The Oil Drum

So, what you are saying ThatsIt is keep on wasting energy, don't try to control demand, just keep pumping out babies and automobiles, just in case some trader might make some big bucks during some large fluctuation in the overall trend towards peak.

Very smart.

This penchant for insisting that the peak be either observed or somehow mathematically documented when we know where we are headed will result in many extra deaths. Insanity is the insistence on continuing to do what doesn't work.

Quit being insane.

Not trying to be picky, Thatsit, but unless you have another graph posted, that I couldn't find, it is a red arrow not green. (also a darling blue arrow there you didn't mention).

But on this:

"The 4% projected growth and 8 mbpd shortfall? Talk about selection bias."

Yeah, you see a lot of that type of nonsense. The problem is that it completely undercuts what is a serious problem. The fossil fuel crisis is real, but anyone with half a brain sees that type of stuff, shakes their head and turns away....move along, nothing to be seen here....

Personally I have never claimed to have the advantages of half a brain, so would you who I am sure must have one, explain? All I can see is that you don't have the same tastes in Yogurt as HeIsSoFly. (no defense of He Is So Fly's tastes, merely an eyerolling questioning glance at you both.

Before Reagan no one believed anyone could be such a consummate @#$% asshole as to rip the solar water heater off the White House roof. Or that said consummate MF would then be lauded for the rest of time as the greatest aid and comfort a degenerate empire ever had. And a true Saint. Saint Ron.
I was one of those who went out of business and Saint Ron's let them eat cake BS, still wildly popular, was what did it.
May he rot in Hell.

Roger: Try to remember that it is not the 1970s. A lot of oil has been burned in the last 30-35 years (approx 80% as much conventional oil as is currently remaining in the ground). That is not chicken feed, and cannot logically be dismissed with constant references to the disco era.

Correct. But the geologic peak seems to be expressing itself as a logistic like peak right now. You have a myriad of factors that indicate peak or more correctly slightly post peak production. First the overall price of oil is high yet consumption is still increasing in the wealthier nations and it has reached the point that this in combination with the past peak in light sweet is straining refinery capacity right now in some nations. This is a mixed geologic peak logistic effect. We are so close to peak production that we are still in a sense in echo mode of the peak of oil consumption which is in fact still increasing in some nations despite the price.

The obvious political/military factors driven primarily by the high prices associated with peak and the overshoot of demand in the wealthy countries is logistic with geologic peak as the underlying factor.

So the way peak oil seems to play out as is numerous logistic problems or issues just like we have seen in the past yet this time they all seems to happen together and world oil production relentlessly grinds downward.

This logistic expression of peak oil goes deep. For example the continued gasoline problems in the US makes it profitable to move gasoline to the most expensive areas via tanker truck. This simple response causes two problems.
1.) The truck itself is burning diesel and suffering wear and tear transporting the gasoline long distance.
2.) This is gasoline that does not enter the pipeline system or exits early degrading our ability to pump gasoline through the pipeline system.
3.) It eventually causes prices to rise in to rise in the region that is losing gasoline to internal exports.

The point is this logistic problem and response is met with an action to address the issue that is itself negative and further worsens the problem. These logistic issues follow a sort of scaling law from small local actions to large actions such as invasion of Iraq. And you have secondary effects such as delaying paving a road because of costs leading to a road thats bumpy with potholes. Driving at speed on this rougher road lowers fuel economy and leads to a slight up tick in the accident rate which generally cases the loss of a automobile made from petroleum products in addition to the time and energy used by the response crew.

Small example but again you see how and unrecognized geologic peak leads to feedback effects that in general lower the amount of oil available and aggravate the situation. Thousands of these logistic feedback effects begin to operate in essence undamped as peak oil marches forward. Initially people will focus on these logistic issues claiming that are the reason we are having problems but in time the underlying real culprit geologic peak cannot remain hidden.

So geologic peak is tightly intertwined with the logistic effects this means its correct to treat geologic peak and in general resulting logistic expression as two separate independent problems. In general as you follow a logistic effect back to the root cause its either high prices or shortages both of these are the first order effects of peak oil. But the real problem is the vicious feedback between logistic problems and peak oil this is the real killer so to speak it is what is causing snowball and butterfly effects that will I believe will cause the situation to deteriorate far faster than most believe. The reason is that the only force that can dampen these effects is relentless and real demand destruction which means some significant parts of the worlds economy must effectively cease to exist in short economic collapse must happen somewhere in the world soon to lessen the strain.

My bet is on the Philippines as being the first reasonably sized economy to self destruct and act as the required release valve for the rest of the world. I think you can model the coming decline after peak oil as a combination game of Russian roulette and musical chairs with the loser of a round of musical chairs forced to play a round of Russian roulette.