"Economists have had a surprisingly large say in this discussion. Their view is that it doesn't matter whether oil production begins to decline or not. They believe that oil is like any other commodity, and that substitutes will be found. They also believe that scarcity will lead to higher prices which will lead to greater production and/or demand destruction, so that declining oil production will never be a significant issue."

This is an important comment. Years ago I told a senior professor at Stanford that petroleum depletion would irreversibly and radically alter the function of social economies worldwide. He shot back, without missing a beat, that before depletion occurred substitutes for petroleum would enter the market and a seamless segway would be obtained. He then made passing reference to the German production during the second world war of petroleum substitutes. My take on this professor was he was ignorant, arrogant and presumptuous (Brings to mind Rene Dubois statement that "Trend is not destiny.".)

Perhaps what will occur are failed attempts at substitutionthat will jolt our "leadership" to realize that future petroleum prospects are not what they used to be.

One thing I want to do is put together a piece on coal-to-liquid, talking about how much it would really cost, what it would require in terms of amount of coal per year, and how much gasoline this would actually replace. Also some of the many other issues - would we really have enough water in Wyoming to produce a huge amount of coal-to-liquid, or would we need to transport the coal to locations with sufficient water.

I talk more about the problem with economists in the article I wrote for actuaries Our Finite World: Implications for Actuaries"

One of the recommendations I make in that article is that actuaries begin to question economic models. Actuaries are not economists, but parts of their work are quite closely related to economics. Thus, actuaries should be in a better position to begin questioning what the economists are saying than most other professions.

I doubt that this is going to happen on any scale soon - economists must outnumber actuaries at least 100 to 1, and most actuaries are used to models that assume infinite growth.

<< My take on this professor was he was ignorant, arrogant and presumptuous (Brings to mind Rene Dubois statement that "Trend is not destiny.".)>>

Perhaps he has an MBA. I was told (at Stanford) that MBAs are "often wrong but never in doubt".