Search The Oil Drum with Google
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Local
- Streets: Utilitarian Corridors or Livable Public Space
- Summer Streets a Success!
- Plan for Hydro-Fracture Drilling for Unconventional Natural Gas in Upstate New York
TOD:Europe
- Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008
- The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates
- The EU Strategic Energy Review: maybe not so depressing after all
TOD:Canada
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
- Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008)
TOD:ANZ
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- The Energy Blog
- Entropy Production
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- Calculated Risk
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
“My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel.”
—Saudi saying
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Prof. Goose, Heading Out, Stuart Staniford, Nate Hagens
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Gail the Actuary, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Khebab, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Local: Glenn
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
But Monsanto and others are working on higher yielding strains, while the new ethanol plants (powered by animal dung) are achieving very positive energy returns (3 to 1 being conservative).
Absolutely untrue. Some thought that's what they would get, but as far as I know E3 Biofuels is the only one to actually attempt to run a commercial plant off of biogas. And I have been told that things did not work according to plan.
But feel free to prove me wrong by showing me some references. I don't mean stuff that's on the drawing board. I mean stuff that has been demonstrated to get the energy returns you claim.
It's coming. New technologies take time. I'll put in some e-mails. Based on reporting, people were estimating much higher energy returns. Bio0gas is not science fiction.
Meanwhile a Michigan State U. prof says we can get 2 billion barrels a year from ethanol, see http://www.autospectator.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=9793 .
The professor said with methods dating back to WWII, we can get ethanol for $2 and change a gallon. Going forward, a lot less. Maybe he is optimistic, maybe he wants funding.
If this is true, in 20 years, between biofuels and PHEVs, Americans could dispense with fossil crude as source of power for cars, trucks. What an acheivement that would be. Right now, it seems doable. Crop yields keep rising, methods improve, the amount of acreage needed to win net energy gains is radically reduced. Corn farmers already worried about a glut. American farmers have never met a demand they could not glut. It will be fascinating to watch this time around. A minute percentage – I think 1 percent – of Americans work on farms now. What if the ethanol boom brings it to 2 percent? No sweat. Do we have enough land? Probably. Other inputs? Let's see.
I suspect we will see Peak Demand, at $60 a barrel, for fossil crude worldwide this year. US demand already down in 2006 from 2005, according to EIA. We have already peaked, if this price regime is maintained. Yet our economy keeps growing.
It is a remarkable era. We may be witnessing a transition to post-fossil society, and seamlessly, without major recessions. I hate to be the bearer of glad tidings in this forum, but it seems to be unfolding that way right now.
The only problem is that crude prices could collapse in the face of falling demand. Then we go back to our glutton ways. I suspect prices will tumble to $40 somewhere ahead.