107 comments on Wind power: some lessons from 2006
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107 comments on Wind power: some lessons from 2006
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GAIA Host Collective
Thanks for the article! The questions your article provoked in my mind are:
1. Why the unstable regulatory environment in the USA?
2. If windpower is such a good deal for utilities, why are they not jumping on the bandwagon to build more windpower and to demand that stable regulatory environment to help the windpower industry predict demand for its products?
By the way -- what a fine photo. Where is it taken?
Thanks again for the fine article!
Beggar.
I have been asking myself the same question. As far as my local utility, my guess is inertia and a traditional perspective that keeping prices as low as possible is the mark of a good utility. Throw in an almost complete lack of environmental consciousness and you have a winner. While wind may be "competitive", that doesn't mean it is the cheapest or most convenient source. The people at my local utility don't want to get out of their comfort zone and just follow the rule, "go with what you know".
In my case, we are also exploring ways to take them over. They do, after all, have a utility board who, in theory, could be replaced with some more progressive voices.
tstreet, I think that your comment are on target.
Oddly, we have plenty of potential for windpower here in Minnesota, but the utility company is painfully slow in developing this resource.
I would think they'd want to get out in front and be on the cutting edge.
hi beggar -
Can this sort of chart add some input to the reasons why Minnesota is not jumping high for WTs?
note) the vertical axis zero level, is actually a windspeed of 5 m/s ...
Im not against windturbines - BUT they have their issues (!)
before you do anything this is only west denmark data.
take east, south, and north data, sum them all together to see what the TRUE capacity factor is.
You see, Denmark is pretty big, wind may be blowing somewhere and not elsewhere.
You could even make a model, determining the distance to the load and calculated the transmission losses for each windfarm, then we would be getting very accurate results.
Gilgamesh - you claim : " Denmark is pretty big, wind may be blowing somewhere and not elsewhere", is wrong !
Well for one,Denmark is a PRETTY small place - expect the same weather "all over the place" if you ever go there.
West Denmark, Jutland, is actually the big-chunk making up most of Denmark.
whatever - and as I say WTs have their issues , dont you agree ?
Sorry to say: No. Denmark is pretty small. About the size of a coffee-cup. Only if you take greenland into consideration, it becomes much bigger.
The current design WTs have an undersized generator (weight on top of a tall tower) that "maxes out" well before cutout speed. So much of their production is at constant output, hour to hour.
Also Denmark is NOT very large and hence, not very geographically diverse. Larger areas will show less variation.
MN is approaching the 1 GW of installed wind power from memory. Equal to 1 nuke on a windy day.
Best Hopes for more wind power,
Alan
I was watching a documentary oabout factory that makes Wind Turbines in Germany and was wondering why the Turbine had to be at the top of the tower? Particularly the land based ones. Now I am no engineer but it looked like the turbine is geared anyway so why not have a shaft leading to the bottom of the tower? I accept that there may be some loss of energy but they would be so much easier (cheaper) to maintain!
Terb bulls eye
- and exactly what I have been trying to figure for years now...!
The problem with the WTs are the enormous torques they must endure, particularly the start momentum ... the forces involved chew gears like kids chew gum.
So adding a 90dg angular/beveled gear would probably add to these issues - and a loss of maybe 20% ...
The larger 5MW WTs are really heavy up there, the Nacelle with components plus the 3-blades weigh 310 tons - OR the same as 310 nos of 1ton automobiles - IT all put on top of the tower ...wow.
These 5MW WTs need to be started up by a separate motor, in order to start their mission. An average tower is at some 5 million Pound Sterling - only the tower.
... and it all done on purpose at free will – peak-energy is around and we scramble for solutions – the power table submitted tells me all (!)
see the below image for the innards of a typical turbine.
This is the fellah I described above - M5000 Multibrid - How do they do this ...? I mean it is impressive stuff, but is it smart anymore - for such intermittant power. I read somewhere ( iI think Edmonton/Calgary ?- Canada) the local grid had too many WTs in their mix, rendering disruptions at low winds ... too many eggs in the same basket ... the WT basket(!)
The airbus A380 is maximum large as per overall size, had they made it larger, AND they had to alter the airports as well.... there is a limit for "stuff" -
Is the Estes Park utility a co-op or a municipaly owned utility? The only municipal utility I know of in Texas with a progressive attitude towards wind is Austin Electric Power, AEP. They offer a wind-only option, but the rate is higher than standard power.
In Texas Green Mountain offers rates at the local private utility's "price to beat". Galveston, my home is at 14.8 cents per kilowatt hour. But, you can't get Green Mountain in areas with a municipal power company or a co-op; those area's remain as controled areas when the rest of the state was decontrolled . A couple of the main electric providers, TXU and Reliant offer a clean option, but its at a couple of cents premium to their regular price. They both are also building windfarms as well as coal plants.
Estes Park is a municipal utility that is not subject to the state's renewable portfolio standard, a major oversight or possibly a response to political pressure (although my local legislator claims not).
Excel, which covers 82% of the state is required by law to meet an RPS of 20% and provides credits of $4.50 per watt for solar energy, including net metering. They also have wind turbines to fill out their portfolio. They don't engage in any of this voluntary nonsense; they just fold any additional costs into the rate structure.
I think buying green power voluntarily and paying extra is mainly a feel good exercise which, I admit, I do. But the more I think about it the less good I feel when no one else is doing squat.
The regulatory environment got caught up in two different things; the PTC came up for renewal in 2001 (it had been put in place for 10 years, IIRC) and was only renewed for 2 years each time - I think that was because it was part of the infamous energy bill that never went anywhere, and temporary measures had to be taken when it would become clear that the energy bill would not be passed in time.
As to utilities, the fact is that gas used to be ultra cheap. It's only been in the past 2-3 years that natural gas prices have started pushing power prices up significantly. Until then, wind was still more expensive, and green considerations were not as prevalent as today (after Katrina and 'an inconvenient truth').
Even today, investors are not willing to bet on gas prices remaining where they are (a level where wind power is cheaper). It will take a few more years of high prices.
The Alberta bitumen mines should really suck up the natural gas in the Canadian market, and possibly the northern Rocky Mountain province of the US. I think a gas shortage may really be fixing to start.
Also, if the companies in the Green River Oil Shale play actually build some plants, they'll use a gang of electricity and natural gas for processing, particularly for in situ syncrude production.
Jerome, have you read Dave Cohen's Key Post "Running with the Red Queen" in theoildrum archives? It shows the depletion status of North America and shows that new NG well deplete an average of 32% in their first year.
1. Poor political leadership
2. Poor corporate leadership