143 comments on Financial bubble - who will say that the emperor is naked?
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
You know, when the doomsters made their predictions in the 70s, they were writing about 70 years of oil left - we're still pretty much in that time frame, except that we've wasted 20 years in the last 30 in a senseless last splurge. It has indeed lasted a lot longer than pretty much everybody expected (but so did the dotcom bubble, if you remember that time. I was also one of the bears then, and I was long mocked), but it will come to an end - and in fact, the longer it goes, the more painful it will end.
Look at this and tell me it will not end in tears:
I agree that it will come to an end. But my point is that no one knows when. Take it from someone who has lost a lot of money on put options.
Correction: no one knows exactly when. But we know it ain't gonna be ten years from now, and it almost certainly won't be five, and it is very unlikely to be three, and it's unlikely to be two, and it may not be even one, and it just could be very soon, and there's a chance it could be very, very soon.
Credentials? I've been predicting the coming collapse since 1959. A lesser person would have lost all self-confidence.
"Credentials? I've been predicting the coming collapse since 1959. A lesser person would have lost all self-confidence."
Dave, you think your good, I've predicted 6 of the last 4 recessions!
That's 150% accuracy! Well, by my math anyway....:-)
RC
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
One blog I'd like to recommend to both you and Jerome is interfluidity, the weblog of Steve Randy Waldman. It seems to me he is among the most pessimistic of the really good econ-bloggers (leaving out Jerome for a moment!) He's written a lot of insightful articles on shorting, and troubles with our current market mechanisms, derivative markets in particular.
Here's one he wrote on the ethics of shorting:
http://www.interfluidity.com/posts/1143383914.shtml
Jerome, in the financial world nothing is obvious. If you think otherwise you are going to lose a lot of money.
Five years ago, OPECs stated goal was to maintain the price of oil between $22-$28 per barrel. People thought that oil at $35 per barrel was a calamity. Here we are at $70 per barrel and the global economy is doing fine. Yeah I know that Senegal and Nepal are beginning to have problems, but most people thought that even the economies of developed world would take a big hit above $40/barrel.
So what prediction would you have made for the financial markets if you knew in 2002 that the price of oil was going to be around $70 per barrel in 2007?
We all know that debt cannot grow forever and oil will not last forever, but no one can use that to time the collapse of financial markets. It could last a lot longer than most people here imagine.
Hi Suyog,
Thanks and
re: "It could last a lot longer than most people here imagine."
I'm wondering...do you see any possibilities for anything other than collapse?
If so, could you share?