is doing about half economically of what it did 30 years ago. I wonder if the time window matters? Commodities - the price of coffee is so depressed by the big four coffee cartel - that farmers are ripping up coffee to grow kat (sp) for local consumption.
cfm in Gray, ME
Is "kat" a local phrase for marijuana? When I was in Africa, Kenya to be specific a number of years ago, I not only noticed it growing in small backyard lots, but smelled it being smoked too. If I was stuck in Africa perhaps being stoned all the time might be the way to go.
Everything about Qat/khat/kat
http://www.africa.upenn.edu/Hornet/qat.html
Google Is Great,
Not Marijuana, but the same
Ed
mispost, sorry
Qat is a wonderful Scrabble word, but it sounds more like cocaine than weed in its effects. Now the US has given it an economic boost by classifying it as a narcotic it will probably make it to my neighborhood soon, and yours too!
Adam Smith's invisible hand is finally starting to make the sound of one hand clapping. Just not the best one maybe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand
Some numbers on Africa, from "Global Banquet", shown tonight at local library, average personal income:
cfm in Gray, ME
"Global Blanket" says that Africa is a victim of globalization, i.e. it's resources have been plundered by the West. Therefore, they are agreeing with my assertion that other factors, apart from lack of oil, are the reason for their impoverished state.
Bob,
What is this obsession of yours about oil? Anyway I look through the pipeline and conclude that it isn't their lack of oil but our surplus of oil that has done Africa in.
BTW don't worry you have company, there are plenty here who seem to be very obsessed by oil, damned if I know what they will do when it's gone...probably invent it? BTW what do you think of bio-diesel?