The Oil Drum

Well, the cry wolf syndrome is a problem for more than just PO -- this is also true for the whole environmental movement. A lot of the stuff predicted back in the 70s was premature (but not otherwise wrong).

This is mostly true except for the part that it was "premature", especially with respect to climate change.

The underlying cause for concern always was and still is that of run-away Climate Change. GW concerns really started in the 1980's. Twenty years later we are undergoing an anthropogenically enhanced abrupt and non-linear (unpredictable) climate change -- one that for all practical intents and purposes will likely be very soon humanly irreversible.

Was it really "premature" to warn of this then?

According to James Hanson, from an adaptation of a talk delivered in February, and printed in The Nation (May 7.2007 issue):

"There's a huge gap between what is understood about global warming by the relevant scientific community and what is known about global warming by those who need to know: the public and policy-makers. We've had, in the past thirty years, one degree Fahrenheit of global warming. But there's another one degree Fahrenheit in the pipeline due to gases that are already in the atmosphere. And there's another one degree Fahrenheit in the pipeline because of the energy infrastructure now in place--for example, power plants and vehicles that we're not going to take off the road even if we decide that we're going to address this problem.
"The Energy Department says that we're going to continue to put more and more CO2 in the atmosphere each year -- not just additional CO2 but more than we put in the year before. If we do follow that path, even for another ten years, it guarantees that we will have dramatic climate changes that produce what I would call a different planet -- one without sea ice in the Arctic; with worldwide, repeated coastal tragedies associated with storms and a continuously rising sea level; and with regional disruptions due to freshwater shortages and shifting climatic zones."

Had we thought to address this as a serious concern, worthy of the precautionary principle, even 15 years ago we wouldn't be faced with the dire problem we are today as Hanson (among many, many other scientists) now sees coming no matter what we do. For civilization as we know it it will likely prove to be an unstoppable disaster.

Once set in motion climate change is a beast and will not readily relent to our late and still haphazard efforts to mitigate it. The lesson is a tragic one, in that those who were accused of "crying wolf" back were not at all premature with such an intractable threat.

Instead of learning our lesson, today's PO promoters are in the same boat that CC theorists were in 20 years ago. There is another "freight train coming down the tracks", which according to the Hirsch Report (along with many, many other thinking people, like ourselves):

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." {my emphases}

Among their quoted conclusions:

• World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
• Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
• Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”).
• The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from transportation sector).
• Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
• 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
• A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
• Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.

Gee, this all sounds awfully familiar.

By the time we do wake up to recognizing PO for what it is, like CC, it will be too late to do much to mitigate the worst of its effects upon civilization as we know it.

By my way of reckoning, this new crying wolf "research project" is only interesting in the same way that any of us cares to give studied witness to the progression of our ultimate demise. For myself and civilization as I know it, I've grown weary of this new yet same old drama.

Of course it ain't over til its over, but the plot is essentially the same and I see no reason to believe the outcome won't be any different than the CC one already set in motion.

It really is a once in a long historical lifetime we are stuck in, and all I can do is sit back comfortably while preparing as best I can to enjoy the show while it lasts. Tragically, so it goes...