The Oil Drum

The annual growth of forest in Sweden is around 80 million solid cubic meters, or approx 9 cubic meters (at least 18000 kWh or 1800 liters of gasoline or 450 gallons) per capita. We are nine million people.

Today Sweden derives it's energy from the following sources (off the top of my hat): 20% nuclear, 20% hydro, 40% oil (almost entirely transportation) and 20% other (including biofuels, industry heat recycling, burning waste - almost no landfills anymore).

Less than 10% of the forest growth goes to biofuels, the rest is refined using hydro and nuclear power into paper pulp, paper or processed timber (two by fours etc) and exported. We export our energy surpluses (a significant portion of the nuclear and hydro goes into the paper industry or metals (primarly iron/steel)) as refined raw materials, which pay a lot better than wood pellets or firewood.

There would be no problem increasing the biofuel portion of the forestry if need be, but it would kill off quite a few jobs in the paper industry. This illustrates that the immediate effects of peak oil, at least in Sweden, will be economic. About 250 000 people are employed in the automotive service sector (tires, workshops, gasoline stations, roadside restaurants etc etc) or automotive industry (Volvo/Ford and Saab/GM). If driving would decrease by 50%, 50% of those jobs would be lost, which would be a significant part of the workforce.

If push comes to shove you could run the entire diesel fleet of harvesters, carriers, tractors and trucks on wood chip gasified producer air. Did it in the past (WW2), could definetly do it again.

Myself, I'm a net energy producer, I sell more energy as firewood than our household and farm consume, including electricity and all fossil fuels even private use (but excluding emergy in bought equipment which is a bit difficult to calculate. Emergy in our own improvments and maintainance of forest, fields and structures is included though). Firewood pay better for the primary producer than selling lumber as paper pulp material, and most Swedish small houses have at least a wood stove as backup, and 400 000 houses heat with wood furnace coupled to watertanks. No problem finding buyers for firewood.

We heat our entire 2000 sq ft house using a single american Vermont Castings wooden stove, but then the house have been properly insulated in recent years, even though it was originaly built 100 years ago.

Sweden could be self-sufficient in energy, but it would require sacrifices, and walls towards the rest of Europe. However, we're members of the European Union, which has stated that all member states should share their energy resources, so we will be in the shit with the rest of them. At least peacefully, as we've dismantled most of our military anyway so we wouldn't be able to keep it to ourself anyways.

At least the climate keeps most people away, but global warming may change that and there goes the advantage of our sparsely populated country...

I have been to Kotzebue one summer many years ago. I remember it as being totally flat without any trees within perhaps tens of miles. We flew in low on Alaskan Airways and it was all lakes and tundra as far as one could see. It is very different from Sweden at a similar latitude. I have been to Northern Norway and the trees near Harstad, for example, grow to only around one meter in height. Also, they are all bent over in the prevailing wind direction. Quite miserable.

Som norrlänning har du antagligen rätt, Kenneth. Kan vara svårare i de mer välbefolkade delarna av södra Sverige.