I don't agree its probably better to go forward than wait for the storm. If it was already in the strait.

You need ships that where loading or just loaded earlier and entered the straits after the storm entered the gulf.

Your example is probably not a good case either way.
I'm not sure they can even turn a VLCC around thats in the strait the shipping channel is very narrow.

I looked at the position of the J Bennett Johnson on June 5 13Z and retract the post below (still interesting so I left it). I thought that she was inside the PG on June 5th waiting.

On June 5 13Z she was 100 nm to the NE of Muscat in the Gulf of Oman and trying to ride out the storm. In 43 hours she traveled just 186 nautical miles (straight line).

She apparently transited the Straits of Hormuz on June 4th (or earlier) and then held position rather than retreat back through the straits (with some strong currents).

If one looks at the surge maps uniquely posted here, one will see the surge entered the PG. This means LOTS of water and strange currents. Thus retreat MAY have been cut off.

That water is now flowing back out of the PG and this may limit transits for a short time.

There would have been a short window with minimal currents in the Straits when the water had peaked into the PG but not yet started to ebb out. Some ships may have left then.

.................

The distance from the reported position of the J Bennett Johnson to Bandar Abbas is 597 nautical miles.

At June 7 8Z she was 441 nautical miles from Gonu (location June 7 0Z per USN)

Assuming 20 knots (close to max for a fully laden VLCC I think) that is 29 hours since being at the apex of the Straits of Hormuz with a transit of Gonu perhaps 18 hours earlier.

This means an unplugging of the PG no later than Jun 6 14Z (with some fuzziness as to the exact hour).

However, she was in the same position heading in (167 nm delta) on May 24th. About 11 to 12 days in the Persian Gulf.

She spent less time in the PG last time that there is good data, but so many variables that comparison is unwarranted.

I think that we have a decent number for the unplugging of the Persian Gulf by Gonu. Now a date and time for "plugging" of the PG by Gonu ?

As I said before, a longer route along the northern edge of the Arabian Sea (Coasts of Iran, Pakistan and India) should have been open on June 3rd, and perhaps the 4th if ships did not fear a sudden northern turn by Gonu.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/ops/IO022007/tracks.png

Alan

"shortonoil" at PO.com has been tracking ship movements. He posted this this afternoon:

There are presently 4 tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the Teno that is in the Straights, the A8IE8 which must have hugged the coast through the storm and the Maersk Karachi and the Dynamic Vision, both hugging the coast between Musqat and the late Sur. The A8IE8 must have sailed through the hurricane to get to were she is, crazy mother!

There are no ships in the Persian Gulf, so it will be at least two days before any ships can reach a useable port there, and a day and a half out. That is about an additional 50 mb lost to the world.

The Copiapo and the J. Bennette Johnson which were in the entrance to the Gulf of Oman early yesterday, must have turned tail and ran. They are now in the Arbian Sea. The J. Bennette Johnson must have really poured on the steam to get to were she is. Of course, if I saw a CAT 5 coming at me, I’d run like hell too.

I guess he's not short on oil any more. :-D