The Oil Drum

Well, the cry wolf syndrome is a problem for more than just PO -- this is also true for the whole environmental movement. A lot of the stuff predicted back in the 70s was premature (but not otherwise wrong).

This is mostly true except for the part that it was "premature", especially with respect to climate change.

The underlying cause for concern always was and still is that of run-away Climate Change. GW concerns really started in the 1980's. Twenty years later we are undergoing an anthropogenically enhanced abrupt and non-linear (unpredictable) climate change -- one that for all practical intents and purposes will likely be very soon humanly irreversible.

Was it really "premature" to warn of this then?

According to James Hanson, from an adaptation of a talk delivered in February, and printed in The Nation (May 7.2007 issue):

"There's a huge gap between what is understood about global warming by the relevant scientific community and what is known about global warming by those who need to know: the public and policy-makers. We've had, in the past thirty years, one degree Fahrenheit of global warming. But there's another one degree Fahrenheit in the pipeline due to gases that are already in the atmosphere. And there's another one degree Fahrenheit in the pipeline because of the energy infrastructure now in place--for example, power plants and vehicles that we're not going to take off the road even if we decide that we're going to address this problem.
"The Energy Department says that we're going to continue to put more and more CO2 in the atmosphere each year -- not just additional CO2 but more than we put in the year before. If we do follow that path, even for another ten years, it guarantees that we will have dramatic climate changes that produce what I would call a different planet -- one without sea ice in the Arctic; with worldwide, repeated coastal tragedies associated with storms and a continuously rising sea level; and with regional disruptions due to freshwater shortages and shifting climatic zones."

Had we thought to address this as a serious concern, worthy of the precautionary principle, even 15 years ago we wouldn't be faced with the dire problem we are today as Hanson (among many, many other scientists) now sees coming no matter what we do. For civilization as we know it it will likely prove to be an unstoppable disaster.

Once set in motion climate change is a beast and will not readily relent to our late and still haphazard efforts to mitigate it. The lesson is a tragic one, in that those who were accused of "crying wolf" back were not at all premature with such an intractable threat.

Instead of learning our lesson, today's PO promoters are in the same boat that CC theorists were in 20 years ago. There is another "freight train coming down the tracks", which according to the Hirsch Report (along with many, many other thinking people, like ourselves):

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." {my emphases}

Among their quoted conclusions:

• World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
• Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
• Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”).
• The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from transportation sector).
• Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
• 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
• A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
• Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.

Gee, this all sounds awfully familiar.

By the time we do wake up to recognizing PO for what it is, like CC, it will be too late to do much to mitigate the worst of its effects upon civilization as we know it.

By my way of reckoning, this new crying wolf "research project" is only interesting in the same way that any of us cares to give studied witness to the progression of our ultimate demise. For myself and civilization as I know it, I've grown weary of this new yet same old drama.

Of course it ain't over til its over, but the plot is essentially the same and I see no reason to believe the outcome won't be any different than the CC one already set in motion.

It really is a once in a long historical lifetime we are stuck in, and all I can do is sit back comfortably while preparing as best I can to enjoy the show while it lasts. Tragically, so it goes...

I've also noticed the stark absurdity of the 9/11 "truth" demographic when it comes to acknowledging elementary geology. Obviously an interesting psychological phenomenon--or, more realistically, *problem*. I don't know if this is the appropriate place to ask, but when you say tin-foil-hat-wearing do you mean the the government had prior knowledge of 9/11? I always tended to think that our government is way to inept to organize such a murderous conundrum, but I know history has a lot to say in opposition.

Regarding the cry wolf syndrome being indicative of the problems of environmentalism, you are certainly right that the massively incorrect predictions emanating from the late '60s and early '70s gave ample firepower to propagandists in the opposing camps (Hoover, Heritage, Hudson et al). But in reality, there is no big conspiracy. Just a government that Madison set up to keep the wealthy business classes--now morphed into corporate descendants--in power over the economy. In the early 20th century this just became an industrialized version of Madison's experiment, and along with industrialism came an explosion of media, almost entirely corporate owned. So, to sum up, our society's psychological fabric consists of private interests and propaganda--the two pillars standing in the way of, for lack of a better term, the "awareness train". Entertainment is the best propaganda you can buy. These pillars have been in place since slavery, and they still impede consciousness raising to this very day... However, in addition to private interests and propaganda, we can also throw in the sheer imaginative ability of the Homo Sapien. We may be sick little monkeys but we're also quite stunning in our abilities of invention (think religion, for a good sprawling anthropological example) and intelligence (think math, science).

Point is...

I'm sure that even if the horrendous predictions made by prominent academics in the 70s were never made--that "environmentalism" still would be probably right where it is today... Which is to say, nowhere.

davebygolly, you succinctly wrote:

"The only thing PO does right now is say: do you see the freight train coming down the tracks?"

And the amazing thing is that many people do not--or they claim it's moving at .001mph and won't hit us for at least 30 years, and by then we won't even be standing on the tracks anymore... (We'll be living in our "sustainable" [subsidized] corn stalk homes!)

davebygolly wrote,

"One side note. I'm also one of those tinfoil hat guys on 9-11 (as is Colin Campbell along with some other PO people). The interesting part is that a lot of 9-11 people don't buy PO at all -- it's just a conspiracy by the oil companies to jack up prices. So while these people are able to adjust to the horrible implications of the 9-11 story, the idea that our whole way of life is not sustainable is somehow just too much to bear."

Well, in this particular case (again, it changes form if you shift to another part of the political spectrum) it is an ability to over fantasize. There is no direct link, to the extent that PO is related to 9/11... In my view the status quo explanation is correct. Government incompetency coupled with the blow back of a determined fundamentalist suicidal death cult. National security, to the extent that it works, is *supposed* to protect us. The 9/11 truth people seem to go the hot air route of BenjaminCole (just to continue upon my assault on him throughout this thread!) They say something is true--but do so without the backup of sensible argument coupled with hard evidence. They hem and haw for their "beliefs" in the the presence of devastating arguments against holding them (much like heavily religious, personal-god type people).

To the extent that there are questions about collapse, I don't believe they hold up. When the buildings began construction in the mid-60s they were a totally original design, no building of that stature had ever been constructed where essentially the exterior of the building would be holding together the structure. They used an entirely new system of building a skyscraper to... By the time they were finished, in the 70s the buildings were relics of an bygone era of building--but they obviously stood intact perfectly fine (that is until jetliners were flown into them at high speeds). That they collapsed, to me, is unsurprising and I don't believe one needs to imagine thermite in the staircases, etc etc, to conclude that they collapsed as a result the complicated physics of massive jet-liners slamming into very experimentally gargantuan buildings. Given how, and when the they were built, in addition to recognizing the immensity of them, it doesn't surprise me.

It is just inconceivable that my own government would "plan" the attacks--and that type of thinking gives the far left (of which I would count myself) a very bad name and makes me ashamed to be a liberal (as do very many other things purported "liberals" say and do.) I might also note here that there is probably some cognitive dissonance amongst those that can't believe that they came down as a consequence of the physics resulting purely from the impacts. I remember on that day, during the "event", while the two towers were will still standing--I don't think anyone imagined (or wanted to) that they would fall... Maybe this is part of it? I'm unsure, but I think there is some type of relation between the "truthers" and an inability to grasp, perhaps, American descent, failure, collapse (ironically enough), etc--ie, "it is all just the big corporations controlling us! But, everything will keep on going fine, we just hate them controlling us!" Of course strikingly, there are people on the otherside, who are evangelical about corporate benevolence and sacredness... Two sides of the same hysterical coin?

However, given all this (you started it, tin-foil-wearer! :-] ) I still wholeheartedly agree that our government did and has exploited 9/11 to the fullest extent allowable by human consciousness and has inexcusably whitewashed it--but that is just realpolitik. Iraq is clearly the manifestation of Hawkish tendencies in AEI and it's swarm of bees. And yes, that hive is essentially a strategic planning unit for US Imperialism and control of the world's economy, and energy reserves (not surprisingly--we've gotta use our half a trillion dollar military budget doing something!)

And when do we start to lose our grasp? Iraq is a harbinger of our inability to control a world that we have become dependent on.