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53 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - June 2007
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53 comments on Oilwatch Monthly - June 2007
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Great work, Rembrandt! Muchas Gracias!
It seems obvious to me that we are past the peak on crude, but the peak is being obscured by synthetic crude and ethanol. Since these fuels are the high priced stuff, their marginal costs are going to be the new bottom price for crude. Opec's cuts seem to reveal that they are trying to balance price and demand destruction (not big news) but their ineffectiveness at getting prices below alternatives shows their loss of control of this process.
Yeah, I know RR is going to argue. And we won't really have proof until exports are down at least 5%, but the continuing plateau in spite of large additions of ethanol and syncrude doesn't look good.
@oilmanbob
Thanks for your enthousiasm :)
I'm not sure whether we are past the peak of conventional crude, but the longer it stays on the plateau the more likely it gets. One of the reasons why I have started this newsletter, to monitor the situation.
I hope to return to some more accurate oil field projects forecasting in the summer, combined with this production dataset, it should provide a quite powerful tool for telling what is happening and wether the peak for conventional crude has occured or not.