Right on. What industrial farmers call "soil." is really just dirt. it is a dead medium in which crops are essentially grown hydroponically w/ fertilizer. Genetics only increases the ability of the crop to utilize more nutrients but not increase the "efficiency" of the crop. There is no way to get something for nothing in this game. THis whole type of farming has no future long-term.

Dear Peak Oil Tarzan;

I am intimidated by your moniker, but here is a link: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/AgProductivity/

It shows farm output per input rising about three times since 1948.

I do not know how the USDA calculates everything. But, it makes sense. Farming is a form of manufacturing, and output per worker and unit of energy has been rising for decades as well in manufacturing.

In all, this is good news. We can expect farm output per input to rise for many decades hence, if the past six decades are a clue. This is especially good for ethanol and biofuels, which I contend is still an infant industry.

We have been growing jatropha for oil just a few years. Algae still just a hope, not a reality. Corn ethanol output only got serious in last two years – and only now are the new generation ethanol plants being brought on line which promise 5-1 positive energy returns.

It is reasonable to hope that, even with the so-so crop of corn, we can acheive very high single-digit ernergy returns in 10-20 years (7 to 1 , or 8 to 1).

As crop yields are rising 2 percent a year, and if PHEVs come on, this may move us huge steps to a post-fossil economy, long before we run out of oil. I think we can acheive Peak Demand for fossil oil a good 10-20 years before Peak Oil.

Last year, world crude demand grew by only 0.9 percent, after growing 3.1 percent in 2004, and then 1.8 percent in 2005. Check with EIA, these are hard stats.

One more year like the previous three, and we are at Peak Demand.

It may be game over for the fossil boys, any day soon.

The problem is, crude prices may collapse, wiping out the alternative fuel industry for another 20 years.

Eric-

Monsanto put out press releases a few years back, heralding new corn strains selected for ethanol. My layman's understanding was that the better corn was the result of simple selective breeding. Going forward, I gather they intend to introduce corn which is somehow the result of genetic research.

Water? I know nothing about water, except that I drink it. But, if we can build a an oil pipeline all the way across Alaska, why can't we build a pipeline from Lake Superior (a practically infinite source) to the Midwest or wherever water is needed? My layman's understanding is that the water in Lake Superior is good.

You don't have a car? And you are in a non-urban environment? Really? Cool. But do you have a horse, or mule? I am not asking these questions to be snotty. I really want to know. You are on the Internet, so I assume you have electricity. From solar panels, or are you on the grid?
For 10 years I lived w/o a TV. Now I live in an Airstream trailer, but my wife wanted a TV. I walk to work, but I have a car. 1986 Isuzu Trooper. I get carp sometimes out of the LA River, and grow vegetables.
Check out what China is doing in Indonesia with jatropha. A $5 billion, 2.47 million ace jatropha plantation. When up and running, it is hoped it will produce just under 60 mby (year). That is about 2 days US consumption, From one plantation. Which will never be depleted.
Personally, I think we have to go to PHEVs and biofuels. We can make enough biofuels, if we use PHEVs. We are just learning now how to make biofuels. But I am sure my fellow man will get better and better at it.
I deeply respect and admire scientists and engineers who can solve riddles for the betterment of the rest of us.
I hope we can make a more prosperous and cleaner world. I don't hope it –– I know we can. I can see it. The technologies being created in the last 20 years are marvelous.
I agree that many Westerners live a wasteful lifestyle. But when you need serious medical care, or to talk on the Internet, or the telephone, or see a terrific art performance on TV, or have a varied diet all year long, or go to a wonderful library full of books, or fly an jet to Thailand, think about wha happened to allow you to take advantage of these modern inventions.
It is pretty easy to snipe from the sidelines. It is a lot harder to actually solve problems.

Precisely... The only way farmers make money is if they are heavily subsidized--and mostly even then it isn't the small/mid-level farmers that are *really* reaping the benefits, although a rising tide does lift even the little boats a little... It's for the large part the argibusiness giants which benefit from the subsidy--as they are the ones that can really bank all the politicians.

The FDA and monsanta have had a revolving door during the Bush Admin, but I'm sure it is/was little different under DLC democrats.