The Oil Drum

45 comments on The Tragedy of Elections

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jkissing on May 29, 2007 - 8:51pm

The gov acts only when the wolf is in the door, eg after pearl harbor and 9/11.
If forethought is needed, pin your hopes on the private sector and the hidden hand.

imo po is here, c+c is down no matter why you think sa is down. Its past time for chris to adjust his bottoms up for higher decline rates. Meanwhile, total liquids are pretty flat if you correct ethanol for reduced btu content... some may be noticing they can't drive as far with the ethanol blends.

Price has already brought po to the poor, no doubt about it, but price has also caught the attention of the private sector, always sniffing for a buck or two. Solar is very close, I today wrote a speculative check for shares in a co that hopes to have printed solar panels on the market next year, and with prices under $1/w by the following year. Expensive silicon is not used, so there is no obvious limit to scale up, or lack of funding if demo targets are met.
Nukes are advanced into the planning stage, some southern communities have voted for them, imo they will be announced before the next election. Dems will not try to stop them whether elected or not... we are likely to see ng shortages and brown outs by spring 2009. The public, and some greens, will be clamoring for nukes.
First I've heard about 4x corn ethanol improvements... imo the public is becoming aware that food = fuel and vice versa, just as some of the right wing south are beginning to focus on the equation fossil burning = gw = hurricanes.

Things will get better and worse. IMO po is accelerating africa down, but the trend was already very well established by vast corruption and thuggery. Even saddam was not as bad as what we are seeing now in deepest darkest, quickly getting deeper and darker. On he plus side for all calling for a reduced population, disease and starvation is helping out on the dark continent.

Nothing wrong re: chavez' changing the energy rules/contracts, and nothing new re: chavez' social experiment. The former will net more money if oil continues higher while the latter will destroy all non-energy production, first and foremost food production, just as it has done on fertile cuba.

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CrystalRadio on May 30, 2007 - 12:04am

Hi jkissing,

On he plus side for all calling for a reduced population, disease and starvation is helping out on the dark continent.

Not what I would consider an elegant solution and not much of a plus, especially considering how little energy Africans are using compared to us. There is a solution though but I doubt that your version of the invisible hand of the market place would give it a thumbs up. You can find the solution in Heller's novel Catch 22, quite simple but considering the momentum of this society about as much of a solution in the short term as wind power is for the energy problem. We need something on the scale of nuclear energy to help here. Something like LSD in the Perrier or San Pellegrino, then maybe Helliers solution would work.

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Aniya on May 30, 2007 - 7:36pm

Hi j,

Thanks for your response. Agree w. your assessment on the arrival of "peak" - plateau at the very least.

If possible to continue the discussion,

1) re: " The gov acts only when the wolf is in the door, eg after pearl harbor and 9/11."

Some argue that "gov" was acting prior to 9/11, (and similarly WRT Pearl Harbor, for that matter) and the sense I can see in that, if "sense" is to be made of it - (not willful conspiracy, rather negligence and/or using one event to justify another)- is WRT Cheney's speech to the PI. And the task force, here's just one ref. http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1225

However, if you mean in "acts" in a positive sense, my Q is: If you were "The gov" - what would you do?

Or have you addressed this elsewhere?

2) "If forethought is needed, pin your hopes on the private sector and the hidden hand."

How do you see this actually working? (Or, do you?) Do you see subsidies, tax, etc. as playing a role? If so, a necessary one? Tangential one?

What about the prospect (as predicted by Deffeyes and others) of increased volatility in oil price being less conducive to "private sector" response?

Also, what about the "receding horizons" argument?

And, do you personally have the view such hopes are justified? If so, can anything be done to enhance this route, one way or another? And what about in relation to what I assume (take as) a cynical (expression of sadness) WRT Africa...my Q is: if something could be done in a positive sense, can you describe what this would be?

3) Just out of curiosity, if legal/kosher to tell, what is the name of the solar co?

4) re: Cuba. Not sure how to interpret what you say. I have a friend from Cuba who's offered to refute point-by-point, the apparent characterization of Cuba ("role model role") in the film. So, curious what you're saying here, if you might perhaps explain a little further.