280 comments on Cyclone Gonu Thread 2-Muscat and Bandar Abbas now in the projected path of Gonu (updated at 8p EDT)
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As we know, Hurricane Hazel ripped up the US and into
central Canada 40 years ago.
Hurricanes in Canada? Thats not supposed to happen
Hurrican Juan (strong Cat 2) smacked Halifax in 2003...
New Gonu Thread on front page as of 2am, 6/6. Please place all new resources and insights there if you would. Thanks!
Exclusive Must credit THE OIL DRUM and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF.
KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-15 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards.
You know, I was going to comment on that light/moderate damage assessment - the assumption that the facilities are built to U.S. hurricane standards is not very realistic - as a lot of the infrastructure seen in the various aerial pictures demonstrates - no seawalls, dikes, or other barricades are noticeable.
Those facilities are getting hammered very hard right now - and the hammering will continue into the night, it seems.
I expect serious to massive damage for anything connected to shipping - they simply did not build to the standards of Atlantic or Pacific storms. Often, it is hard for North Americans to grasp how incredibly violent North American weather truly is.
Oman shut its oil exporting terminal at Mina al-Fahal for about two hours - it is open again now. The Omani Oil Ministry is reproting that the storm is weakening (as we see from the maps) and that oil drilling and refining activities are proceeding as usual. They expect some delays in crude exporting, but fewer than previously expected (unquantified).
The above all from Reuters headlines
From CNN -
'Oman's major oil installations, which were not directly in the projected path and nowhere near as extensive as those of its neighbors, continued operations but took precautions as Gonu approached.'
Interestingly, Mina al-Fahal is northeast of Muscat - and from all the imagery I can see, the storm hasn't even reached there. At least according to the information at https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/io0207web.txt
So it is good to see that the facility was shut down for two hours before a Cat 4/5 passed, and they are now confident enough to restore operations while the storm passes.
And from Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mina_al_Fahal
'Crude oil and refinery products are loaded on to tankers off Mina Al Fahal by subsea pipeline and SBM (Single Buoy Mooring) Systems.
We'll see what the storm surge does - after the storm actually arrives, that is. If I understand the Navy report, that should be in about 8 or so hours, though it is curving and no longer likely to hit Muscat directly.
A shipping agent told Reuters Oman's Sur export terminal, which handles 10 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas exports had been closed because of the storm and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal, that ships all Oman's 650,000 barrels per day of oil exports, was likely to shut soon.
http://www.gulf-news.com/region/Oman/10130181.html
http://www.gulf-news.com/region/Oman/10130208.html
http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070605-075542-4263r
http://www.gulf-news.com/nation/Environment/10130195.html
Does anybody know what is the nature of the oil likely to be lost to the market if the Mina al Fahal terminal suffers severe damage? ie light/heavy, sweet/sour? Is this premium oil that will be sorely missed?