107 comments on This Week in Petroleum 6-6-07
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107 comments on This Week in Petroleum 6-6-07
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GAIA Host Collective
One way to explain it--prices are up because of a demand curve shift, not because of a supply curve shift. That's the econ 101 explanation. We can get to marginal elasticities in a later course.....
That's possible.
I think it is partly because gasoline has been priced quite a bit below its inherent value. This is because the retailing of gasoline is hyper-competative. In most places there are dozens of nearby gasoline retailers all selling the exact same product and all advertising their prices on big signs for all to see. The result is that gas is very cheap relative to what it can do for you. Now that the price is rising, people complain because they were used to something cheaper, but it is still a bargain.
Peaople who use gasoline on a discretionary basis mostly (like for vacations, joy-riding etc) recognize that its still a bargain and aren't inclined to cut back. To the extent that higher gas prices cause some people to use less, it makes the use more enjoyable for those who continue to use (by reducing congestion).
People who have put their self in a position where they are required to use substantial amounts of gasoline just to accomplish the daily necessities of life are going to be squeezed, but can't give up the gasoline so they have to give up something else.
How all this summer fun is going to run? The standard response to blame Oil has been seen but there are a lot of people out there that don't read TOD that will start looking beyond to more realistic answers,... maybe.
My thought is that I would like this to happen gradually. I think that if the realization that there is more to prices, than gouging and lack of diligence, comes at too swift a rate then the wheels could come off the financial market cart and we could all be suddenly sitting in shit creek after breaking through the bridge of orderly conduct. (well that should bring the literati after me with pitchforks and rusty shovels). Anyway is our course to publish or not to publish, is it wiser to sit quiet pen on desk or take up electric publishing and disseminate widely? To warn or not to warn, that is the question. (Oh my they will beat me badly now). Rate of change laddies, rate of change what is the appropriate rate of public awarness change?
CrystalRadio, publish away, unless you've got the nation's attention somehow, you're not going to get a very wide audience. The way I see it, TOD and others have been announcing this with trumpets for years. And no visible change in the tides of public opnion.
Now if we could get Paris Hilton to start giving press conferences on peak oil... But I do think it would behoove all of us to warn our families, friends, etc, who are likely to be most impacted.
Hi sylviah,
I feel awareness in groups comes suddenly like a fire does once the kindling temperature is reached . I think with what has been happening through TOD's efforts along with these price hikes we could be getting to that point. (Remember 1973?) Once the fire starts is it controllable? Publish yes, but what? We don't want to be shouting fire in this crowded auditorium once the fire starts. Maybe more stories along the line of 'This way to the exit ladies and gentlemen'?
One hobby horse I have been riding, where the ecological bunch are missing it,is that it has emphasized the blood sweat and tears and not really touched what the upside of change might be. How about Westexas's ELP ideas with the codicil of 'and Enjoy it', because there will have to be enjoyment or that's it, enter Conan.
Publish yes, but what?
I am trying to "pre-position ideas".
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2006-05a.htm
http://www.lightrailnow.org/features/f_lrt_2007-04a.htm
Perhaps we will start mitigation beforehand, but we may only react "after the fact".
I want viable concepts to be scattered about that desperate people can grasp, instead of corn ethanol, sarconol and snake oil.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Hi Alan,
'publish yes, but what?'
I bought a nuke of bees the other day and today I put them into a hive ... those guys are fun (as long as you can keep them from 'dieoff') I once caught a swarm and looked like those pictures you see of beekeepers with beards and hair made of bees. Anyway maybe there is a real beekeeper on site that knows the stuff who could give a primer about bee keeping post P.O.?
Have Fun,
CR
After-thought ... maybe TOD could make a list of articles that would be good P.O. material and those who have the info could write them...start with of course Bee Keeping. :>)
I think Eric Blair said he keeps bees.. It was somebody who said that their hives only work organic crops, and are apparently healthy and fine. (Maybe a month ago or more)
Bob Fiske
Alan, I agree. Best to get some ideas for the MSM to grab ahold of.
Add to that list less than 6x per week mail service. 3 x?
Mail Service 3x/week when postal person has to drive more than, say, 8 miles for the daily route and 6x/week for walking routes and <8 mile routes. Perhaps 5x/week for routes in the 8.1 to 12 mile range.
An incentive to move into TOD ! And no energy is really saved by reducing walking routes. EV Postal Vehicles can work well for short routes with existing lead-acid batteries (perhaps with a PV Panel roof to self charge much of the time).
And that way I get to keep my 6x/week service (only back these last 4 months in New Orleans).
Good Idea,
Alan
I also added to my "Saudi Arabia has Peaked..." list the suggestion made by another TODer.
For six years, any car that meets Japanese or EU standards for safety and pollution AND gets x1.5 (50% better) mileage than that years CAFE can be sold in the US.
Re: shift in the demand curve
We can get to marginal elasticities in a later course
Shift to the Right
Have a good one,
Dave
I may have missed that positive news report about oil and gasoline, can somebody fill me in ?
Well, there was the new Expedition commercial that touted how fast one could load the family + luggage for an "outing" whilst their hapless neighbors were still packing/cramming their minivan.
If one looked at the marginal cost of operation between an Expedition and a minivan, the cost of that time saved should be well in excess of $10,000/hour.
And of course, Hummers were explicitly designed to appeal to the reptile brain, which operates under different demand curves (eat or be eaten).
Let us not forget the mother who dropped off Johnny at a new school in a Hummer and the other kids muttered "How cool" as Johnny confidently strode in the school door with his Hummer status.
Such is the power of advertising.
Best Hopes for Mammal Brain Thinking,
Alan
MTBE-free gasoline just tastes better! But seriously, population growth, economic growth, and growing numbers of automobiles/trucks/etc all act to shift the aggregate demand curve. That would account for higher prices with higher demand, especially if the supply curve is steep (relatively inelastic). As long as supply grows, we shouldn't expect to see "demand destruction" in the aggregate, because we have been seeing demand growth pushing up prices. Aggregate demand destruction comes (has come, will come?) with shrinking supply, and we will know it when we see it, because consumption will be lower and prices will be moooocho higher. Unless b.cole is right.....hah.