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There was a comment posted yesterday, I think by Tech Guy, about CNBC reporting that some gasoline barges had been diverted from the Northeast US to the South, to head off a possible emergency shortage of gasoline in the south.
As I have repeatedly stated, IMO, what we have seen worldwide in the past two years or so is progressive demand destruction, with forced energy conservation gradually moving up the food chain.
We are conditioned to think that all supply shortfalls are temporary, because historically a shortfall in total oil supply caused a price increase, which caused a falloff in demand and an increase in supply, resulting in a price decline. However, what we saw in Texas and the Lower 48 was declining oil production following a 1,000% increase in oil prices from 1970 to 1980.
The world is now, based on our HL models, where the Lower 48 was at in 1972, on the downslope of the Hubbert's peak. So, what we are going to see, in regard to conventional oil production, is a steady decline in production.
As I have repeatedly stated, it is way past time to begin "Thinking outside the box." While it may not be the "solution," (because there really isn't a solution--all we can do is to try to avoid the worst case scenarios), at least Alan Drake is advocating a credible plan, using technology that we more or less perfected over 100 years ago.
As I have repeatedly stated, it is way past time to begin "Thinking outside the box." While it may not be the "solution," (because there really isn't a solution...,
I'm feeling the same way. There are no solutions in my mind. After reading the recent posts by GuilderGlider, Francois Cellier, and Stuart Staniford, along with the bevvy of media articles lately proclaiming collapse (see today's DrumBeat for examples), I'm less and less convinced in the depths of my heart that preparation does any good.
The current events of late have induced me into much soul-searching, and my perspective on life has changed drastically. I used to think that the ultimate goal in my life was furthering my genetic line by raising healthy successful children to continue the line (instinctive, no?). So far, so good (with two young boys), but I'm feeling more and more that so much of their future (knowing how to help them prepare for it) is out of my hands. It's heartbreaking.
Sometimes I'll stop and watch them, doing their thing, and I get choked up thinking about the wretched mess they're going to experience. I have a hard time not resenting the fortunate lives my parents have known. But we can't choose our window of existence, so I've resolved to experience the joys of my life as fully as I can with the hope that I'll be grateful for each day no matter what it brings.
I have no idea what skills my kids are going to need to succeed in the future. One skill I am working to teach them is the ability to face life with a sense of awe and a sense of humor. Regardless of the events, these skills should come in handy.
Tom A-B
Just not funny anymore is it?
'No more glad, confident morning'.
Well said - I experience the same feelings. On the other hand, I think that the collapse of our society will be the major theme of the rest of our lives, and our children’s lives too. It's the lot we drew, and we may as well accept it. I figure that while very bad things may be happening, there will still be time for joy in the things that matter - like your family. Our children will eventually have to make their own way in life, with whatever befalls them. And we should not loose sight of the fact that the things that bring real happiness are not necessarily the things we grew up with – there can be happiness without oil and excessive energy consumption.
I think that for those of us lucky enough to live a long time, when we look back we will be both surprised at how fast some things changed, and amazed at the resilience of other parts.
Perhaps the most important preparation is to remain mentally agile, be alert and ready to make changes as called for. Essentially, embrace the coming changes, and don’t cling to obsolete thought processes. I have a long way to go in this regard, but I’ve been trying hard for the last couple of years (my wife too), and I am regularly surprised at how many ways I’ve been able to reorient my thinking. Casting off old interests that have become irrelevant, and moving farther from the habits/conventions/beliefs generally accepted by our consumption oriented society has become a source of enjoyment. It’s a challenge of re-inventing myself, while still being me.