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Well, we have to wait and see how the cookie crumbles, but it needs to be put in context.
It isn't so much that anyone has any real interest in crashing the dollar.
It's more like with oil denominated in dollars the dollar becomes the reserve currency of the world which allows the US to run deficits and in effect have others pay for them. At some point people get fed up and even a giant can die the death of a thousand cuts.
I have no doubt that the ability of the US to run deficits and have others fund (not pay for) them is coming to an end, probably fairly soon. I do think the dollar is headed down and could possibly face some threat regarding its reserve currency status, although it is hard to see what would replace it.
The point is that it makes almost no difference what currency oil prices are denominated in. Firstly, oil can only be priced in one currency. All other citations are just a translation, or else there are arbitrage opportunities.
However, the price is just a price. Oil can be quoted at $70/barrel and paid for in Euros, Yuan, or pretzels if the two parties agree. I haven't seen any one produce evidence that EU countries pay Russia, Saudi or Iran in dollars.
However, even if they did, it still does make any difference. The value of the dollar is propped up by foriegn countries holding US assets, such as treasury notes. If countries reduce these holdings, which is quite possible, then the dollar will be threatened. If they maintain the holdings, it won't.
Price in this case is really just a measuring unit. Saying that quoting prices in Euros would hurt the US economy is like saying that converting highway measurements from miles to kilometers would threaten the auto industry.
Iran does not want to touch dollars because the US places restrictions on their ability to move capital.
I argued at great length almost two years ago that Iran would never successfully launch and oil bourse. I argued a year ago that Russia would not be able to launch a bourse that serves as anything beyond a local clearing house. So far this seems accurate. The bourses and dollar pricing of oil are non-issues and conspiracy fodder.
So, yes, the dollar could weaken, crash and/or cease to be the world's reserve currency. However, the threat comes from waning demand for US denominated assets, not from how oil is priced or traded.
I don't think the Iranian oil bourse is fully operational, and the Russians have said that is the direction they will move.
Conspiracy theorists, yada yada, I worked in high levels of corporations and sat in on tons of board meetings and had access to lots of data and over hearing conversations of CEO's of fortune 500 company's, you trying to tell me that people don't work in secret and do things to others to try and gain an advantage thru all kinds of means is one of the most ignorant statements people. make.
Learn what the real world is like skippy, and get back to me.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
you trying to tell me that people don't work in secret?
No, you're making that up.
We have to agree to disagree then.
Since oil is the primary commodity, if it is denominated in pretzels then people are forced to hoard or acquire pretzels. Doesn't matter whether baked, microwaved or digital. The digital version just allows for a bigger Ponzi scheme.
As long as the currency that is printed does not return to the country of origin it can be printed with impunity. If it does return then there is a cost associated with it. IMO this cost depends on a large degree on the interest rates (ie the higher the rates go the less of a free ride the US has and this is the underlying reason the market is so sensitive to rates).
The consumer is a convenient excuse, the big boys will make a profit either way because they hold the tiller and know in what direction the next steering inputs are going. This isn't a normal productive situation anymore, the US shuffles a lot of paper but produces little, it's a game of what Alice in Wonderland can sell to the uneducated sheeple.
People can see it and are bailing while the US is otherwise engaged because they know they don't have the "juice", the real question will one day be if the Fed has the balls to make the music stop leaving the Chinese standing. Or will the Chinese bail before it happens?