73 comments on API Conference Call on Gas Prices
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GAIA Host Collective
As I understand it, the problems associated with rail profitability in this country stem from actions taken by Detroit automakers, the oil companies, and trucking unions to impose extraordinary and deliberately harmful regulations on rail during the 1920s. These regulations have largely remained intact since then coupled with the freebies that auto/truck transport gets (the subsidies like property tax free rights of way). Rail regulation needs a clear headed review from top to bottom, with a particular eye towards European and Asian rail systems and what works elsewhere. Only when the regulatory burden is equal can the API make a statement that trucking and automotive use is more economical.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I agree.
California is now trying to get a waiver on some passenger rail regs that will improve economics and operations. Supposedly, if this works, it will have national implications.
Unfortunately, I am not an expert on the delat between US, EU and Japanese rail regulations, but I know people that are :-)
Best Hopes for "The Rule of Reason" in regulations,
Alan
Well, here's the "Reason". Publicity and hysteria go up exponentially with the number of deaths in a single incident:
3000 deaths in auto accidents: yawn. Happens every day (worldwide.) Move on, please.
3000 deaths ten or twenty at a time in bus crashes: local publicity for some days; wider publicity perhaps for a news cycle, if children died.
3000 deaths 200 at a time in plane crashes: worldwide publicity and incessant news crawls for several days for each crash. Hundreds of millions spent by regulators dissecting causes.
3000 deaths all at once at WTC: worldwide publicity and incessant analysis for next several decades. Toss existing legal systems into trash and remake entire world.
Pardon my cynicism, but the overregulation that follows naturally from this sort of thinking is one more reason why I think the US Constitution had the right idea (long since abandoned) in setting up a limited government.
I agree as well, but I think the problem with transport policy is pretty fundamental. Literally billions and billions of dollars of public money has been spent on roads, and they are not taxed. The government has the power to expropriate for road expansion, and incremental projects ($10 million here, $10 million there, soon you're talking real money) go on endlessly. On the flip side, the railways must own, build and maintain their right of way with their own funds, and then property tax is assessed as well, and... is anyone surprised at the end result? What do you think the value of land taken by a 10 lane highway is compared to a two track railway? How easy is it to compete against a subsidized operation?
Think of it another way: an intermodal train can carry (easily) 400 containers. Never mind the energy efficiency advantage, what kind of manpower is required to move 400 trailers by truck? (And how much does it cost to repair the roads that are used for such purposes...) How on earth did we get to a state that trucking is economically competitive over long distances?*
It makes no sense, unless you consider the subsidies. You get what you pay for, and North Americans especially are paying for roads.
*I'm not suggesting trucks carrying containers necessarily go long distances, but there are many situations for which a container could have been loaded rather than a "standard" truck trailer. Consider long-distance house movers, for example.
Hi JustZizGuy
Railroads were initially subsidised to build lines, both the Federal Government and the State of Texas gave away huge amounts of the public lands to build tract. Texas, since it was a sovereign republic before annexation in 1845, retained all unpatented lands in its borders. The railroads were in the land speculation business as well as the transportation business.
Railroads have common carrier status under the law. In other words, they can condemn lands just like a government can for right-of-way. So can pipelines and electric utilities for that matter.
Since they constructed the Railroads with essentially a grant and have profited at the public trough for 150 years, I have a hard time feeling sorry for them. They abused labor and farmers for many years, they are card-carrying members of the corporatocracy that runs the U.S.A..The Railroads are possibly a saviour of our "non-negotiable lifestyle", but expect them to operate in their own interest, not the people's.
If you'd like to read further about these land grants, check out "The Handbook of Texas" online, as well as the history of The Texas Railroad Commission on their website. I'm a landman in Texas, and I've read about this bit of history for years, and it is within my area of professional expertise here in Texas.
I'm pulling for a US railroad renaissance all the way, and would love nothing better than to see Alan's slate of rail projects get moved to the front of the national agenda, but it's also true that US railroads were the (Exxon/ Microsoft/ WalMart/ Halliburton/ pick your favorite corporate villain) of their day.
For an excellent account of all that, see 'Hear That Lonesome Whistle Blow' by Dee Brown (who did sublimely righteous pissed-offedness better than any other historian I've ever read... )
Mike C
rail and bike fan in Boston
I'm well aware that huge land grants were given to railways. There didn't used to be an Interstate Highway System either. I'm talking about more recent history.
I don't know how things are in Texas, but railways in Canada do not profit "at the public trough". Of course companies will operate in their own best interests - that's a good argument for public railways, not for subsidizing roads. Why the completely different status for railroad versus road? If public subsidies and planning apply to roads, why not to rails? If private capital and planning and land is the best way, why aren't roads all private?
(If you want an example of an absolutely enormous land grant, check out the E&N Railway on Vancouver Island. Nearly one third of the entire land was given to the company. Nowadays, in more recent history, you have the provincial government spending billions of dollars on highways - $1.4 billion on one highway project alone - and the railway no longer operates.)
The railroads don't continue to feed at the public trough, they've been nudged away by the other hogs. But since they have no capital invested in their rights-of-way except maintainence and repair, ad valorem taxes are fair. In Texas these are the major support for our schools, counties and cities, the state has no ad valorem tax. There's an excellent arguement that they should be public. I agree, but I'm a communist.
Our fearless Governor and State Legislaure are building a huge , new Transportation Corridor, funded by a private toll road company. Its supposed to run from Laredo to San Antonio, Austin and Dallas and also from Houston to Dallas. Its going to supercede the interstates and have high speed rail lines, Electrical Grid pipelines as well as new Highways. I haven't paid any attention to how they are funding it, possibly bond guarantees. I'm sure they all plan to get richer from the scheme, and I'll help pay for it. Sometimes being a Texan really sucks.
Short bit of history.
Generally, railroad ROWs west of the Mississippi (basically) were given away to build 5 East-West transcontinental railroads PLUS alternating sections (section = 1 square mile) in a checkerboard next to the 100' wide ROW. In return, the US Gov't got a discount on cargoes shipped on the railroad.
After WW II, the RRs got Congress to repeal the discount, noting that they had "paid" for the ROW and land several times over (neglecting to calculate interest). I assume that if one calculates interest against a steady income stream (with a massive payment during WW II), that the railroads just about "paid" for their ROW and land with cut rate freight and passenger charges to the US Gov't.
And the railroads WERE seen as the robber barons of their age, when they had a monopoly on transportation. Given the large number of RR bankruptcies in the 1800s and early 1900s, I am unsure how much truth there was to that.
Some railroads were (and UP still is) quite arrogant in their behavior, pricing, etc. and NOT "good neighbors". But bad PR does not necessarily = robber baron.
Alan
We need to (re)build the railroads as a key part of public infrastructure. That means public ownership. There should be noisy and contentious public meetings where the public decides where the rails and stations go. I'd like to see them - at least the smaller commuter type rail and interurbans - set up as community investment trusts or co-ops. More or less along the lines of rural electrics or the blues before they got privatized. The structure of the ownership is going to matter a great deal. They are going to have to be subsidized; the free market is not going to do what's necessary.
cfm in Gray, ME
This year the freight railroads are investing $10 billion in infrastructure improvements. The best "bang for the buck" in increasing capacity is improved signaling (decidedly NOT sexy).
I know someone who worked on extending electrification on Amtrak's (they own it) NorthEast Corridor from New Haven to Boston. As a public entity, those meetings you want added several years to implementation of a "slam dunk" decision to build.
Given the track record (pun intended) of Amtrak and the same solution in the UK (public tracks, private trains), I cannot support public ownership of mainline railroads.
Th story in Alaska (the state that gives annual rebates to their citizens) is a mixed bag for the Alaskan Railroad (Fairbanks-Anchorage).
When Japan Rail was broken up and privatized, it was an outstanding success (no real disagreement).
This is a critical issue for the survival of this country ! I do *NOT* want to screw it up with social experimentation. I would not want to depend upon Amtrak freight to get the essentials of life.
For branch lines that were about to be abandoned (see Wisconsin), I can see public ownership of the tracks, but they are slow to fix that as well (still 1/2 1920s track).
Best Hopes,
Alan
The US freight railroad industry has been quite innovative and is a world leader (despite a lack of electrification). Double stack containers, the heaviest axle loadings and heaviest rail in the world (other than an isolated mine in Australia).
The failure to get the projected freight through the Chunnel has been blamed on the French SNCF. They handle voters quite well, but freight is a real weakness for them. New reforms that allow others to use their tracks may add frieght volume to EU railroads.
Amtrak is the not the scale I'm talking about; I'm talking about local commuter and interurban rail. And yes, it will add a lot of time, even for local systems. The alternative, however, is having some "official" decide. You tell me what's working in NOLA, the "officials" or the locals? Power has to be coincident with the biosphere/community; otherwise what you have will be taken by those "officials" and their goons.
That, of course, is Cheney's solution. All the "right people" will come out on top.
cfm in Gray, ME
I would think that moving shipping to rail would cut a substantial amount of diesel usage and create a market surplus. I don't know anything about petroleum refineries, but I thought that diesel was a bi-product of gasoline refining. I can't believe the oil industry would be interested in cutting trucking and the diesel demand. Shipping could be moved from diesel trucking to rail, rail could easily be moved to NG over electric.
Passenger vehicles could be moved to diesel.
Without an incentive to put more passenger diesel vehicles on the road, there is no incentive to move shipping from trucks to more efficient rail. Diesel engines are substantially more expensive to manufacture than gasoline and that is reflected in the vehicle purchase price. The retail diesel price locally has been close to the gasoline price and there is no justification for the extra capital expense of a diesel vehicle.
This is the type of thing that needs the government to step in on. A rebate for diesel vehicles, an incentive for rail to go to NG or even a plug-in hybrid scheme and tax the crap out of trucking.
If you meant diesel is a byproduct of refining, not so. However, with some effort, you can convert diesel to gasoline.
Also, diesel engines are inherently more efficient than gasoline ICEs, so there is a justification for their existence.
I have owned a lot of diesel construction/farm equipment and heavy trucks. One of my favorite diesel engines was a JD 4cyl, I wish I had one in my small truck, but there is no way a diesel conversion makes financial sense in a small low annual mileage passenger vehicle.
As a really bad example a VW Touareg. The gas V6 is $38K MSRP, V8 $43K and the V10 diesel is $59K. The fuel MPG from the brochure isn't a stunning improvement over the gas: 16/20,14/19,17/22
Why would I buy the diesel?
The 1 MPG saving isn't significant.
Diesel at the pump here is $0.92/L, gas is $1.25/L.
I have an older S10 pickup and a Saturn SL1. If I was going to replace either one and was making a decision on a small diesel, it's going to be $5K more than a comparable gas. This is an extremely conservative number and there aren't that many diesel vehicles available.
Assuming I can get 10 Imp. MPG better efficiency from the diesel. At 40 MPG gas, 50 MPG diesel. This comes out to $8.75/100km gas and $5.15/100km diesel. To make up the $5000 capital difference at $3.60/100km I have to drive 138,000 km.
I only have 130,000 km on our Saturn and it's a 1999. We just don't drive that much.
There is a wider price spread right now, but last year diesel pushed up close to the gas price and could do it again, which would make that even worse.
In larger high mileage trucks it makes economic sense. In small low annual mileage cars, you can't justify the capital cost.
If there is no incentive to go to a diesel vehicle, very few people will do it.
Your figures are from CURRENT model availability which is evidence of LACK thereof.
A larger supply of small and efficient diesels would drive down the price of those vehicles. Fully a third of the European private car fleet is diesel powered and successfully so, I might add, with more and more choices coming on line every year in the small car category.
How do THEY manage it?
Furthermore, let me cite the plumbing industry, which has embraced one particular model, the "Sprinter". The switch from the heavy gasoline powered service pickups and vans to the Sprinter has leveraged a very significant savings to local plumbers all over the USA....and this is just one industry, one model vehicle, and this vehicle is large but equipped with a SMALL (3.0 liter) engine.
I'm with you, small diesels are great. We have one in a backhoe that will run for days on 10 gal doing trenching. My nephew has a diesel powered arc welder on his truck that is the same.
Canada had a lot of LPG gasoline conversions 10 years ago. It was substantially cheaper at that time. The demand for LPG went up and so did the retail price and now it no longer makes sense to do the conversion. Supposedly not putting butane into summer gas makes it more expensive, but they are selling the butane in LPG for as much as summer gas.
Anything that is cheap for the consumer at the moment, whether it's corn or cellulose for an ethanol plant, silicon for PV or a consumer fuel is only cheap until demand increases. That's capitalism and why I believe the solar thermal is the only way out of the energy mess. You can't come up with a scheme that relies on something that is cheap now, it won't stay that way when demand increases.
Ethanol production increases and corn went from $2 to $4/bu. and will hit $5/bu. D'oh! Ethanol guys never saw that coming. Let's build a cellulosic ethanol from straw/stover plant.. woops they don't want to give us biomass for free. Let's convert passenger vehicles to diesel, NG, LPG or anything else...
Darn. The price went up with demand. As Mr. Young put it:
Keep on rockin' in the free world.
The difference between the gasoline and diesel models is, I bet, not solely the engine. You're also comparing completely different things - that V10 diesel is an outrageously outrageous bit of outrageousness. It has more torque than is really, well, what you might call necessary. Unless you're towing a 747:
http://www.autoblog.com/2006/11/22/touareg-v10-tdi-tows-a-747/
Take a more reasonable example. The premium for a VW Golf TDI over the gasoline model was $1500 Cdn in 2000. The difference in fuel economy was approximately 6L/100 km versus about 9 (mostly city driving). The price of diesel and gasoline has varied widely over that period, but diesel has always been at or below the price of gasoline. Let's make it simple (and biased against the diesel) and assume the prices were always the same. 3L extra fuel per 100 km means on average an extra $3 per 100 km (nowadays it's more than that, years ago it was less than that...I'm averaging). To cover the capital cost difference you would have to travel 50000 km. Over that time you'd have to see which engine cost less to maintain as well, but the point remains that it is possible to recover the difference in initial cost through fuel savings alone in a reasonable time. As you can probably guess, I own a 2000 VW TDI. Your definition of "not driving much" may be accurate for the prairies or for most USians, but my definition is this: our car has yet to hit 70,000 km.
The efficiency difference is not overwhelming, so I agree that the economics are not strongly in favour of the diesel at current prices. Guess which way I think prices are headed? :-)
More to the point, I like the 1000 km (600 mile) range per tank, and I just like burning less fuel for the sake of burning less fuel for the same task. Some people spend $1500 on a sunroof and leather seats. I think it makes more sense to invest it in burning fuel less rapidly.
(Though I would still like to be able to burn no fuel... hydroelectric generation plus battery-electric car, plus a far better public transit system, is what I'd like.)
btw, currently diesel here is $1.019/L, gasoline is I think $1.249/L.
I picked a bad example with the touareg and as far as mileage, in the first 3 years with the car I used to do 4 200km round trips per month and put the first 100,000km on the car. The other 30,000k are in the last 4 years. I drive my truck to work and a wee bit more and have put less than 5000km/year on it since I got it.
My whole point from above is that for consumer vehicles to switch to diesel, there has to be an incentive. It's probably not cheaper to maintain a diesel and it takes a while to recover the capital investment for people that are miserly with their driving. It would do wonders if they applied a tax on gas engines and a rebate on diesel engines to make it more attractive on a new vehicle purchase.
Makes more sense than banning incandescent lightbulbs in Canada.
It would do wonders if they applied a tax on gas engines and a rebate on diesel engines to make it more attractive on a new vehicle purchase.
Such a scheme has actually been in place in Norway since 1.1.2007 when the registration fee for new vehicles was reworked to favor vehicles with low CO2-emissions.
Since then, new car sales has been something like 80-90% diesel (although that's probably artificially high from deferred purchases of diesel cars).
The US passenger vehicle avg. mpg. was 25 mpg in 2003.
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/energy/i/cafe_standards.htm
This includes car and SUV; gas and diesel engines. Now that there is clean US diesel fuel availble the diesel market will start to open up in the US. My 2002 Honda Civic got 40 mpg on the highway, but was rated for 39 mpg. A Saturn gasoline engine does not get 40 mpg. anywhere. When I bought my car gasoline cost $1.25 a gallon. There was no great gas savings in paying more for a gas saving Civic, the savings are apparent today + it was easier to find parking in the city.
The diesel cars get 50-60 mpg. One new prototype is supposed to get 63 mpg. My brother has a Volkswagon diesel and was able to use recycled vegetable oil in the tank or regular diesel. They are cheaper than hybrids and there are no batteries to replace. The diesel engine was supposed to last longer than a gasoline combustion engine.
Transport Canada rated the 1999 Saturn SL1 at 5.7L/100km highway, 8.7 city (40/27 US mpg), (48/32 CDN mpg) for auto, the 5 speed manual is a bit better. This is about the same as a 2002 Civic highway at 5.5/7.3 std and 5.8/7.9 auto. The city mileage is a bit better in the Civic.
The basic problem is that we have socialist roads (we don't call them that but they are) but not socialist railroads. Most countries have socialst both.
There is actually a better way which has rarely if ever been tried: Save each mode of transport set up as a public-owned cooperative, with a directly elected board of trustees. All modes of transport would operate on a level playing field as far as tax policy and regulation and funding are concerned. People can vote for their preference in the tradeoff between quality of service and price of service.
The problem is that to get from here to there we would have to go through the nationalization process, then the government would have to hand off the control to an elected board. The first will not happen in the US except under extreme circumstances; the second doesn't happen anywhere because governments don't like to cede power.
“Save each mode of transport set up as a public-owned cooperative, with a directly elected board of trustees.” Posted by WNC Observer
The problem is, if these boards are elected, they will end up as dysfunctional and useless as the US government. Elections are ALL ABOUT WINNING and nothing else. If the board is elected, genuine, intellectually honest discussion and consideration of the issues and practical responses become impossible; the admen, hucksters, spin doctors and campaign contributors will keep the public sufficiently confused to ensure the election of board members loyal to whatever the special interest groups of the day are. I hate to think of what would have happened to Cuba after they lost the oil from Russia if they had had our system of government.
Antoinetta III