 | DrumBeat: June 21, 2007 | The Oil Drum | Science and Technology Energy and Environment Subcommittee Action Today |  |
| Lies, damned lies and BP statistics | The Oil Drum: Europe | Carbon emissions: China no longer has any excuse to wait | |
139 comments on Will OPEC increase supply in the 2nd half of 2007? Or has Ghawar peaked?
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
User login
Personnel
Editors
Contributors
Peak Oil Primers
Archives
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
Vital Trivia
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License.
GAIA Host Collective
Remember, its possible the answers to both the title questions.....
(Will OPEC increase supply in the 2nd half of 2007? Or has Ghawar peaked?)
...could be "no".
======and===============
sure, Saudi could be on some sort of bumpy plateau or near peak. Also, alot of what I read assumes..i spose as we all do..that the current governments-of-the-day will continue to hold. But somewhere along the line, the Saudi monarchy/gov't may (will?) fail and then who knows what will happen, i.e. the "above ground factors" that folks are talking about in Nigeria oil situation these days
YES! :-)
But unlikely, as you say the political situation in KSA is dangerous, so to withhold oil at the risk of destabilizing the WORLD economies and which could reduce the prices of oil is a very RISKY play...unless you can't raise production and know it won't reduce the prices(ie. supply shortage).
Equally well the answer could be YES.
I, like quite a few others, believe SA locked in surge production capacity to produce maybe 2-3Mbpd of extra production, but only for a short period. Averaged over reasonable periods the trend can still be down, but with the occasional political induced 'spike'.
Its worth SA's while to create a short term constricted supply (say over $100 a barrel) to induce efficiency activities and reduce ongoing demand - then to ride to the news rescue with a surge of production. Not only do they get to be the good guys, they get to push the world demand economy towards behaviours they might have more chance meeting.
In fact, such a scenario is more likely than turning on the taps ahead of time, if we are close to a peak date.
It's worth remembering that (spare) pumping capacity reflects the amount that can be brought online within 30 days and that can be sustained for at least 90 days.
It's easy to prove the peak has not happened yet (either in KSA or the World) by having at least six consecutive months at or above levels previously established (and simultaneously proving you have the capacity to be the swing player in the oil market). For the KSA, that's 9.6 MMBPD. Globally, that's 74.2 MMBPD (C+C) from May 2005.
The "markets," quite frankly don't believe the situation will improve, as they have been in an extended contango. That may give partial explanation as to why crude oil stocks have continued to increase in the OECD.
But in terms of "days supplied in stock " the difference between the 5-year "low" (and the contemporaneous usage rate) and the current value is less than 14 hours (13.15 currently days versus 12.58 days at the "low" using C+C as the basis).
uh..... by who's definition does "spare" capacity equal production that can be brought on line within 30 days and that can be sustained for 90 days ?
I'll dig for the link but it was EIA that defined this.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3atab.html
In the footnotes its defined in several places.
So KSA may not be lying about spare capacity its just not what a lot of people think it is.