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145 comments on DrumBeat: June 8, 2007

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John McFadden on June 8, 2007 - 10:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The situation in Canada is similarly bleak. The National Energy Board is no better at forecasting than the EIA.

Canadian wells peak quickly and decline at an alarming rate. The NEB is suggesting we will have flat NG production with a small YoY increase from CTL.

Meanwhile, the MacKenzie pipeline is stalled, the government has put an end to the favorable tax structure the NG producers relied on, new NG is stranded in difficult terrain, costs are skyrocketing due to the tar sands, and drillers are idle this year.

My spouse is in Ft. McMurray this week on a federal government fact finding mission. She has met with oil industry executives, community groups, native groups, provincial and municipal leaders. Her focus is primarily on the municipal situation, which frankly, appears to be a disaster.

When she gets back I'll write up anything she shares with me.

Thus far, I've learned that the average income in Ft. McMurray is $81,000 and the poverty line is $71,000. Some days the local schools have to shut down due to the strong odors from the tar sands.

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westexas on June 8, 2007 - 10:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The most amazing thing to me about the tar sands play are the huge, virtually permanent, wastewater ponds, filled with contaminated oily wastewater. No one I know in the Texas oil patch would do that for two reasons: (1) It's irresponsible and (2) The regulatory authorities wouldn't let us do it anyway.

Good article by Byron King (2006 ASPO-USA) on the Tar Sands Play: http://www.energybulletin.net/22358.html

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Gilgamesh on June 8, 2007 - 12:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

olol 25km^2 of tailing ponds!

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Stoneleigh on June 8, 2007 - 10:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

John,

Could you email me at Stoneleigh2006(at)msn(dot)com please?

Thanks

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AlanfromBigEasy on June 8, 2007 - 11:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I would like to draw your attention to a post of mine last April 28th.

High Speed or just 110 mph Rail between Calgary and Edmonton ?

There has been some talk (and the province has even bought spaces for stations) of true high speed rail between Calgary and Edmonton. Cost Can$12 billion.

Ed Tennyson (retired transit expert with a nearly epic resume) posted the following:

Since money is the problem, be rational about it, Calgary and Edmonton do not have Japan's population, You can not do what they did or what France did. No one can juatify $12 billion for this, Those opposed can prove it should die.

I am not opposed to good passenger train service between Calgary and Edmonton but it must fit the market.

You will need electric eMU cars with very comfortable appertances but no locomotives,. Cruising speed would be 110 miles per hour, Just double track the present railroad and upgrade the track quality, New Jersey eMU cars have cruised at 104 miles per hour for 30 years, Getting to 110 is no big deal but that is the limit for standard track and power bills Such cars cost only $ 400 per hour to operate and maintain and can average about 88 miles per hour so the cost per passenger-mile will be only 12 cents per-mile using a conservative load factor wth some empty seats on most trips. Albertans will probably pay 25 cents per mile for such service so there will be 13 cents per passenger-mile to amortize the capifal. We can't subsidize everything.

With two million annual passengers there might be $ 37 million a year to support the capital investment. That would support $ 400 million in bonds, It would save a lot of oil that could be sold to tne USA for a good price to help pay rhe rest.

E d T e n n y s o n

Using standard costs, I came up with less than US$500 million to build a second track (with extra sidings), the stations, barn, a fleet 40 EMUs and to electrify the line.

About 2 hours city center to city center, Add a few minutes for a stop in Red Deer. Phase II could be from Edmonton to Fort McMurray.

Just a real world example,

Best Hopes,

Alan

I know of an Alberta utility that would be willing to install and maintain the electrical infrastructure and sell "power at the wire". Perhaps Phase II, Edmonton to Ft. McMurray could be Phase I ?

My eMail address is Alan_Drake at Juno dott com.

Best Hopes for Electrified Transportation solutions,

Alan

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John McFadden on June 8, 2007 - 12:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Some sort of mass transit is needed. Highway 63 is bumper to bumper. The current plan is to double it. My spouse was very impressed with the mayor. Perhaps she will be willing to put you in touch with her and the two of you can take it from there.

Stoneleigh, give me a few days and the three of us can get together. I'll email next week.

Right now, I have to go pick her up at the airport. Spent the morning cleaning the house :)

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DelusionaL on June 9, 2007 - 7:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Alan,
Regenerative braking with trains and hills? Does regererative braking already exist such as in MAX our light rail?

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AlanfromBigEasy on June 9, 2007 - 9:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

It is more or less standard on modern light rail lines. But I am not sure about MAX. Stops are the biggest source of regenerated power.

Portland Streetcar did not have it at first but they were talking about adding it during a tour I was on.

Best Hopes for Energy Efficiency,

Alan

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