Search The Oil Drum with Google
Recently on TOD:World
TOD:Local
- Streets: Utilitarian Corridors or Livable Public Space
- Summer Streets a Success!
- Plan for Hydro-Fracture Drilling for Unconventional Natural Gas in Upstate New York
TOD:Europe
- Oilwatch Monthly - November 2008
- The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates
- The EU Strategic Energy Review: maybe not so depressing after all
TOD:Canada
- The Round-Up: October 24, 2008
- Compressed Air Energy Storage - How viable is it?
- Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008)
TOD:ANZ
Blogroll
Energy Sites
- The Coming Global Oil Crisis
- Die Off
- Dry Dipstick
- Energy Bulletin
- From the Wilderness
- Life After the Oil Crash
- Peak Oil Crisis
- Peak Oil News and Message Boards
- Powerswitch
- Rigzone
- Matthew Simmons
- Wolf at the Door
Environment & Sustainability Sites
- The Daily Green
- EcoGeek
- Eco Street
- Green Car Congress
- Green Options
- green.alltop.com
- Gristmill
- RealClimate
- Sustainablog
- Treehugger
- WorldChanging
Blogs
- The Big Picture
- Casaubon's Book
- Cleantech Blog
- Clusterf
k Nation (Jim Kunstler) - The Cost of Energy
- David Strahan
- The Energy Blog
- Entropy Production
- European Tribune
- GraphOilology
- jeffvail.net
- Mobjectivist
- Peak Energy (Australia)
- Peak Energy (USA)
- R-Squared
- Resource Insights
Finance & Economics Blogs
- Calculated Risk
- Ecological Economics
- Econbrowser
- Environmental Economics
- Infectious Greed
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Organizations
“What people need to hear loud and clear is that we're running out of energy in America.”
—George W. Bush, May 2001
User login
Contact
- Content: editors at theoildrum dot com
- Tech support: support at theoildrum dot com
Personnel
- Editors: Prof. Goose, Heading Out, Stuart Staniford, Nate Hagens
- DrumBeat Editor: Leanan
- Contributors: ace, Engineer-Poet, Gail the Actuary, jeffvail, JoulesBurn, Khebab, Robert Rapier
- TOD:Local: Glenn
- TOD:Europe: Chris Vernon, Euan Mearns, Francois Cellier, Jerome a Paris, Luís de Sousa, Rembrandt, Rune Likvern, Ugo Bardi
- TOD:Canada: benk, Libelle
- TOD:ANZ: Big Gav, Phil Hart, aeldric
- Technician: Super G
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
Coal-to-liquid, and biofuels, along with PHEVs and possibly (I still hold out hope) flywheel cars. What we will see in the US, if oil stays at $60 a barrel or above, is a radical reduction in fossil crude oil demand in the next 10 to 15 years. Sheesh, we likely will see typical commuters get 200 mpg, as their daily commute will be bettery powered. What will this do to crude demand, especially when replicated worldwide? PHEVs hitting showrooms in three years. Big problem: US fleet of 220 million cars/trucks cannot be retrofitted. One might want to enter scrap metal business now (steel prices high too).
China? Planting millions of hectares of jatropha, and just struck gas, like enough for 60 years.
The great boom in crude demand from India and China? What if they mandate PHEVs as national policy, before they build up huge fleets? Makes sense at $60 a barrel.
We may see Peak Demand a good generation before we see Peak Oil, if OPEC, the hedge funds and doomsday hysterics can keep the price of at $60 or above. (Even RR says we may not see PO for 10 years) Most likely the price will crack sometime before that, like it has so many times before.
What a load of bollox
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Yeah,
It's Hothgor. What else do you expect?
I called him as Hothgor on his first post.
The obsession continues.
No kidding, He's still obsessed with us.
Who's Hothgar? Sounds like one of the Vandals at the sack of Rome.
Antoinetta III
A III, Where have you been for one year and 32 weeks?
China's Gas find was only mentioned with the words "At present day usage levels" that it'd last 60 years. HYPE. Given their rise year on year averages they will use that stuff faster than you can shake a stick at.
As far as 220 million cars being replaced anytime soon by an all PHEV or other niffty energy saving device, take a long hard look at those last 6 Zeros. That is MILLION not not something smaller. At around a guess of 250,000 new energy sipping cars being built at this time, the whole fleet is not going to get dented soon. If every Car company made energy sippers then you might get 2 million to 4 million new replacements a year, but that is still a big IF.
The only reason OIL will fall is if the demand goes away. And that is not something I see going away any time soon.
T. Boone Pickens launched a chain of natural gas stations for natural gas cars.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2007/pi20070525_526064.h...
Pickens is expecting that oil and gasoline demand will rise, their prices will rise, which will spur further interest in alternative fuels, and then this investment will turn a profit.
As the article points out, the market is currently more interested in ethanol.
They're both interesting investment opportunities, but neither a solution for how to continue business-as-usual.
possibly (I still hold out hope) flywheel cars.
Like the 'lets build big reactors' crowd, your desire ignores the failure modes.
this is new to me have they re-invented the flyWHEEL ?
this is new to me have they re-invented the flyWHEEL
That is what Benji needs to answer. I've put out the question, lets see if he's got something to say to back up his wish.
Flywheels, in theory, are absolutely wonderful. Back 25 years ago, during another "energy crisis" that was to plunge us into eternal darkness, flywheel research was ramped up, though the dollar numbers were still small (colleges making test buses etc). New composite materials, use of vacuums and magnetic bearings made flywheels seems so tantalizingly close. If you can get a flywheel to work, it stores more energy than a battery of equal weight, and can be charged quickly.
Evidently, the technical or commercialization problems beat the engineers back then. I have long rued that fact that we did not then 27 years ago, and have not, launched a Manhattan Project for flywheels, with a few billion behind it. Several teams got darn close to something good. All teams felt there was real promise.
I see nothing wrong with cars that tap into an electric grid, which itself is being increasingly fed by solar, wind, nukes and other renewables. Who doesn't want cleaner cars which run more cheaply, while reducing a crippling dependence on foreign oil (mostly owned by despots)? If this is the Peak Oiler's view of a bad thing, I want this bad thing. (By the way, is there anything on which the Peak Oil crowd is positive, or likes? Is every positive effort appears regarded with fear and loathing, apologies to Hunter.
By the way, you guys should check out CERA's website from time to time, to balance your viewpoints. I am not saying CERA is right and the PO crowd is wrong. But I advise everyone to read up broadly.
I agree that, unfortunately, the huge fleet of US autos and trucks stands in the way of radical reductions in fossil oil demand quickly. But, at $60 a barrel, we will see radical reductions in the five to 15 year period. Given that such similar radical reductions will be going on all over the world, I think it is very fair to ponder whether we have hit Peak Demand long before we hit Peak Oil, if this price regime can hold. The more I read broadly, the more I suspect oil is going to crack. Too bad, a lot of alternatives are going to be stuffed back into the back closets again.
There might be something useful at the CERA site, but considering the pandering corporatized drivel that their ongoing string of predictions seems to represent, I can't be bothered. I did peek in about 6 months ago for some reason, but found little that kept me there.
To put my refusal in context.. If I wanted to broaden my perspective on spiritual matters (as I often do), I don't feel as if I'd need to read up on Pat Roberson or the Branch Davidians 'To get the whole picture' There are better voices out there to challenge your assumptions against. Vested Interests aren't usually that interesting.
Flywheels, in theory, are absolutely wonderful. Back 25 years ago, during another "energy crisis" that was to plunge us into eternal darkness, flywheel research was ramped up, though the dollar numbers were still small (colleges making test buses etc). New composite materials, use of vacuums and magnetic bearings made flywheels seems so tantalizingly close.
And this addresses the failure modes exactly how?
If you can get a flywheel to work, it stores more energy than a battery of equal weight, and can be charged quickly.
Not a failure mode - but exactly where is the electrical grid going to come from to do this 'fast recharge'?
And this address the failure mode how?
The original question was addressing the failure modes. You have not done this.
If you don't know an answer, say so. Right now, you are avoiding the issue of failure modes.
People continue to try to equate re-filling their gas tanks with storing energy, when in fact the two things are not similar. When you refill your tank with gasoline, you are not recharging anything or storing energy in anything, you are simply moving material - the energy is already stored in it. When you look at trying to actually store an equivalent amount of energy in a similar amount of time, especially from an electrical source, you soon realize the problems. It does not matter WHAT you try to store the energy in, it takes a hell of a lot of power to store energy of such quantity that fast.
It's hard enough trying to just transmit the amount of energy needed to move several thousand pounds a couple of hundred miles at speed without issues (i.e. what is done with a conventional engine and drivetrain), let alone coming up with a media that can repeatably charge and discharge that energy.
The operating words in this fantasy about flywheels are "in theory".
As Mr. Cole can't be bothered to respond - I want to make sure that the archives have info as to why his dreams are a bad idea.
Energy in a flywheel are a function of mass and speed. More mass, more speed more energy storage.
1) Flywheels will act like gyroscopes - so in a moving application they will resist turning.
Not a deal killer, but a problem.
2) Cars get in accidents. If the flywheel is damaged it can come apart (and the energy that was in the motion will still exist and now be in the shards of material) or come loose from its bearings (thus a large spinning mass will be free to hit other things)
This is the deal killer.
Feel free to offer why these are not concerns BenjaminCole